December 14th, 2020 at 9:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka There isn’t a Dodger fan worth their salt who doesn’t want their beloved team to re-sign third baseman, Justin Turner. But the cold, hard truth is that with each passing day, it is becoming more and more unlikely.
How so, you ask?
The reason, of course, is that the extremely popular Long Beach, CA native and seventh-round draft pick in 2006 by the Cincinnati Reds out of Cal State Fullerton recently celebrated (on November 23) his 36th birthday.
(Photo credit – Luis Sinco)
Obviously, that alone most certainly is not reason enough not to re-sign the unofficial team captain and well-established clubhouse leader, not by any stretch of the imagination.
No, the difficulty that Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman is having with re-inking the (now) free-agent, who finished the just-concluded 2020 World Series with a team third-best slash line (behind World Series MVP Corey Seager and Joc Pederson) of .320 / .346 / .720 / 1.066 that included two home runs, is that Turner (or at least GEM Agency, his representing agency) is reportedly seeking a three-year deal, which will put the heavily-bearded redhead at (almost) 40 years of age at the backend of such a contract; here again, something that Andrew Friedman is unlikely to do.
On Sunday evening, MLB Trade Rumors reported (via Twitter) that per Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe (subscription required), Turner’s representing agency is indeed seeking a three-year deal:
“Justin Turner is seeking a three-year deal, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That might be a tough sell for the 36-year-old. Three years might be the ask for Turner, who is represented by GEM Agency, but it’s just as likely a starting point to give their side some wiggle room in negotiations. That said, Turner was a central piece for the World Series champs, slashing .307/.400/.460 across 175 plate appearances in 2020. That’s good for a 140 wRC+. The immediate concern, rather, relates to his viability at third base that far into the future. His glovework earned marks of -2 OAA in 2020 and -1 DRS, both of which are palatable marks. But if there’s significant regression coming for Turner, the glove is where to look first. Regardless, for those clubs looking to add an impact bat in 2021, there aren’t many better than Turner.”
Although Turner has more than proven his value to the team during his seven seasons in Los Angeles, the brutally painful truth is that his best years are clearly behind him; at least as an everyday player. And even though it has been rumored (or at least suggested) that he could slide over to first base – a considerably less demanding position than ‘the hot corner’ – even this would (or at least could) be a bit risky for a guy who will be a month shy of 40 at the end of a three-year contract.
All of this said, and as duly noted by MLB Trade Rumors, that three-year-contract thing is more than likely a negotiating starting point rather than a hard-fast deal maker or breaker. But realistically, there (probably) isn’t a team out there that would be willing to agree to such a contract.
Then again, it is @redturn2 we’re talking about here.
Play Ball!
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I’d say this write-up is scripted in fairness and reality.
I would also go out a limb… and also say that JT’s preferred place of employment is in Los Angeles and that the guys writing the checks in Los Angeles can wiggle the agenda around to fit what their projections are. So I remain faithful.
The easiest thing the Dodgers as World Champs is to stay simple and add or subtract at the trade deadline.
Needs JT
Reliever plenty available. Treinen, Hand should be a non issue.
Signing Seager if possible? May not be.
Lux could be x factor.
I hate to say it but for three years, it’s time to let him walk. JT made his big money already. If he truly feels an allegiance to the only team that ever gave him a chance to play, they offer him a two year an incentive laden contract and he accepts. Otherwise he ends up in Toronto or some place like that where he probably won’t win it all and he doesn’t really want to be.
We have seen his playing time reduce due to injuries. We had to accept him running at 50% for nearly half the season because of chronic hamstring injuries. Those problems are going to get worse in his late 30s.
JT is a true Dodger and will always be a hero in my book for all that he accomplished but sometimes you have to draw a line and not be pulled by the heartstrings. I could see Turner managing the ball club one day.
I would not be concerned with 2 yrs at 30 and one yr at 10. Basically 3 for 40. He made about 20 this yr, so it’s like getting the third yr free.
