November 28th, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 The Dodgers are loaded with critical roster decisions for the 2023 MLB season: shortstop, starting pitching, bullpen, centerfield, and left field. Nonetheless, there is another important decision that literally should be a no-brainer – re-sign just-turned (this past Wednesday) 38-year-old Justin Turner as a part-time third baseman/designated hitter.
The team decided to pay JT $2 million rather than exercise their $16 million option for the 2023 season. While a net savings of $14 million may be sensible for small, or midsize market teams, allowing Turner to become a free agent and market himself to the other MLB teams is a gamble that could leave the team without his offense and clubhouse leadership.
Justin started the 2022 season slowly, batting below the mythical Mendoza line (.200 batting average) in March and April, followed by a mediocre May and June (.240 batting average). But, in the second half of the regular season, JT slashed .319/.386/.503 with an .889 OPS – All-Star worthy numbers. Unfortunately, Turner’s offense all but disappeared in the playoff loss to the San Diego Padres, batting .154 with no runs or RBI.
Apparently, there is mutual interest in JT returning for 2023, as the team attempts to finesse their way around the luxury tax penalties, figuring out how to fill all of the roster holes, while reigning in spending. Turner has signaled that he is patient:
“I’m in good standing with the Dodgers. Again, it’s a business. They have some decisions to make on what they want to do.” – Justin Turner.
However, the longer a contract decision is delayed, the gamble odds can shift in the wrong direction. Those teams in need of a third baseman do not care about the Dodgers payroll issues, and may test JT’s patience by making him an offer that he cannot refuse.
Losing Turner may not be a defining moment in the team’s pursuit of the 2023 World Championship, but it would be a blow to the team’s offense and camaraderie.
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@Dodgers Great article, Jesse. I totally agree.
Excellent piece, Jesse.
It’s hard to ignore that 38-years-old thing, but as you noted, finding a replacement for Turner’s clubhouse leadership and community involvement is going to be extremely difficult for Andrew Friedman. It will be interesting to see who he signs (or promotes) to replace Turner (both of them, actually). It could be a season-changing decision … or a failure of biblical proportions.
I hope they re-sign JT — perhaps 2 years in the $24M to $26M range and he becomes the backup at third and second plus DH. Good topic for another piece — potential replacements for JT.
Jesse, seems like you are a smart guy. But signing JT for strictly a clubhouse personality doesn’t make any sense for, 12-13 mill a year as you projected. His offense is a shell of what it was and I don’t see it getting better turning 39 years old this year so let’s not bank on that. I bleed blue brother but unless he takes a large paycut I say we pull from the farm or pick up a younger 3rd baseman to fill the void. Just my opinion bud.
Backup at 2nd base? lol
Jesse,
i also think youre a smart guy;
JT got off to a rough start (he always does) but he hit 98/311, an avg of .315 from may 28 to the end of the season, . if thats a shell, i’ll take it. theyre paying mookie betts, who hit .258 in the same span, more than THIRTY MILLION a year so half of that seems like a heck of a deal.
from june 28
JT hit .348
Freddie hit .343
TT hit .281
MB hit .266
as for second base??? well gosh, didnt he spend half of the season there in the shift? i guess he did.
and dont forget he can pitch! lol
personally i’d want to see another structured deal like the one he had. 14 for this year (reinstates the 16) with another option and guarantee of 1 or 2. that drops his AAV in half freeing up tax money.
What community involvement?
take a look at the JT Foundation and his work with the Dream Center.
During the pandemic, he and Kourtney personally fed the hungry by buying food from struggling small businesses and giving it away. at one point he purchased 1000 tacos a day from Toro Grillhouse and personally handed them out.
just a couple of examples of why this man is as good as it gets.
Tough decision. But, it is time to move on and play the kids. What good is a highly rated farm system if you are not going to use it.
I wish the team had a ready now third baseman who was as good as JT, but they don’t. Miguel Vargas has been touted as a third baseman, but his minor league fielding at the hot corner is .916 (.919 last year at OKC) — his best defensive spot is first base, but Freddie plays almost every inning of every game at first. Kody Hoese was touted as third baseman of future, but so far has spent more time on the injured list than the active roster.
