October 25th, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 As the Dodgers enter into their 2023 roster renovation the first order of business is the deconstruction of the current roster. Ten veteran players are headed toward free agency, four have 2023 options to exercise, or not, others who may be designated for assignment (DFA), and players who may not be offered 2023 contracts (non-tenders).
Free Agents (current age)
Starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (34) remains one of the best pitchers in MLB. If he wants to return, the Dodgers will get the deal done. Projection – Kershaw will return in 2023 for his 16th Dodgers season.
Reliever David Price (37) performed well (2.45 ERA) in his limited innings (40) during the 2022 season. He opted out of the 2020 season and was only moderately successful in 2021. He was left off the 2021 and 2022 NLCS series rosters. Projection – reportedly considering retirement, Price will not return for 2023.
Reliever Craig Kimbrel (34) was a huge bust as the team’s closer and was left off the 2022 NLCS roster. Projection – Kimbrel will not return for 2023.
Pitcher Andrew Heaney (31) was an $8 million gamble by the Dodgers for 2022. While he pitched well, when available, his long history of injury cannot be ignored. Projection – Heaney will not return for 2023
Starting pitcher Tyler Anderson (32) will be in high demand by pitching needy teams after his All-Star season (15-5; 2.57 ERA). The Dodgers have been beset with injuries to their pitching staff, so re-signing Anderson should be high on their to-do list, but they could be outbid in contract dollars and length. Projection – Anderson will return in 2023 with a multi-year contract.
Reliever Chris Martin (36) was dominant in his late-inning role with the Dodgers, facing the heart of opposing teams’ batting order. But with Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and Brusdar Graterol returning, it will be hard to find a spot for Martin. Projection – Martin will not return for 2023.
Reliever Tommy Kahnle (33) displayed an assortment of nasty pitches during his brief (13 regular season games) 2022 time with the team, but his injury history cannot be ignored. Kahnle will not return for 2023.
Shortstop Trea Turner (29) has been the best run producing ML shortstop (Fangraphs) over the last two regular seasons (2021-22). There is no doubt that the Dodgers will make a qualifying offer ($19.65 million) to their All-Star shortstop, but that will not deter shortstop-needy teams from aggressively pursuing him. Dodgers fans are well aware of the team’s philosophy not to pay beyond their own player valuations. Other teams could exceed the Dodgers offer to Turner, as the Rangers did one year ago when they lured free agent Corey Seager to Texas. Projection – Dodgers retain Turner with a lucrative, long-term contract.
Outfielder Joey Gallo (29) came to the Dodgers with great hope that the team’s hitting coaches could unlock his enormous offensive potential. Alas, it wasn’t to be. The team has young, inexpensive, left-handed power hitters Edwin Rios, James Outman, and Michael Busch pushing to replace Gallo. Projection – Gallo will not return for 2023.
Outfielder Kevin Pillar (33) has too many young, talented outfielders in front of him on the Dodgers depth chart. Projection – Pillar does not return for 2023.
If you’re not counting, that is seven of the ten Dodgers free agents leaving the team, with starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson returning along with shortstop Trea Turner.
Including the prorated 2022 salaries of Gallo, Martin, and Pillar, the Dodgers payroll will be reduced by approximately $44M: Price ($16M), Kimbrel ($16M), Heaney ($8M), and Kahlne ($2.4M).
Options
Pitcher Jimmy Nelson ($1.1M) – The Dodgers signed Nelson to a 2022 contract ($700K) with the 2023 option knowing that his August 2021 Tommy John surgery would prevent him from pitching competitively until 2023. Projection – exercising the option has been the Dodgers plan as long as Nelson’s rehab has gone according to plan.
Pitcher Danny Duffy ($7M) had to be shut down from his rehab assignment late in the 2022 season due to elbow discomfort. Projection – the option will not be exercised.
Infielder (part time pitcher) Hanser Alberto ($2M) brought great clubhouse intangibles to the team, but his offense was disappointing. This is a tough call for a well-regarded, but light-hitting utility player. Projection – the Dodgers will exercise their option.
Justin Turner ($16M) started 2022 slowly, but his offense was terrific in the second half of the season, slashing .319/.386/.504/.889. With runners in scoring position, he slashed .339/.439/.579/1.007. Projection – exercising the option seems assured.
DFA/Non-tenders
Reliever Phil Bickford is on the bubble for keeping his place on the 2023 roster. In 2021 he was a shockingly good reliever, but he had a roller coaster performance in 2022 and finished the season on the injured list. Unfortunately, the Dodgers used Bickford’s last minor league option in 2022, so the young pitcher must remain on the active roster or be exposed to the waiver process. The team may DFA Bickford with fingers crossed that another team does not claim him, and he can be assigned outright to the minors.
Cody Bellinger poses a perplexing problem for the Dodgers, a five-tool talent who has significantly underperformed offensively over the last two seasons (2021-22) and benched in the 2022 NLCS after striking out four times in seven at bats. Projected to be paid $18.1M in 2023, Cody’s time with the Dodgers may be coming to an unceremonious conclusion, with the team non-tendering a contract for 2023.
