Roberts Might Want to Rethink the Leadoff Role

Last season, Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson led the National League with nine leadoff home runs against right-handed pitchers. In doing so, he set a new Dodgers franchise record for leadoff home runs in a season, topping the previous record of eight set by … Joc Pederson.

This is rather impressive when you stop and think about it. It is also a pretty good indication of who Dodgers manager Dave Roberts should have as his leadoff hitter whenever there is a right-hander on the mound to start a game.

But instead of Pederson, Roberts has been using infielder Max Muncy as his primary leadoff hitter against righties this season, and not entirely without merit. As most Dodger fans know, Muncy finished the 2019 campaign with 35 home runs; third-most on the team behind … Joc Pederson (36).

In 2019, Muncy hit a total of two first-inning home runs, neither of which was in the leadoff spot. (Do you see a pattern here?).

On Monday night, Pederson, batting in the leadoff spot, hit his first home run of the COVID-19-shortened / 60-game 2020 season (on the very first pitch of the game) off of San Diego Padres right-hander Chris Paddack. It was Pederson’s 21st career leadoff home run, leaving him only seven behind former Dodger great Davey Lopes for the franchise record of 28 leadoff home runs.

Paddack’s first-pitch fastball couldn’t have been any more in Joc’s wheelhouse.
(Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)

One can certainly argue that Dodgers newcomer and future Hall of Famer Mookie Betts could – and perhaps even should – be the Dodgers everyday leadoff hitter regardless of which arm the opposing pitcher is using; after all, they are paying him $365 million for the next 12 seasons, right? But here’s the kicker; prior to joining the Dodgers on February 5, 2020, Betts hit a total of 20 leadoff home runs during his six seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Betts, of course, bats right-handed, which, of course, creates the ideal scenario for Dave Roberts – Betts leads off against lefties and Pederson leads off against righties.

Ah, but here’s a fly in the ointment for Doc; the Dodgers are paying right-handed-hitting A.J. Pollock $55 million through the 2022 season (with a club option for 2023) to be their primary left fielder, with Cody Bellinger in center and Betts in right, thus making Pederson the odd man out. Pederson, on the other hand, is still arbitration-eligible and making $7 million this season but becomes a free agent at the end of this season.

That being said, it is impossible to ignore the fact that through the Dodgers’ first 11 games, Pollock is 10-for-31 (.323) and is currently their second-best hitter behind only shortstop Corey Seager (.375). Pollock has also hit two home runs and three doubles. However, and this is a biggie, he already has 10 strikeouts, compared to Pederson’s nine and Muncy’s team-leading 13 (Betts has seven). Pollock struck out 74 times in his 308 at-bats in 2019 (24.03%).

Following the Dodgers painful 5-4 loss to the Friars on Monday night, Roberts was asked if, given all of the above, has he given any thought to replacing Muncy with Pederson as his primary leadoff batter against right-handed pitching?

“Yeah, there’s a thought, there’s a thought. We’ll see,” Roberts answered. “I’ll just continue to think through it. I still got a little bit of time until tomorrow if they’ll, both those guys, get in the line-up, so. It was good to see Joc get on that first pitch heater.”

By no means am I an expert on such matters, but all things considered here, it seems like a no-brainer as to who the Dodgers leadoff hitter should be against right-handed pitching.

Play Ball!

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3 Responses to “Roberts Might Want to Rethink the Leadoff Role”

  1. In the bottom of the 8th inning I was thinking, “I hope Bellinger doesn’t hit a lead off homer in the ninth and the Dodgers lose by one run. Unfortunately, I was right.

  2. Dan in Pasadena says:

    Why not Joc leading off vs. RH, Muncy in the 2 hole (yeah, he doesn’t quite have the bat control – and would clog the base paths a bit – but he DOES see the strike zone very accurately) Mookie @ #3, Belli #4 and DH Pollock?

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