Good point Jesse. Drury would be a more economical alternative.
Good point. But Drury scares the heck out of me. In 2021 (88 plate appearances) with the Mets he above average run producer (Fangraphs wRC+) for the Mets, and last year for the Reds was his career hitting year — then took a big nose dive for the Padres. The rest of his career he is a well below average run producer. And, his defense is below average across the board (including third base). Last year he did hit LH pitching pretty well, but he is not even close to being as good as JT. I’d pass on Drury — for me, I would rather see the Dodgers sign Brian Anderson (ex-Marlins) as utility player for third and corner OF positions.
Toss out Drury and his splits at Great American Ballpark. It’s almost as bas as a Rockies player splits. Vargas has nothing to prove in AAA, bring him up and split 3b with Turnerfor a season, ifvhe take a modest 5-7 mm 1 year deal. Get a front line starter and Closer. Go after a Mitch Haniger type outfielder to play with Outmann and CT3, Thompson in thr OF SPOTS. Muncy can play 2nd, 3rd, 1st and DH. Lux at SS. Haose also with nothing to prove in the minors, platoons at 2b.
If we get Verlandet.a Closer and Haniger, bring up the next waive. We have 4 AAA pitchers ready for the Majors now. Just too inexperienced to bring all up for a win now team.
With those moves we can reset the tax level. And make thr long play you are all missing on. If we ate resetting the tax this year it’s for 1 player only, Ohtani. This get the kids in the game, gives Kershaw and JT a last shot, and go loaded for bear in 24 with Ohtani picking up number1 starter. Full Time DH. Vargas at 3rd Lux st SS Hoese/Muncy at 2b, Freeman at 1b, Mookie in RF, Outman in CF. Platoon in left. Smith at C. Rotation is Ohtan Verlander, Urias, Buehler, Gonsolin, May and any of the Kids. Bullpen for both years is mix and match ad usual.
We get upgrades at SP. RP, CF, transition at 3B and 2b, LF. Keeps us a flexible as always, turns team to more right-handed for a season, until we land the big Fish Ohtani. Just some late night musings. Waiting for the Hot Stove to heat up.
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Muncy is next years 3rd baseman.
Before this last contract the Dodgers did the same thing with JT.
So hopefully he returns.
As I recall, JT accepted the contract even though he might have held out for more from other teams — he chose team and clubhouse over money — then he convinced Jansen to re-sign with Dodgers. As long as Dodgers are fair with JT I think he will return and eventually become a coach, or even manager.
JT is one of my favorite Dodgers and I can’t see him wearing another uniform. I hope they could work out some way he can end his career as a Dodger.
Spot on!
Outlook 2023
JT comes back.
Muncy much better year.
Outman and Trayce much better than Belli get.
CT3 bounces back has solid yr.
Needs SS and 1 SP and JT.. Can spend
45 million and reset the luxury tax.
We can do this.
Spot on!
He’s an all time Dodger great. He needs to be in that roster for 2023. Better yet he should retire a Dodger. Please work a deal with him. He’s my favorite Dodger
Turner’s old. He was good, now he’s not. DH maybe. Definitely not worth 16 million.
He’s 38 — 2022 Fangraphs wRC+ is 123 (23% above MLB average) which placed him ninth amongst his MLB (both AL and NL)third base cohorts. Offensively, he is still good – very good. But he is no longer a good defensive third baseman. I think most agree that Turner is no longer worth $16M for one season — TBD what he agrees to play for in 2023.
Tear it down. Let Kershaw, Trea, JT and others walk. Play the kids
The Dodgers will get a SP and a SS.
SS probably more important than adding an outfielder. Losing Trea would be a huge hit to the offense. Need to replace that offense. Can’t do it in house, we don’t have the replacement.
Lux as the centerpiece of a trade with the Brewers for Woodruff or Burned, Adames and even taking on Wong for 1 yr would reset the luxury tax and set us up to be successful for yrs to come.
Trea gonna get PAID … by somebody!!!
Ron????
Would you rather have Judge at 320 for 8 and trade for Adames. Or Trea at 9yrs 290.