What’s a number four or number five starter worth?

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article entitled How badly does Ricky Nolasco really want to be a Dodger? In that article I suggested that the Dodgers most likely would not re-sign Nolasco, who is now a free agent, unless he would be willing to give the Dodgers a hometown discount, which I seriously doubted he would be willing to do – this in spite of all the hype and hoopla that Nolasco is local guy who grew up watching his favorite team at Dodger Stadium.

Although this was (and still is) my opinion, I based it on a couple of things: First – Nolasco would undoubtedly be highly sought after by teams needing a top-of-the-rotation (a number two or number three) starter, whereas he would (at best) be a number four or even a number five starter with the Dodgers; Second – Contrary to what some folks may think about Nolasco not being in it for the money, he absolutely is – and that’s okay because (nearly) every professional baseball player is. Face it, they have to set themselves up financially for the rest of their (and their family’s) lives.

I also mentioned in article that Nolasco “…could very well land a multi-year deal north of $50 million” with another team. Little did I know and never in my wildest dreams did I ever expect the soon-to-be 31-year-old Corona, CA native and current Rialto, CA resident would ask for a 5-year/$80 million deal. This is anything but a hometown discount and absolutely screams of it’s all about the money. So much for Ricky Nolasco really wanting to be a Dodger.

In his final three starts with the Dodgers in the regular season, Nolasco allowed 17 earned runs in 12 innings pitched (12.75 ERA). Kind of hard to justify $80 million for that. (Photo credit - Ron Cervenka)

In his final four starts with the Dodgers (including Game-4 of the NLCS), Nolasco allowed 20 earned runs in 16 innings (11.25 ERA) and gave up 27 hits. It’s kind of hard to justify paying $80 million for that – especially for a number 4 or 5 starter.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Although Nolasco has an impressive 89-75 career record with a decent 4.37 career ERA in his 8 years in the Big leagues, there is no way on earth he is worth $80 million to be a number four or number five starter for the Dodgers when they can better use that money towards the bidding price for Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka, who is a number one starter for the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japan Pacific League and considered to be the best free agent pitcher on the market.

It would be far wiser for the Dodgers to spend the money that Nolasco is seeking towards acquiring Masahiro Tanaka. (Photo courtesy of Kyodo News)

It would be far wiser for the Dodgers to spend the money that Nolasco is seeking towards acquiring right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.
(Photo courtesy of Kyodo News)

Granted, no matter how good Tanaka is, it is highly unlikely that he would bump Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu out of the number one, two and three spots respectively in the current Dodgers rotation – at least not initially, but the Dodgers stand a much better chance of getting more bang for their buck in the 25-year-old Tanaka than for a guy who is approaching the downward side of his MLB career.

Even though it isn’t our money, it’s hard to ignore the age-old saying “A fool and his money are soon parted” – and it’s hard to believe that the Guggenheim Baseball Management group got to be where they are today by being foolish with their money.

 

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4 Responses to “What’s a number four or number five starter worth?”

  1. OldBrooklynFan says:

    A 4 or 5 starter, what are they worth? I find that to be a good question. But from what I’ve noticed the better your 4 or 5 starters are the better chance a team has of having a close to 100 win season.
    I usually dread the days when the Dodgers’ 4 or 5 starter is schedule to pitch, I’m always fearful, they’ll lose.
    The big hope is to find two really good starters to fill the 4 and 5 holes but this rarely happens.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      “The big hope is to find two really good starters to fill the 4 and 5 holes but this rarely happens.”

      Actually I think that there is a better chance of filling the number 4 and 5 spots with potential top-of-the-rotation guys (number 1 or number 2 guys) is better this coming season than at any time in the past 20 years (or more).

      In addition to Tanaka, the Dodgers are reportedly in on David Price and perhaps even Max Scherzer (although the Detroit media is denying this). Can you imagine a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Tanaka, Price or Scherzer? That’s FOUR Cy Young Award winners! (after Max get’s his, that is).

      The mere thought of having two number ones in your 4 and 5 spots is staggering.

  2. Cy Young says:

    I think as the season progresses, Tanaka will eventually end up being our #2 starter.

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