Red Sox-8, Analytics-4

It’s probably safe to say that there wasn’t a Dodger fan on the planet who didn’t yell out “What’s he doing?” when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts removed right-hander Pedro Baez from Game-1 of the 2018 World Series in the bottom of the seventh inning.

All the one-time Dodgers worst reliever, who miraculously resurrected his career over the last two months of the regular season (and thus far through the postseason) to become the Dodgers best reliever, did was strike out Red Sox pinch-hitter Mitch Moreland and shortstop Xander Bogaertson 10 pitches – with an inherited runner on second base.

You didn’t need 20/20 vision to see that Baez was absolutely dialed in on Tuesday night, yet somehow Dave Roberts missed (or ignored) it and went the analytics route instead. It failed miserably.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)

But instead of letting Baez, who was clearly at his very best and was consistently hitting 97-MPH with his fastball, face right-handed hitting Red Sox pinch-hitter Eduardo Nunez with left fielder Andrew Benintendi on second base and after Roberts opted to (wisely) have Baez intentionally walk slugger J.D. Martinez, Roberts pulled the analytics card out of his pocket and decided to have struggling left-hander Alex Wood face Nunez instead of the red-hot Baez.

It did not work.

Instead, Nunez crushed Wood’s second pitch – an 83.5-mph “knuckle-curve” on the inner corner of the plate – over the Green Monster in left field at Fenway Park for a devastating three-run home run turning a very winnable 5-4 game into a completely out of reach 8-4 ballgame and final score.

When you throw a slow curveball on the inside corner to a guy like Eduardo Nunez, who likes slow curveballs on the inside corner, bad things can – and did – happen. (Video capture courtesy of Fox Sports)

The burning – and very obvious – question of the aforementioned every Dodger fan on the planet is, of course, Why? Why would Roberts completely ignore the fact that Baez, his current best reliever not named Kenley Jansen, was absolutely dialed in and bringing it and go with Wood, who had been banished to the bullpen on September 10 due to his complete ineptitude?

“We talked about [leaving Baez in] with Petey throwing the ball well right there,” Roberts told reporters almost dismissively after the game. “But [Red Sox third baseman Rafael] Devers is really good against the right-hander, and to get a guy off the bench and Nunez, I really liked Alex in that spot, I did. Whether they were going to hit Devers with a lead or go to the bench and go with Nunez, I still liked Alex in that spot.”

So did the Red Sox.

Within seconds of Nunez’s back-breaking home run, social media (i.e., Twitter) exploded with tweets questioning Roberts’ clearly less-than-popular decision to remove an extremely efficient Pedro Baez for a yet again horrible Alex Wood.

But even before Roberts’ weak attempt to justify his failed decision, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers Game-1 starter who was charged with five of those eight Red Sox earned runs on seven hits while striking out five and walking three in his 4.0 innings pitched and was tagged with the loss, did not offer up any excuses for his less-than-stellar outing and owned up to it, unlike his manager.

“Slider wasn’t very good tonight,” Kershaw told reporters. “Didn’t have the depth, kind of flat in the zone, and they made me pay for it. All the way around, wasn’t a great night.”

But as they say, ‘It is what it is’ and the Dodgers now find themselves down one game to none in the best-of-seven World Series. That being said, the Dodger players themselves were quick to point out that there is still a lot of baseball yet to be played in the Fall Classic.

“It’s baseball. We know things can change real quick,” said popular Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp. “You know what happened in Milwaukee, we lost the first game and we bounced back.”

Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who went 3-for-5 on the night, wholeheartedly agrees.

“It’s a long series,” said Turner. “We lost Game 1 in Milwaukee, too, I believe. So we’ll shake this one off and come back tomorrow.”

Even Kershaw acknowledged that this thing is far from over, although his take on it is a bit different.

“We won Game-1 last year [against the Houston Astros] and lost the series,” Kershaw said. “Maybe we’ll try it out this way and see if we can win one.”

But perhaps the most logical comment came from Dodgers second baseman Brian Dozier who, although fully confident in his teammates, acknowledged that they had best not take Tuesday night’s loss lightly.

“If we can split, go home tied, we’re in pretty good shape,” Dozier said. “Can’t lose two games here, I don’t think.”

Word.

Play Ball!

 

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

10 Responses to “Red Sox-8, Analytics-4”

  1. Boxout7 says:

    Made no sense to pull Baez. Huge mistake!

    It’s also time to admit Clayton Kershaw’s days as an ACE are over. I read he thinks his velocity will return. If it doesn’t he’s a inconsistent number two or three. Wouldn’t mind if he opts in because of past performance, but it would be a BIG mistake to resign him to a long-term ace like contract.

    Fortunately, he have Buehler and Urias. Youth, as always, will be served.

  2. Bob says:

    I saw this coming (obviously not the exact scenario) when they deactivated Ferguson. They should have deactivated Wood.
    Kersh is not going to throw away $65mill over the next two years by opting out.

    • Boxout7 says:

      You’re right, Ferguson is a young rising STUD.

      I’m on the record, wanting to trade Wood last season when he was 11 and 1 or something like that. Just watching that delivery hurts. A young controllable starter with an 11 and 1 record could have brought a great return. Too late now.

      The Kershaw contract situation will be interesting. You had a good post a few threads ago. “If Kershaw is willing to bet on himself, opt-in and see where he is in two years at age 32”. We’ll see.

  3. The thing I hated most about taking Baez out was seeing Wood come in. Alex Wood has been pitching batting practice lately. The only thing, at the moment, he’d be good at is pitching in the Home Run Derby.
    Well it’s another postseason loss for the Dodgers, which there are many of but I keep thinking of the success they’ve been having lately and I feel like there are still some good games coming up.

  4. Izzylangfan says:

    Dave Roberts trusts his players. Wood is on the roster so Roberts will trust him. But he shouldn’t even be on the roster because there is no way Wood should be playing right now.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      I most certainly won’t argue with that.

      In my opinion, this entire thing spiraled out of control early Monday afternoon when the Dodgers (and I can’t imagine that it was just Roberts) decided to remove Caleb Ferguson from the 25-man World Series roster instead of Alex Wood. I had no problem with adding Alexander (although he had his rough moments early in the season as well), but the Wood over Ferg thing was just plain stupid. It took all of 6.2 innings into Game-1 to confirm this.

      This would be an excellent time for Wood to suffer one of those mystery injuries so that Caleb can be added to the roster before Wood causes any further damage … if it’s not already too late.

  5. James2 says:

    I said it earlier: Dave Roberts caused the Dodgers to lose last year’s World Series and, barring the players overcoming his ineptitude –can he not SEE that Alex Wood is useless???– they will lose this year’s Series as well. As much as Friedman/Zaidi like Roberts for his ability to be a puppet… *everyone* gets paid to win the World Series. Guggenheim didn’t pay $2B for the Dodgers to be the best damn second-place team ever.

    Oh, and maybe Kershaw either should not have closed out Milwaukee or have been saved for Game 3 –iow, been on full rest. We know he’s as competitive as Hell, but he’s also throwing hittable stuff, so he might as well save 180923822.

  6. James2 says:

    er, keyboard glitch. Meant to say save his arm.

Leave a Reply

Powered by WordPress