Dodgers Hot Stove Chatter – Trade for Blake Snell?

Less than one month after the last out of the 2020 World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays informed other MLB teams “they’re open to the idea of” trading 28-year old left-hander Blake Snell (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com).

Although the Rays aren’t ‘actively’ shopping the 2018 American League Cy Young award winner, they are sending the message to other teams that Snell is available … for the right return.

Snell limited the Dodgers to just two runs on two hits with four walks, and nine strikeouts in his 4.2 innings pitched in Game-2 of the 2020 World Series. (Photo credit – Chris O’Meara)

Considering that Snell is under team control for the next three seasons, at a very team-friendly $13 million AAV, the return to the Rays must be substantial for them to trade their ace.

Daydream a moment and imagine a starting rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, David Price, Julio Urías, and Snell for 2021. How soon can we order our World Series tickets?

But what package of Dodgers players/prospects will the Rays be willing to accept in return for Snell? We can only guess, but there are clues. The Rays are openly looking for a ready-now catcher, a left-handed reliever, starting pitching, and always well-regarded prospects to restock their farm system.

Would the Dodgers trade that group of players to have Snell in their starting rotation for at least the next three seasons and postseasons? Baseball Trade Values’ Trade Simulator considers that player exchange is equivalent to both teams, and the Dodgers would be pleased to make that deal.

What about that trade from the Rays perspective? Would that package of players be enough to send Snell to Los Angeles? Extremely doubtful, as Tampa is looking to be overpaid for their best pitcher – not equivalency.

Substitute catcher Will Smith for Ruiz, Dustin May in place of Gonsolin, and Victor Gonzalez rather than Alexander, and Snell would be wearing Dodger Blue tomorrow, but a trade proposal that would be easy for Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman to reject.

Is there a middle ground that would be acceptable to both the Dodgers and Rays? Here is one that might get a deal done:

  • Catcher Keibert Ruiz;
  • Pitcher Julio Urías;
  • Relief pitcher Scott Alexander; and,
  • Outfield prospect DJ Peters.
Dodgers top outfield prospect DJ Peters, who celebrated his 25th birthday on Saturday, will undoubtedly remain a key piece in any trade talks with the Dodgers. (Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)

According to the Trade Simulator, this would be a clear overpay by Los Angeles, and every Dodgers fan knows that Friedman is loathe to overpaying for any player. The question that only Friedman can answer is: “How much better are the Dodgers with Snell in the starting rotation in place of Urías?” Statistically, Snell is the known quantity as a starter with a 3.24 ERA, while Urias must still prove that he can succeed as a starter. Urias has made 38-starts as a Dodger, averaging less than 5 innings pitched with a 3.61 ERA.

At this point, a trade between the two teams does not appear likely. The Dodgers remain the favorites to win the 2021 World Series without Snell and are more likely to use their trade capital to improve other areas of the 2021 roster. And, the Rays will not accept anything less than an overwhelming offer for their star pitcher.

The Dodgers’ Hot Stove remains lukewarm.

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19 Responses to “Dodgers Hot Stove Chatter – Trade for Blake Snell?”

  1. Ron Cervenka says:

    Good stuff, Jesse. Thanks!

    As you know, I got to know DJ Peters rather well when he was at Rancho (we also share a birthday). He is indeed a great trade chip, although I would much rather see him in Dodger Blue. That said, he would (will) make it to The Show much sooner in another uni.

  2. Mario Gomez Mario Gomez says:

    @Dodgers I’ll pass on him and it’s too expensive to give up the farm system to get him unless TB Rays… https://t.co/flPspfSirj

  3. Branchy Beaver says:

    Do you folks honestly believe David Price and his 2019 ERA of 4.00 plus, is gonna improve after sitting out all of 2020. Especially in what will he his15th season or so? Knowing full well that he has $32 million coming to him and the Dodgers could just throw him a bone at some point and release him altogether. Julio is just now putting everything together, he’s much better then Price now and most likely in the future. Why trade him, for another arm that could break down?
    David Price is depth at best. He won’t last long at that – just my opinion.

    Blake Snell would be a dream trade though. But I agree, the take would he astronomical.

    DJ Peters can play his way into the line-up at anytime, just as others have done. But I agree with the assumption that he would get to the show quicker elsewhere.

    I read that JT would like a 3 year deal. He’s a solid right handed bat. He’s a leader, he can still play, the DH is just around the corner, the front office has a penchant for shifting wishes around to fit their narrative. JT is a pillar as far as community support and a World Champion.

    • Jesse Pearce says:

      Fair point about David Price – age, injuries, sitting out a year certainly raises some red flags. Hopefully the year off was spent conditioning so he will be ready when 2021 spring training starts. At this point in his career Price would likely do better in a six man rotation, and with the young arms the Dodgers could skip him once or twice a month. Not sure how Friedman will re-sign Turner, but I believe that is at the top of his to-do list.

  4. Stevebendodger says:

    Here’s the deal
    Price to the Yanks for a prospect. Yanks in dire need of pitching. Even if we send 10 mil withe deal.
    Then we send Ruiz and Gonsolin for Snell.

