OK, this may be classified as a ‘senior moment,’ but it seems not that long ago when the only baseball stats I read were those on the backs of Topps baseball cards and those published each week by the baseball bible The Sporting News. Today, one can quickly access Baseball_Reference, MLB Stats, Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, etc., etc. and find pages upon pages of stats, charts, graphs and analyses for every Major League Baseball player. The depth of data can quite literally be mind-boggling.

I point this out because, over the last couple of days, I have spent a few hours perusing the stats of two-time Dodgers All-Star, 2017 National League Rookie of the Year and 2018 NLCS MVP Cody Bellinger, looking for clues – any clue – as to why he has, statistically, gone from the best offensive baseball player on the planet from the end of March through May, to a hitter in August who is more like Joc Pederson than Mike Trout.

Reading an article filled with statistics is my personal answer to overcoming insomnia; no, really. Try it some time, it works like a charm. But to get more than a sense of Bellinger’s issues at the plate, one must turn to the stats, starting with his slash-line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage/and the combination of on-base and slugging percentages) by month for the 2019 season:

• March – April: .431 / .508 / .890 / 1.397
• May: .319 / .413 / .585 / .998
• June: .272 / .391 / .576 / .967
• July: .265 / .386 / .566 / .952
• August: .227 / .306 / .568 / .874

OK, the slash line for March / April was other-worldly. His batting average for balls in play (BABIP) was an unsustainable .398, and 40% of his fly balls were home runs. Bellinger returned to Earth in May, posting numbers that, over a career, would be first-ballot Hall of Fame-worthy, and June was almost as good. But there were several trends that have headed in the wrong direction since the start of the season:

• BABIP – May: .333 / June: .277 / July: .259 / August: .200
• Walks/strikeout ratio from 1.27 to current .50
• Percent of fly balls increased from ~ 39% before the All-Star break to ~ 51% after the break
• Launch angle has increased from ~ 15.5% to a high of ~ 21% in August.

But hands down, the most glaring (and frightening) statistic is that, as of this writing, Bellinger has now gone nine games without hitting a home run. And even though the Scottsdale, AZ native and Dodgers fourth-round draft pick in 2013 out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, AZ has had three 12-game home run droughts thus far this season (April 29 – May 12, May 29 – June 11, and July 17 – 31), he still looked very good at the plate and he didn’t strike out nearly as much as he has been during his current home run drought.

It appears that Bellinger has changed his swing path in order to increase the launch angle for more home runs but at the cost of a significantly higher strikeout rate and lower BABIP. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts theorized that Bellinger could be fatigued and/or is caught up in ‘MVP-itis.’ (And here you thought all of those “MVP” chants were helping him).

There is no one in a better position than Roberts to assess Bellinger’s hitting doldrums. But if the issue is fatigue – physical or mental – why continue to put Bellinger’s name on the lineup card every game? Could it be that Roberts is also caught-up in the MVP and/or home run title thing for his young first baseman/outfielder?

Regardless of the issue/motivation, Bellinger and the Dodgers must fix-it in order for the team to have a legit shot at the 2019 World Series, as Roberts recently explained:

“Getting back to being a good hitter, he can carry left, center, right by just being a good hitter, and the walks will come,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “We get back to that, it’s going to help us win more baseball games. If he does that, the MVP will take care of itself.

“The thing I see, with Cody coming into the season, his mindset was to be a really good hitter and be consistent in his mindset and approach,” added Roberts. “For me, when you try to slug, there’s pitches in at-bats that you miss, you foul off, you pop up, you swing and miss. Getting him back to the mindset of being a good hitter, and the fact that his swing has built-in loft, then he’ll, in turn, slug.

“You can’t expect a .400 average for six months, but I do think he can get back to become a good hitter. The slug, the on-base, will all come together,” Roberts concluded.

This is the time when a manager can make a difference in a team, by exerting his leadership to effect the necessary change(s) in a player’s behavior. Bellinger is only 24-years old. He needs the sage advice and direction of a leader. Whether it is more rest, a mechanical swing adjustment, and/or change in hitting approach, it is Dave Roberts’ responsibility to help the young man get back on track.

Fix-it!

Fast!

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