October 19 of the 2022 MLB season. Who’d a thunk that Dodgers fans and baseball pundits would be discussing the team’s Hot Stove season even before the first pitch of the National League Championship Series had been made? But that is what is left for us, the result of the vagaries of the current MLB postseason tournament – October Madness.

There is nothing to be gained from lamenting ‘Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda’ whining and “There’s no crying in baseball!” Unfortunately, Dodgers fans have grown accustomed to decades of ‘Wait till next year’ when their beloved team fails in pursuit of the elusive World Championship.

The Dodgers are faced with the daunting task of restructuring a roster that won 111 games in the 2022 regular season. Ten players are headed toward free agency, another four with options to be exercised – or not – and decisions looming for others who may be designated for assignment (DFA), or not offered contracts (non-tenders) for the 2023 season. We will consider those decisions in the coming days and weeks.

The Dodgers coaching staff for 2023 may, on the surface, be the easiest decision for Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman. The core of this group of coaches has been in place for 217 regular season wins in the last two years, winning an incredible 67% of games played; bringing them back is seemingly a no-brainer decision.

But…

• Pitching coach Mark Prior may be on the short-list for those teams searching for a new manager, or bench coach with pitching acumen. Keeping Prior may be difficult for the Dodgers unless they move him into a position with greater responsibility and salary.
• While the Dodgers outfield defense was well above average in 2022, pitching, third base, and shortstop were below ML defensive norms, and catching was middling. The 2023 rule changes for infield shifts may place an even greater priority on infield defense which in turn may influence the Dodgers decision on the coach responsible for that area.
• Dodgers offense was outstanding in 2022, so re-signing the current hitting coaches seems a priority. Those teams that struggled with their offense in 2022 may covet one of Robert Van Scoyoc, Brant Brown, or assistant Aaron Bates for their hitters.

Then there is the on-field leader of the Dodgers, manager Dave Roberts, who is under contract through the 2025 season. Reports that Roberts will return for an eighth season in 2023 makes sense, as his managerial winning percentage of .632 puts him on the early path toward the Hall of Fame. Roberts appears to be the ideal manager in today’s MLB statistical and algorithm environment, applying analytics to decisions over a 162-game schedule is a tried and tested approach by the Dodgers to winning and advancement into the postseason playoffs.

“I personally don’t think the criticism that Dave has received has been fair,” Friedman said during his end-of-season press conference at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday afternoon. “After a loss, there are narratives formed of what happened, and I get that. Both positive and negative. … I think there are decisions that are 50-50, or 55-45, and if those worked, Dave would’ve gotten praised for them.”

“I think it’s human nature to want to point the finger at someone, and I feel like this was an organizational failure in the postseason.” Friedman added. “I feel like our regular season goal, we accomplished. We put ourselves in the very best position you can to go out and win 11 games in October. We didn’t come close to doing that. And I think they’re fairly clear answers as to why and others that aren’t as clear. But I think that passion is awesome, and I love it. But I feel like all of us are incredibly disappointed. And at least, the way my mind works, is taking this moment, learning what we can from what has happened and doing everything we can to avoid this going forward.”

Unfortunately, what has worked in the marathon regular seasons for the Dodgers and Roberts has not translated well into the postseason success. Other than the 2020 World Championship, the Dodgers have come up short in the other six postseasons under Roberts leadership. He has been scrutinized and criticized by baseball analysts and fans for questionable lineups and pitching decisions.

In Roberts’ own words: “I’ve made many mistakes going with my gut too much, or my heart, my eyes, and I’ve made mistakes going too much with the data.”

While Roberts “A hundred percent” will return as the Dodgers manager in 2023, his tenure beyond that may be fully dependent on the Dodgers future postseason success.

…or failure.

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