I’m sure he would be DH part time 3b for the last 2 yrs for sure.
They may pivot to Bryant if JT wants 3 yrs north of 40. I think the Cubs would make a deal.
I think your approach is exactly what Friedman has in mind. Pay Turner over three years and lower the AAV for tax purposes. Turner’s adjusted WAR for 2020 was 3.5. Using fangraphs value calculation (~$8M per WAR) Turner is worth $28M per year – $56M for two years. $56M spread over 3 years is a $18.67M AAV — perhaps a home team discount — $48M for 3 years; $16M AAV. The Dodgers got a bargain in Turners previous contract; pay him now.
This would such a simpler question if the DH situation wasn’t still up in the air for 2020. Unlikely, but not completely ruled out. What is this “maybe”crap?
3 years for Turner would have to be at pretty low AAV. If his defense weren’t slipping it’d be one thing, but the market for well over 30 possibly position-less sluggers is not kind to players. I doubt Friedman would go much more than $30 million over 3 years. As great a guy as Turner is, AF won’t grossly outbid the field to bring him back.
I’ve been wondering if they could pull off a trade for Matt Chapman from Oakland. Lux as the centerpiece, and a few other pieces. I’d much rather see them trade for a hitter rather a pitcher. Pitchers break!
I think MLB teams know that the universal DH is here to stay, if not for the 2021 season then 2022 and beyond. My guess, the DH is a bargaining chip that MLB will concede to the union at some point in the next couple of months. MLB allowed “the camel to get its nose in the tent”in 2021 and will never go back. And, the DH makes Turner significantly more valuable to any team.
I would love to see the Dodgers trade for Matt Chapman (see Nov. 11 piece on Dodgers Trade Options), even if it requires an overpayment to the A’s. An updated package from my original scenario might be Lux, Chris Taylor, Tony Gonsolin, and Matt Beaty.
Dodgers infield: 1b – Turner/Rios; 2b – Muncy/Hernandez (Kiké re-signed with Taylor being traded); 3b – Chapman; SS – Seager. Future infielders Busch and Hoese.
“Pitchers break.” – One of the truest baseball quotes of all time.
This is truly sad news, I’m sure to everyone, I just hope something can be worked out.
I think the dodgers will pivot to Bryant if they are not going to re sign JT.
Bryant is a good choice; love to have him at 3b in 2021, then move to LF when Pollock leaves and Hoese ready to play 3b. Dodgers could also sign a one year third baseman like Todd Frazier to share the position with Edwin Rios, then sign Bryant as a free agent without giving up any prospects — or possibly Arenado if he is crazy enough to opt out of $165M remaining on his Rockies contract. If the Dodgers sign Kim, he could play 3b, or 2b. If 2b then Muncy could move permanently to third base with Rios at first.
First issue is JT. If we wants the money because this is the last bite at the apple then he could end up elsewhere. I think 3 at 40 with the assumption that the NL gets the DH would work for the dodgers. Plus Turner’s value is actually related to Rios being ML ready to step in throughout the season when Turner needs to rest and or is injured. Turner’s value to other clubs has to be based on him playing no more than 120 games at 3b in 21 and maybe less in 22 and 23. This diminishes his value IMHO.
So if JT gets a 3 yr north of 40 I don’t know if Freidman will do that.
Even a 3 yr deal for a 36 yr old infielder who is braking down often could be a risk.
I think Friedman and Dodgers would sign Turner today for 3 years/$40M ($13.3M AAV). Rios remains a big question mark for me at third base defensively.
Ruiz pulled from winter ball today. Is a trade coming?
Could be, but he wasn’t hitting and the Latin American leagues are infamous for cutting players who are not performing.
Rocky Gale’s job is safe though, right?
Whoops, I guess one of the brilliant minds let him go a while back. Just when my spirits were starting to lift, man, this os gonna ruin my entire weekend.