January 9th, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 * * *
MLB.com – July 30, 2021:
“The Dodgers shocked the baseball world, completing a deal on Friday that will send right-hander Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner to Los Angeles in exchange for top pitching prospect Josiah Gray, top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz, right-hander Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey.”
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Future Hall of Fame starting pitcher Max Scherzer appeared to be the focal point of that trade, as the Dodgers starting rotation (after Walker Buehler and Julio Urias) consisted of an assortment of older veterans, relievers in bullpen games, and young, untested prospects. But Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman was not only concerned about 2021, he was looking toward future World Series when he negotiated to include 28-year-old Washington Nationals All-Star shortstop Trea Turner in the trade.
Friedman acquired Turner knowing that several months earlier, his own All-Star shortstop, 27-year-old Corey Seager, had rejected the Dodgers offer of an eight-year/$250 million contract extension. Although the team could still sign Seager (represented by monetary-driven agent Scott Boras) after the 2021 season, it was more likely that Charlotte, NC native and Dodgers first-round draft pick in 2012 out of Northwest Cabarrus High School in Concord, NC would leave via free agency. With no ready-now replacement in the organization, adding Turner was as much about the Dodgers’ future as 2021.
One year later, déjà vu. The Dodgers are once again faced with either signing their star shortstop to an extension or perhaps having him leave via free agency following the 2022 season. After trading their two top prospects (Gray and Ruiz) to the Nationals and losing Scherzer to the New York Mets in free agency on December 1, 2021, the ideal action for the Dodgers is to sign Trea Turner to an extension sooner rather than later.
Extending Turner may be much easier said than done. Perhaps the largest obstacle to him becoming a Dodger beyond 2022 is his stated desire to play for a MLB team closer to his Florida residence. Of course, enough money can change some players’ minds about geographical work location. Then the question becomes what compensation package will it take to keep Turner in Dodger Blue for the foreseeable future?
The New York Mets Francisco Lindor is currently the highest-paid shortstop in MLB with an average annual value of $34.1 million. Corey Seager recently became the next highest-paid player at the position with $32.5 million AAV, and free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa is projected to receive a contract in the same ballpark.
Trea Turner is projected to earn ~ $20 million in 2022. As a free agent after the upcoming season, he is undoubtedly expecting a huge contract, having the baseball statistics to support a long-term contract that could make him the highest-paid shortstop per season in MLB.
In 2021, Turner was the highest-rated shortstop in MLB according to Fangraphs WAR (wins above replacement) at 6.9. The Padres Fernando Tatis was next with 6.1, followed by fellow shortstops Correra – 5.8, Seager – 3.7, and Lindor – 2.7.
What about a longer comparison period? For the last three MLB seasons (2019 through 2021) Turner’s WAR was 13.2, second only to the Boston Red Sox Xander Bogaerts 13.9. How did Correa, Lindor, and Seager compare over the same period? They were all below 10 WAR.
How much money, over what period of years, will it take for Turner to sign an extension with the Dodgers? Since 2022 will be Turner’s age-29 season, a ten-year contract seems out of the question. But a shorter period with a higher AAV, making him the highest-paid player at the position, could persuade him to remain a Dodger. Perhaps a contract similar to the Trevor Bauer three-year deal with a very high AAV would convince Turner to wait on free agency until 2024.
Unless Friedman overwhelms Turner with an extension offer, it is likely that Turner will determine his value on the open free-agent market. Then the question becomes whether the team will trade Turner rather than keep him for 2022. That is a topic for another article.
What do you think Dodgers fans? What contract would you offer Trea Turner to stay in LA?
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Another excellent well-thought-out piece, Jesse, Thank you.
I’m not going to lie, I was devastated (and quite angry) when Seager did not re-sign with the Dodgers. I thought for sure that he was Blue to the core. But when Scott Boras is involved, team loyalty means nothing. It’s all about the money.
Although I most certainly do not wish any ill-health or injuries on the younger Seager brother, whereas I was once among Corey’s biggest fans and supporters, I now no longer care how he does.
Although it undoubtedly won’t be for 10 years, I would be thrilled if Friedman re-signs Turner to a three to five(-ish) year deal in the $35 million(-ish) AAV range.
I think you have nailed the AAV it will take to keep Trea a Dodger ($35 million). Then, he must decide if he wants a shorter contract period like three years, or the financial security of a six to eight-year deal.
6 X 35K should do it.
$35M, six years might get a deal done, but probably take opt-outs each year after 3.