    BTW I don’t mind keeping Price as I think he’s got plenty left in the tank.

    • Rick says:

      Price would not like to go there. I doubt Hal or Cash want him either.

    • Jesse Pearce says:

      Not sure about the Yankees but there are plenty of teams desperate for pitching (Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, Angels all come to mind) that might be interested in a veteran who is only owed around $15M per season as the Red Sox paid down the rest. Whether the Dodgers trade for Snell, or Sonny Gray (who is reportedly being shopped by the Reds), Musgrove of the Pirates, or sign Trevor Bauer, Price being traded is a distinct possibility.

  5. Branchy Beaver says:

    I’d be happy if you turn out to be correct on Price.

    I’m still hedging my bets that he won’t. I think he will break down then drift away.

  6. Chichi2727 says:

    Not completely sold on Lux yet so try to sway LeMahieu to sign on. LeMahieu can play 2nd. or 3rd. base.
    Give Kike the 1 year contract he’s looking for – dump Price & let Hill & Baez walk.
    See about picking up one of the free agent top starters that are available (you can never have enough starting pitching)
    Start looking or grooming a new closer.

    • Jesse Pearce says:

      I think Lux may have played himself into the outfield, or for the right return a trade chip. the problem with signing Hernandez to a one year deal, then you have 3 shortstops eligible for free agency after 2021: Seager, Taylor, and Hernandez with no one in the system ready to step in as a full time shortstop (McKinstry is more of a utility player). LeMahieu looking for 4-years/$100M — I don’t see the Dodgers making that offer. If you look at DJLM’s career stats, he has had two sensational years, everything else is average to below average offensively. I am still hopeful that the Dodgers can sign the young South Korean middle infielder Kim for second base and backup at shortstop and third base.

  7. Chichi2727 says:

    Not completely sold on Lux yet so try to sway LeMahieu to sign on. LeMahieu can play 2nd. or 3rd. base.
    Give Kike the 1 year contract he’s looking for – dump Price & let Hill & Baez walk.
    See about picking up one of the free agent top starters that are available (you can never have enough starting pitching)
    Start looking or grooming a new closer. 5

  8. Frank says:

    The Farm system of the Dodgers has been one of the best in the majors ever since the start of the minor leagues. The riches that they have are a blessing to a GM. This team is already stacked with TEAM PLAYERS which is what Lux needs to figure out. He might be a super star in Wisconsin but not with this organization. I noticed several clips of him during the season where he separated himself from the team during a good moment or another teammate needed to be picked up. He was nowhere to be found. If I saw it, I guarantee that Roberts,Freedman and Magic saw it.
    Sorry kid but it takes a special player/man to be a Dodgers. Not just the Jersey.
    I would love to keep Kiki and or Taylor for 2b. Even Barnes can play 2b. Give him more ABs and I guarantee you that he will be hitting right at .300. He’s a smart ballplayer.

    • Greatness says:

      I am laughing. Barnes is never going to see a .300 batting average unless he´s looking at Mookie Betts or Corey Seager. Barnes plays defense. That´s his role. I´d rather Kershaw hit than Austin Barnes.

      • SoCalBum says:

        Spot on! And, Barnes does not need to hit .300 to be a key contributor to the team as he is one of the best defensive catchers in the game today (sans throwing). I like the idea explored by some that Dodgers use Barnes and Ruiz as catchers with Will Smith moving to third base and a backup catcher if/when needed.

        • John says:

          Are you for real? Will Smith will never play 3rd base! If your gonna comment on here then make some common sense for crying out loud!

          • SoCalBum says:

            So, only you are entitled to an opinion on a blog that discusses potential trades, free agent signings, evaluation of prospects, etc? Yes, I think Smith could move to third base eventually, or second, or the OF. He is considered an excellent athlete with plus speed, above average arm strength, and reflexes quick enough to catch 101 mph fastballs from 60′ away. He was a high school shortstop (and pitcher) who has played 58 games at third base in the minors. Perhaps you haven’t noticed that the Dodgers have a long history of moving players around. IF the Dodgers believe that Keibert Ruiz is ready to share time with Barnes at catcher, then moving Smith to another position like third base is a way to keep his bat in the lineup — and give him more plate appearances during the season, and likely prolong his career. If you cannot comprehend that reasoning then you may want to stop replying to my comments.

  9. Branchy Beaver says:

    Barnes showed flashes of brilliance with the bat in 2020. He had a good post-season as well. He hit over .300 – 3 RBI – 1 dong and .an 800+ OPS. He hit over .300 in the minors as well. I’d say he trending upward.

  10. Branchy Beaver says:

    I’m not saying he will hit .300 anytime soon. I do think if he stays within the strike zone (refrains from the high fastball outta the zone) and learns to not cock his swing vs swinging from the top as Mookie does, Barnes will have better timing and catch up to the high fastball within the zone ss well as recognize off the plate spin better.
    He’s a solid backup as it is. That has potential to improve as we seen in the post-seaon.

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