October 29th, 2019 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 The 2019 Dodgers pitching staff will be remembered as one of the best units in the long history of the organization that is recognized for pitching excellence. The cadre of Dodgers hurlers led Major League Baseball in: ERA (earned run average) – 3.37; WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) – 1.10; OBP (opposing hitters on-base average) – .282; OPS (opposing hitters on-base average plus slugging) – .661; and total shutouts – 18. The overall stats were driven by the outstanding starting rotation with a MLB-leading 3.11 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
With five pitchers returning in 2020 who started a combined 107 games for the team in 2019 (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, and Julio Urias), and precocious rookies Tony Gonsolin (six starts), and Dustin May (four starts), the rotation has the potential of being one of the most talented in MLB, but with little depth. There are also some legitimate concerns to be considered:
- The potential loss of free-agent pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Rich Hill could leave a void that will not be easily replaced. The Dodgers won 20 of Ryu’s 29 starts last season as he pitched to a 2.32 ERA. Rich Hill only started 13 games in 2019, but the team won 10 of those starts as he recorded a 2.45 ERA. Collectively, Ryu and Hill pitched 242 innings with a 2.35 ERA; the team winning 30 of the games they started.
- The continued statistical decline of Clayton Kershaw who saw his ERA climb above 3.00 (3.03) for the first time since his rookie season in 2008, as did his fielding independent pitching (FIP) at 3.86.
- Bullpen concerns may result in Ross Stripling (15 starts in 2019), or Kenta Maeda (26 starts) becoming full-time relievers in 2020. And possibly Julio Urias (eight starts) stays in the bullpen, with occasional starts.
- Julio Urias has never pitched 88 innings in any season as a professional. Tony Gonsolin pitched 128 innings in 2018; only 81.1 last season. The 141.1 innings pitched by Dustin May last season (minors and majors collectively) was his most as a professional. And, veteran Ross Stripling has never pitched more than 122 innings in the majors (2018)
- In the last three years, the Dodgers have used 10 different pitchers to start games in each season (including bullpen games).
Right now, there are more questions than answers, but it appears that the Dodgers will be in the market for starting pitching before spring training 2020. Potential acquisitions include free agents Gerrit Cole (Astros), Zack Wheeler (Mets), possibly the Nationals Stephen Strasburg (should he opt for free agency), or even the Giants Madison Bumgarner. Then there are trade possibilities like veteran starting pitcher Corey Kluber, who the Dodgers reportedly discussed with the Indians last year, possibly the Mets Noah Syndergaard, or the Diamondbacks Robbie Ray.
There is no doubt that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will do what is necessary – and prudent – to assure that the Dodgers once again have an outstanding pitching staff in 2020.
It will be a very interesting 2019-20 Hot Stove League.
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The Dodgers probably will not resign Hyun-Jin Ryu but I sure hope they will give it a try. That’s a tough guy to let go.
Nice summary.
For sure sign Rich Hill to a one-year incentive laden contract. He would either be good or on the DL.
Kick the tires on the trade possibilities and free-agents you listed.
Add Dennis Santana and Josiah Gray to starting pitching possibilities.
One thing for sure, we have lots of starting pitching options right now. But we could use a proven innings eater and a second ace.
I think the Dodgers will trade Santana. It was not well publicized, but he walked off the mound, through the dugout, gathered his stuff out of the clubhouse, and left with only 2 outs recorded in an inning where he had given up 10 earned runs. He came back a little over a week later and pitched the remainder of the season. I have a feeling that he burned his Dodgers bridge. I think Josiah Gray has elevated his status to “untouchable” and will be competing for a starting spot in 2021. We may see him take some spot starts in 2020 like Dustin May this past season.
Totally agree, Josiah Gray may be what Pedro Martinez was.do not trade Gray.
I too believe RYU will not be a dodger and the dodgers will save 38-40 mil with no RYU and no Hill. Then it gets creative, RYU needs to be replaced for sure.
I think he is on the other side of 30 for sure and I worry about him backtracking and he has quite an injury history. BTW(please no Archer deal with the Pirates-a former Freidman guy).
Wheeler might be an upgrade over RYU . Kluber short term and maybe a gamble because he had an injury plagued season this yr.
We do have CK Buehler and could start the season with Gonsolin May Urias and Maeda with Chicken Strip in the wings when needed.
Baring any changes the Dodgers have to be 15-20 game favorite. So its really just the playoff rotation we are talking about.
I don’t look at chronological age as much as pitches made. For example, Gerrit Cole has made more than 19,000 pitches in MLB, while Ryu has made less than 12,000. (I do not have the data for Ryu in Korea, or Cole in minors). Considering that Cole will likely get as much as $10MM per season more than Ryu, and for more years, I would rather the Dodgers re-sign Ryu. Ryu following Walker Buehler in the rotation would give another team’s players fits, then have May or Gonsolin follow Ryu, then Kershaw. Wheeler would be my choice as a free agent replacement for Ryu, but a trade for Kluber (non-displaced broken right arm) that includes Pollock going to Cleveland would make a nice replacement.
If someone were to offer an empty McDonalds’ bag for Pollock, take that bag. For such a fine front office, that signing rivals the blunder that was Andruuw Jones.
Could not agree more about the poor signing. Hopefully the team gets something of value in return, albeit the return could be another bad contract.d None of his previous stats warranted a contract, let alone for the amount the Dodgers guaranteed.
The Dodgers had their CF and RH bat on the roster before the Pollock signing in Chris Taylor, as they had their 2b man before signing LoFo and Dozier in either CT3 or Kike’. I’m always in favor of an upgrade, but to me, at least, none of those guys were that.
Most of Ryu’s injury history is one injury, which the Dodgers knew about before signing him. I know of two other players, neither pitchers, who said it took two years after labrum surgery before it felt normal. For a pitcher that pretty much means a two year lay-off.
Regarding backtracking: He had a career year and there’s always the question if he can duplicate it. Don’t forget, he had a sub 2 ERA in ’18. IMHO, if there is an explanation for any player’s sudden improvement, such as Ryu having a healthy shoulder for the first time, I wouldn’t worry about it.
My understanding is that both sides want to make it happen so there’s no reason it won’t happen.
Regarding the inevitable comment on that last sentence: Scott Boras works for him, but Hyun-Jin is the boss.
Dodgers would have to include more than Pollock to obtain Kluber who I think we should go after as a no brainier.
Agreed. I will give you my thoughts on that trade later this week (after first looking at the bullpen)
We have seen how pitching more or less wins championships and as of now, Dodgers do not have the pitching it takes to be of championship caliber.. So both starting and relief have to be addressed. It’s unrealistic to expect guys like May, Gonsolin Urias, to provide all those answers on their own.
Lots of options regarding starting pitching. We’d all like to see a free-agent signing. Any thoughts on the cost of free-agent starters? An author at DodgersWay projects the three best free-agent starters after Cole getting the following contracts:
Ryu 3yrs, $54M
Wheeler, 4 yrs, $64M
Bumgarner, 3yrs, $48M
I think he is vastly understating the cost for these three guys, but if he is right, I say sign all three. Thoughts?
I agree with you 100%, all three will get more total dollars with higher AAV. My preference is to re-sign Ryu, Wheeler is my close second choice.