December 30th, 2021 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 There are an abundance of roster unknowns for the 2022 Dodgers that will not be completely settled anytime soon, perhaps not before the regular season trade deadline (also an unknown).
The team had 13 players elect free agency after the 2021 World Series; three pitchers (Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Kahnle, and Dustin May) continue to rehabilitate from Tommy John surgery; pitcher Trevor Bauer remains under MLB investigation for alleged sexual assault; and first baseman Max Muncy is slowly recovering from a torn UCL in his left (none throwing) elbow. And the MLB owners’ negotiating tactic of locking-out the players has brought Major League free agent signings and trades to a standstill.
No problem.
Nothing stops baseball journalists, analysts, bloggers, and fans from predicting the players the Dodgers will pursue through free agency, or trades. So, let’s get our crystal ball out of storage, polish it up, and see what direction the team will take to rebuild the roster for 2022.
Fangraphs projects a $227 million payroll for the Dodgers current 40-man roster. After paying a $32.65 million tax penalty for blowing through the 2021 competitive balance tax threshold ($210 million), the crystal ball says the owners tap the breaks on payroll spending for 2022. In order to sign higher profile free agents, including 33-year-old Dodgers veteran left-hander Clayton Kershaw, the team will have to trim payroll.
A significant reduction in payroll may come from a MLB suspension of Bauer. For example, a three-month suspension would reduce payroll by approximately $17 million (one-half of Bauer’s $34 million AAV). Other payroll reductions may come by trading 36-year-old left-hander David Price ($16 million AAV for Dodgers), 34-year-old left fielder AJ Pollock ($12 million), and/or 26-year-old center fielder Cody Bellinger ($17 million).
The Dodgers have a championship caliber lineup without making any changes to position players: catcher Will Smith, first baseman Max Muncy (if/when healthy), second baseman Gavin Lux, third baseman Justin Turner, shortstop Trea Turner, left fielder AJ Pollock, center fielder Cody Bellinger, right fielder Mookie Betts, and a bench that includes players like Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, or Zach McKinstry.
The crystal ball declares:
- High-priced free agents Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves first baseman) and Carlos Correa (Houston Astros shortstop) are not in the Dodgers future.
- Kershaw decides to finish his pitching career with the Texas Rangers.
- Dodgers sign free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke and infielder/outfielder Matt Duffy.
- Dodgers trade pitcher Tony Gonsolin, infielder/outfielder Matt Beaty, and relief pitcher Justin Bruihl to the New York Mets for infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil.
- Dodgers trade David Price, outfielder Luke Raley, and $8 million to the Chicago Cubs for two mid-level pitching prospects.
Well, Dodgers fans, that’s what the crystal ball asserts. What does your Ouija Board, Tarot cards, or crystal ball think the Dodgers will do with the 2022 roster? Let’s heat up this slow Hot Stove season.
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some mighty bold predictions there.
i do hope you’re 60% incorrect.
1 makes sense,
2,& 4 would make me sad,
3 would leave me perplexed on both counts
6 isn’t unreasonable.
am i missing something on Duffy? has not he played since 17 or is info missing? he seems like a big step down from Beaty, do we need another corner guy?
a little research found this guy. is this who you meant? i’m not familiar with either. still dont see the need.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyma01.shtml
40% accuracy for my crystal ball would be pretty good considering I picked it up many years ago off a K-mart blue light special (for those who remember K-mart).
Let me start with Duffy. Yes, the link you included is for Matt Duffy who came up through the Giants organization. Crystal ball saw Duffy as a guy who Roberts can use all over the field (other than catcher) who is an average ML hitter. The team is loaded with left hand hitting utility players (Beaty, Raley, Rios, McKinstry) none of whom are ML quality defensive players at third base. Dodgers did not think enough of Sheldon Neuse as a utility infielder to even keep him on the 40-man roster, so there is a need for a RH utility player.
Signing Greinke for one year only happens if Kershaw does leave. The crystal ball sees Greinke as a present day Greg Maddux style pitcher, with great command, ability to change speeds. His stats last year away from Houston were very good. With starting pitching prospects Ryan Pepiot, Landon Knack,and Bobby Miller projected to be ready by 2023, the Dodgers would only need Greinke for one year as a number 3 starter (no. 4 when/if Bauer returns).
Not sure which move has you perplexed. If it is the Mets trade, the crystal ball highly values the hitting of McNeil who can play LF, second base, and possibly third base.
Let me know if I missed something — enjoy discussing Dodgers with you.
I find it hard to believe we would give up that much for McNeil and think it’s too early to conclude Rios can not fill in behind JT at third base; same with Muncy…makes it debatable that we need to import someone to play 3B.
Remember that Rios had surgery last May for a partially torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder. Expecting him to make throws from third base is a huge risk — and, while his defense improved at third in 2020 it was relative to 2019 when he was terrible defensively — 2020 he was still awful. McNeil had a down year in 2021 for him, but the previous three seasons he was one of the best hitters in MLB with wRC+ 136, 144, 131. Gonsolin would be the top player traded for McNeil and he is easily replaced by Mitchell White, Andre Jackson, or perhaps Ryan Pepiot. With Rios, McKinstry, and McNeil on the roster, Beaty is expendable (and taking him off the roster improves the overall defense).
@Dodgers I like any trade involving Tony Gonsolin!!!
Talented pitcher who does not seem to handle the pressure of pitching for Dodgers. I think he may be a better pitcher for another team.
Can’t judge Gonsolin on his performance in 2021…he was hurt enough to discount his entire season; so he deserves another shot this season. He has a four pitch mix that will serve him well. That said he could go in a trade package for a top of the rotation guy.
Happy New Year Everyone.
Neuse never made any noise.
Mckinstry started great and fell off a cliff.
I suggested to you Greinke as a solid veteran SP previously.Rather sign Greinke than have to give up players for Sonnie Gray.
I like the Giants 2b Solano who is a free agent.
What about Joc P or Soler for DH if the NL goes for it.
Greinke makes a whole bunch more sense than Gray…better pitcher at lower cost to us and we only need him for 2022. McKinstry gets another shot…he obviously does better with consistent at bats and plays decent defense with second base being his best position actually. We could see Solano if we have to give up Lux to get starting pitching. Look for Andrew to bundle his trade chips in a more significant trade for pitching rather than piece meal them for utility players.
Correct, you brought up Greinke earlier — my bad for not giving you credit. McKinstry was injured then sent to OKC and did well with a .879 OPS, but the Dodgers continued to stick with Billy McKinney which seemed more political than a baseball talent decision. I am not as high on Solano as you are, but he could be an option.
Beaty’s numbers are comparable to McNeil’s. Why would we give up three players to get what we already essentially have? The additional defensive flexibility would not be worth the cost and we would probably save the trade chips mentioned for a better swap elsewhere…including starting pitching.
Show me the career numbers that show Beaty is anywhere close to McNeil, both offensively and defensively. Beaty’s best wRC+ is 114 in 2021 doesn’t come close to McNeil in 2018-20.