Before making a decision on a Bellinger contract, the Dodgers will know the level of interest from left-hand hitting outfielders Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and centerfield could be handled by some platoon combination of Trayce Thompson, Chris Taylor, and left-hand hitting outfield prospect Outman.
Next, we will consider those Dodgers who could be used as trade capital to renovate the 2023 roster.
* * * * * *
Posted in 
@Dodgers Excellent as usual. I do see Heaney coming back though. But they have to get better than Taylor/Thompson as regulars in the OF. Maybe Outman earns a spot and see if TB would move Kiermaier ??
I only see Heaney returning if he is willing to take a significant cut in pay and moves to the bullpen. I agree with you about the OF. I think the Dodgers will sign a free agent OF’er and give Outman a good look in spring training in CF.
And Bauer may be the 800 pound gorilla in the room. If his suspension is reduced to one year, he will be available in 2023. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that the suspension is reduced.
What will the Dodgers do?
I almost included the Bauer issue in this piece but decided it was already too lengthy. You are spot on — IMO. I believe his suspension will be reduced to one year (at most). He has the option of leaving the Dodgers after 2022 and collecting $15M buyout, or playing for ~$32M. What we fans don’t know about the Bauer saga are volumes. The last I read, Bauer is suing the woman who made the claims, and The Athletic (and its writer at the time Molly Knight) for defamation. I can see a scenario where Bauer shows up to Dodgers spring training forcing them into a difficult decision — and the Dodgers sue Bauer for breach of contract and all of the salary and bonus money received (other than the prorate share for games actually played).
some great assessments my friend.
i’d bet you a bag o donuts that trea ends up east of the mississippi.
i dont see LA locking up another position for 10 plus years, especially not with the talent in the system.
you have to realize that even had the dodgers matched the rangers bid, CA gets 13.3% (soon to be 16.55%+) income tax while TX takes ZERO. that’s almost 54 million dollars seags isn’t losing. it’s part of the reason greinke went to AZ for almost the same LA offer. I believe that trea will take that into consideration as well when he listens to cold, damp SF and considers moving back to his east coast.
Agree with you, jalax. I believe that Trea has already played his last game in a Dodgers uniform.
No bet — I value my donuts too much to make that wager. I have better odds playing Powerball than predicting what Friedman and Dodgers will do. A good case can be made for Turner leaving and my prediction is more from the gut. I don’t see the Dodgers pursuing Correa, or Bogaerts in free agency. And Dansby Swanson will likely give the Braves a discount to play in Georgia — unless Freeman convinces him to play in LA. Think Turner likes playing with Betts, Freeman, Smith, Kershaw, et al — and Friedman has shown in the past that he can be very creative with contracts, even with a higher annual salary over shorter period.
A couple of points of interest.
Belly has Boras as an agent. No way he will be signing with the Dodgers after 23. Qualifying offer and then trade him? Or release him.
Unload Bauer to the Yankees LoL.
Vargas figures big in Dodgers plans.
He can hit.
What about bringing Joc P back to platoon in LF with Thompson and CT3.
Belly 18 mil plus Trea Turner
20 mil probably gets you judge.
But the biggest splash would be Ohtani for a bunch of prospects..
Fun discussion
Interesting trade proposals. I don’t think the Yankees will be outbid for Judge. My personal favorite, Dodgers find a way to acquire Mike Trout.
My personal fave would be Trout, as well, but I think that’s one of those ‘snowball’s chance’ things … although you never know with Andrew Friedman.
Oh yes, just wishful thinking for Trout. No way would Angels trade him to the Dodgers.
Phillies changed managers and are now in the WS.
Yep! Kapler was a disaster in Philadelphia.
…and SF.
I see what you did there…
One more tidbit.
Swanson’s agent is Freeman’s agent.
Does Freeman have an agent? Last I read, he was without an agent and advised all agents not to contact him.
The one Freddie had when he signed with the dodgers is Swanson’s agent
👍
If Trea Turner goes elsewhere, Swanson would fill the shortstop position very well. Not as good offensively, but his defense is outstanding.
Belly
Forensic dive into how many hits he lost to the shift? What would his average be adjusted for the shift?
How many more RBI?
But he won’t be a Dodger in 2024 because he will want multi yr deal and he is a Boras client.
If the Dodgers believe that Bellinger will show marked improvement with the new shift rules, then they might talk with him about an extension now. My opinion – Bellinger’s stubborn resistance to changing mechanics and approach has written his ticket out of town.
my thinking is we need to pay Kershaw and Anderson and let Belly go.
2-Trea turner next up.
3-sign a free agent CF preferably left handed. using T Thompson as backup in CF
and LF and RF. Or is it time to go with Outman Thompson platoon and trade at the deadline for whatever needs we might have.
4-Regarding Trea Turner
Maury Wills as he aged still fielded well and hit well even as his base stealing declined. He was still the same player without the SB. Trea should hit and run fine. So a 8 yr deal wouldnt be horrible.