January 22nd, 2016 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Prospect evaluators are a dime a dozen and you certainly don’t have to look very long or hard to find them. But while evaluating prospects is extremely subjective and relies heavily on opinion, there are three prospect evaluators out there who have established themselves as among the best in the business.
Without question one of the most highly respected prospect evaluators is Ben Badler of Baseball America. Ben has been at this gig for many of years and his annual pre-season and mid-season prospect reports are always highly anticipated by baseball writers, bloggers, fans and even many of the prospects themselves. Joining Badler at the top of the list are Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com – both of whom are usually spot-on with their prospect evaluations and rankings.
“Prospects are just that, they’re prospects.” – Former Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti
As everyone knows, when a team drafts a player out of high school or college it is, at best, a crap shoot. Whether it’s the first round or the 40th, you simply never know what you’re getting – although as a matter of record those drafted in the first several rounds tend to have a much better shot at making it to The Show.
Perhaps former Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti summed it up best: “Prospects are just that, they’re prospects.” But as the old adage goes, Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and when guys like Badler, Mayo and Callis all agree on the same top prospects, it behooves baseball executives, player development people and scouts to listen to what these guys are saying, and all three of them are saying that the Dodgers have two of the very best pitching prospects in the game today.
I am, of course, speaking of 19-year-old left-hander Julio Urias and 23-year-old right-hander Jose De Leon. Last month Badler ranked Urias and De Leon as the Dodgers’ number two and number five best prospects respectively; not just the team’s best pitching prospects but their best overall prospects. And then just this past week Mayo and Callis ranked Urias as the number one left-handed pitching prospect and De Leon the number five right-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball.
“Urias has an outstanding combination of stuff and pitchability well beyond his years,” writes Mayo. “He has three plus pitches with outstanding command.
Julio Urias appeared in two games for the Dodgers last spring. (Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
The evaluation of De Leon is equally impressive.
“De Leon’s stuff and command have gotten a lot better since he improved his conditioning and mechanics, giving him a riding 92-96 mph fastball, a plus changeup and an effective if inconsistent slider,” writes Callis.
Although Urias was ranked slightly higher than Jose De Leon by prospect evaluators, many believe that De Leon will make it to the major leagues first. (Photo credit – Rich Crimi)
So why, then, are Julio Urias and Jose De Leon not on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster and why have they not yet been invited to major league spring training camp, which begins in just four weeks? As he often does, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was a bit vague when asked this exact question during the MLB Winter Meetings last month.
“We want to do what’s right for those guys,” said Friedman. “Now we may get to spring training and it’s accelerated. It’s certainly not something we would plan on right now, with where those guys are. We feel like a number of them will impact us during the 2016 season. Don’t think it’s fair to them and their development to say we’re going to count on that in April of 2016. Now it may end up happening with injuries and things that happen, but it’s certainly not something that we’re planning for, as we sit here in December.”
In a time where top-of-the-rotation starters are reeling in astronomical multi-million dollar / long term contracts that will take them well into their ever-dangerous mid to late 30s, why wouldn’t Friedman and Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi – who have made it very clear that they are trying to “get younger” – seemingly ignoring the goose that has laid not one but two golden eggs at their very feet?
Oh sure, one can argue that Urias is only 19 years old, but anyone who has watched this kid pitch in person and has seen how he carries himself both on and off the field immediately realizes that he is – in Jonathan Mayo’s words – “well beyond his years.” And when you consider that De Leon right this second is already older than Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and some guy named Clayton Kershaw (among others) were when they made their MLB debuts, you have to ask yourself “What are Friedman and Zaidi waiting for?” While it is certainly commendable that the two top Dodgers execs want to bring these kids along slowly, are Urias and De Leon putting unnecessary mileage on their young arms, mileage that they themselves may need when they are in their mid to late 30s?
The point to all of this is that even if Urias and/or De Leon are not quite MLB-ready yet (although I believe they both are), why not at least give them a good close look in big league camp against big league hitters instead of having them wasting their talents against minor league hitters down on the backfields of Camelback Ranch?
Pull the trigger, Andrew.
Posted in 
I think both will be in LA at some point in the season. I too get impatient with that part but think injuries will open up spots.
Blake Snell is in a similar spot with the Rays. Drafted 52nd overall in 2011 he had one of the best seasons in all of minor league ball in 2015. He is a 23-year old lefty and the reason why a Tampa starter may still be available in trade. Karns has already been traded.
In that 2011 draft the Dodgers selected Chris Reed with the 16th pick. Sonny Gray was selected by Oakland with the 18th pick. That would have been in the Zaidi years. Gray broke into the majors as a 23-year old on July 10th in 2013. He pitched 64 innings over twelve appearances.
I certainly am hoping to see both Julio and Jose in Dodger Blue this year. I definitely think they will see action in the big league camp this spring.
Not certain if you were referring to these young men when making your plea against Joe Blanton “taking up a roster spot” in a long relief role with the team? I would certainly not put either of these two young pitchers in such a thankless role within the bullpen.
If one of them does happen to crack the starting rotation, which I feel De Leon is in the best position to do so right now (lack of righties), then that could free up another spot in the bullpen for a “seasoned” arm in the likes of Wood or Ryu (if he’s ready to go).
