Happy New Kershaw Year … maybe

When the Dodgers signed left-hander Clayton Kershaw to his current 7-year / $215 million contract extension back on January 15, 2014, it was the largest salary in MLB history – pitcher or otherwise. In fact, as recently as October 31, 2017, the soon-to-be (on March 19) Dallas, Texas native was still among the highest paid players in major league baseball, with an average annual value (AAV) of $30 million.

He isn’t anymore.

By the time opening day 2018 rolls around it is quite possible that there will be several current free agent starting pitchers that could top Kershaw’s AAV, such as Jake Arrieta and perhaps even Yu Darvish (oh, the irony).

Realistically, it’s probably safe to say that aside from former Dodger and current Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke and his $34 million AAV and Boston Red Sox left-hander David Price and his $31 million AAV, Kershaw will more than likely still have the third highest AAV among all starting pitchers … through the 2018 season, that is.

Then again, he may return to the top of the AAV heap ahead of both Greinke and Price after the 2018 season.

In addition to tossing a no-hitter on June 8, 2014, Kershaw has one NL Cy Young award (2014), one NL MVP award (2014), one Gold Glove award (2011) and is a seven-time consecutive All-Star (2011 through 2017). But will he retire as a Dodger? (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)

As every Dodger fan knows, when Kershaw and his agent Casey Close (who also represents Greinke) inked that 7-year / $215 million contract extension with the Dodgers almost four years ago to the day, it included an opt-out clause after the 2018 season. And while it may seem unfathomable that the extremely popular Dodgers left-hander – who is often likened to Hall of Fame left-hander Sandy Koufax – would walk away from the $65 million remaining for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, this is exactly what Greinke did  to the Dodgers following the 2015 season to get to that MLB-leading $34 million AAV.

But make no mistake about it, Clayton Kershaw is not Zack Greinke … on or off the field.

It takes but one quick glance at Greinke’s 14-year MLB career to realize that team loyalty means very little to the eccentric 34-year-old Orlando, Florida native. After being drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the first round of the 2002 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Apopka High School in Apopka, Florida, Greinke spent seven seasons with the Royals – until he was nearing free agency in 2010 and was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. After two seasons with the Brewers, Greinke was traded to the Angels of Anaheim at the July 31 trade deadline in 2012 and became a free agent at the conclusion of the season. He then signed a 6-year / $147 million contract with the Dodgers on December 10, 2012. Like Kershaw’s 7-year / $215 million deal, Greinke’s contract with the Dodgers also included an opt-out clause following the 2015 season, which he exercised; this in spite of the fact that the Dodgers had made it into the post-season in each of his three seasons in a Dodger uniform.

In the simplest of terms, Zack Greinke is only in it for the money and perhaps the ego of having the highest AAV of any pitcher in the game. And while it is entirely possible that Kershaw may also opt out of the final two seasons of his existing (and enormous) contract and walk away from a guaranteed $65 million still on the table, something tells me that he will not; especially in light of back issues he experienced in 2016 (10 weeks on the disabled list for a herniated disc) and 2017 (five and a half weeks on the DL for a lower back strain).

These two excited Dodger fans were on-hand for Kershaw’s no-hitter on June 8, 2014 … as was their father in the Dodger Stadium press box. (Photo credit – Christina Cervenka)

Throughout his 10-year MLB career, Kershaw has made it abundantly clear that he absolutely loves the Dodgers, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2006 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Highland Park High School in University Park, Texas. Through those 10 MLB seasons, Kershaw has already earned over $129 million with a guaranteed $105.7 million through the 2020 season if he does not opt-out. As such, one has to ask oneself: ‘How much money is enough or even too much money? … or as one former major leaguer once said: “I’m making my children’s children’s children’s money.”

So, will 2018 be the final season that Clayton Kershaw dons a Dodgers uniform, or will he eventually retire as the second greatest left-hander in franchise history en route to the sacred Halls of Cooperstown?

Stay tuned…

 

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3 Responses to “Happy New Kershaw Year … maybe”

  1. Boxout7 says:

    Yeah, Kershaw isn’t Greinke. Greinke had no loyalty to the Dodgers, looks like Kershaw does. But I have to disagree with you, I believe if Dodgers and Kershaw don’t sign an extension prior to the end of the 2018 he will opt-out.

    Loyalty cuts both ways, 30 year old Kershaw (when his opt-out comes up) with a potential domination wrecking back problem deserves and needs more than two years of top salary after 2018, if he gets through 2018 relatively healthy.

    I also think the $215M under the original big contract should be plenty for anybody, especially if it meant playing for the Dodgers another two years, but that isn’t the reality of the situation. I don’t know what I would really do if I was blessed enough to be in that situation.

    In my opinion, the fairest solution for both the Dodgers and Kershaw would be to sign a 5 year extension at around $180M prior to the 2018 season, with a full no-trade clause. A contract like that would guarantee Kershaw five more years with the Dodgers, instead of three at top dollar. It’s less in years than what he could get if he went full Grienke as a free-agent, but gives him an additional guaranteed $75M even if it becomes apparent in 2018 the back is not going to cooperate.

  2. oldbrooklynfan says:

    I often wonder, who puts the opt-out clause in the contract. Is it the player or the agent? Or both?

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      Scott Boris and Casey Close are pretty much the only agents who have done this with their premiere clients. Draw your own conclusion.

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