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“Unless Friedman overwhelms Turner with an extension offer, it is likely that Turner will determine his value on the open free-agent market. Then the question becomes whether the team will trade Turner rather than keep him for 2022.”

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That is how we ended the ‘Trea Turner Contract Extension‘ article seven days ago.

The best outcome for the Dodgers is to sign Turner to an extension that will keep him as the team’s regular shortstop for the next five to eight years. Case closed. Move on to other roster issues.

However, what will the team do if Turner’s contract expectations are well beyond the amount determined by the Dodgers’ player-value algorithm? Or, Turner simply does not want to play long-term on the West Coast?

Will the Dodgers play Turner in 2022, lose him in free agency, or trade him?

Under the terms of the now-expired collective bargaining agreement (CBA), the team could play Turner, extend to him a qualifying offer (~$18 million) that would assure a compensatory draft pick should he sign with another team. However, there is a good chance that qualifying offers and corresponding compensatory picks will not remain in the next CBA.

Nevertheless, playing Trea Turner at shortstop in 2022 puts the best team on the field for the Dodgers as they pursue another World Championship. That would also give the team nine months to further value their star shortstop’s contributions and perhaps work out a contract extension before free agency. It’s a risk worth taking for one of the best players in the game today.

In spite of Turner’s value to the Dodgers as their regular shortstop, trading him remains a viable option if the team concludes that he will leave after the upcoming season. As a premier MLB player, he would undoubtedly net a very good return to the Dodgers. And the team could replace Turner internally with the combination of Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux alternating at shortstop. Or, they could sign another, less costly free-agent shortstop like Trevor Story.

Who might the Dodgers target for a Trea Turner trade?

Top of the list may be the Miami Marlins, who are searching for more offense in support of their quality pitching staff. If Trea Turner’s desire is to play close to his Florida residence, the Marlins would be a great fit, and they match up well with the Dodgers’ need for starting pitching. Sending Turner to Miami for a starting pitcher like 25-year-old right-hander Pablo Lopez and a couple of prospects would immediately improve the team’s starting rotation.

The Philadelphia Phillies could be the next best trade partner for the Dodgers with the intent to use Turner at shortstop or centerfield. Although the Phillies are not as close to Turner’s Florida residence as Miami, they are still on the East Coast. The Dodgers would have to settle for a package of ready-now prospects in return for Turner, perhaps a package centered on 23-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Hans Crouse and 24-year-old middle infielder Bryson Stott.

Another East Coast team, the New York Yankees, continue to search for a regular, coming up short in their pursuit of Corey Seager. Veteran shortstop Carlos Correa may have talked himself off the Yankees search list when he recently belittled beloved Hall of Fame Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter. Unfortunately, the Dodgers and Yankees do not match up well as trade partners, as the Dodgers would likely receive position players/prospects, perhaps with disappointing second baseman Gleyber Torres as the centerpiece.

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly in the market for an upgrade at shortstop, with Paul DeJong‘s Gold Glove defense offset by his swing-and-miss tendencies at the plate. The Dodgers might be willing to take the 28-year-old DeJong and closer Alex Reyes in return for Turner if they believe DeJong’s hitting issues can be fixed and convert Reyes into a starter.

The ideal scenario for the Dodgers is a trade with Miami for Lopez and prospects. A trade could even be expanded, with the Dodgers including an outfielder like Matt Beaty and young catching prospect Carson Taylor, with infielder/outfielder Brian Anderson also coming to Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are not going to part with Trea Turner unless the return is substantial, and it is more likely that they will play him in 2022 and take their chances in re-signing him as a free agent.

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