One thing is for certain; you can never have too much pitching. F&Z are in good shape, with an excess of “experienced” arms, if a trigger needs to be pulled sometime in the near future. I doubt they will cut off their nose… etc. They have the means to make a deal happen.
(See AlwaysCompete’s reply below).
Hey Ron,
I am re-directing LA Dodger Talk Readers to you. I am retiring! 😉 Take good care of them. Godspeed!
Congrats on retiring but sad to see LADT go. Best of luck to you Mark.
Mark,
Why not archive your old site? You have some excellent articles that are now, “POOF”… gone.
We will miss you!
Kevin
Mark, sorry to read you are hanging them up, as I have enjoyed your blog articles for years. Hopefully you can contribute over here now and then. Thank you for your excellent work over the years.
Morning guys – new here as been moved on by Mark from LADodgertalk.
Looking forward to being part of your community.
Welcome to the family WD.
It was mentioned above that you can never have too much pitching. But as odd as it sounds, I think you can have too much pitching. Currently the LAD rotation is Kershaw, Kazmir, Maeda, Ryu, and Anderson. The bullpen is probably Jansen, Hatcher, Baez, Avilan, Garcia, Howell and Blanton. The OKC rotation could be Urias, De Leon, Wood, Montas, and Lee. Then there are Bolsinger, Frias, Cotton, C Anderson, Beachy, Thomas, Stripling, Ravin, Liberatore, and OKC roster members, Matt West, Lisaverto Bonilla, Logan Bawcom, Brooks Brown, Alex Burgos, and Felipe Gonzalez. Not far behind are Chase De Jong, Jacob Rhame, Grant Holmes, Joshua Sborz, and Yadier Alveraz. Walker Buehler is out for the year, but should be ready in 2018, and Yaisel Sierra when he actually signs.
Obviously not everyone identified is going to make it as a regular rotation or bullpen member at the ML level. There is a lot of organizational depth included. De Leon is actually on the AA roster along with Rhame and 9 other pitchers. That could be too much pitching. There comes a point where the FO needs to determine when is the best trade a prospect before he becomes organizational depth. Has that time come and gone for Zach Lee, Ian Thomas, Bolsinger, and Frias? Is the Dodger organization better with Alex Wood back in AAA? Is there a way of packaging some of the surplus pitching and surplus OF to get a Jake McGee or Brad Boxberger? Cotton, Stripling, and Anderson can move to the OKC bullpen if that is what the Dodgers need. Do they need all three in the bullpen? Their trade value diminishes if moved from a potential starter to a bullpen piece. I would agree that you cannot have too much pitching as long as you use some of the surplus to improve other parts of the organization. Maybe some of the surplus can be used to obtain some infield help at all levels. But as it currently stands, I do think there is too much pitching to remain at ML, AAA, and AA levels.
On the question of prospects, you also play to the percentages. The detractors of of the FO love to point out that prospects are just that – prospects…and most stay prospects. The more you have, though, the more likely you get a solid MLB player.
I would like to think there are parts, however, that the Dodgers could package to improve around the margins. That’s what the FO has shown they are adapt at doing…or at least willing to do. The FO also likes to sell high. Zack Lee rebounded somewhat, but he is beginning to languish at AAA. Do the Dodgers hope he doesn’t regress again and actually gets a little better before they flip him. Bolsinger was actually pretty valuable for the team last year…especially the first half. I think the Rays would want someone a little more compelling then those for one of their bullpen pieces.
Hey Dodgerpatch!! The Rays do not want or need any of the pitching. They need to move one of their starters to make room for Blake Snell. Can Friedman work his multiple team trade? The O’s need OF and starting pitching but really do not have anything LA needs. Unless they want to trade Manny Machado for Zack Lee (a joke). Same with Halos and LHOF. LAD needs a Wade Davis level 8th inning setup, one less OF, and organization infield help. They have the assets to make something happen, but will they? If they do it will probably involve someone that fans will hate to lose.
Wood in OKC?
I don’t think so. He is not going to like that. Might as well send him to Tampa for McGee.
I am an Alex Wood fan. Have been since his rookie year. But apparently the FO is not, and I am in a very small minority. It would appear he is being retained to be the insurance for Ryu. But if Ryu is healthy, who does he replace in the rotation? I would have said he could be the long relief/swing pitcher, but the Dodgers then went out and spent $4M on Joe Blanton. If no spot in the LAD rotation, he has options, so instead of giving him away I figure they will hide him in OKC until one of LAD starters gets injured. But if TB would trade Jake McGee for Wood, I would support that. I do not know how many Rays fans would.
Makes sense. He and his agent will be pissed. How about a 6 man rotation to start the year? You know somebody out of that group will scroinge an articulation before the sun sets on May.
RC, about two weeks ago we discussed the 6-man staff here. Though I seriously doubt the A2Z have given it much consideration. Frankly, with so many starters with history of injury and short work loads, I think it’s the way to go with this club.
https://thinkbluela.com/index.php/2016/01/07/the-first-real-six-man-rotation-in-mlb-history-3/
The problem with the 6-man rotation, besides fewer starts for Kershaw, is that it leaves one less spot for a reliever or position player. But AC is right in that there is a logjam of pitching in the higher minors which has only been exacerbated by signing Blanton and Beachy. No doubt some of the weaker links will drop out but it would be a shame to lose a kid with real potential just to stockpile AAAA arms. Not like we haven’t seen it happen here before…