December 30th, 2020 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 Tip your collective hats to San Diego Padres Executive Vice President, General Manager A.J. Preller for aggressively trying to improve his team’s 2021 roster as they attempt to chase the LA Dodgers for the NL West supremacy. This is a Dodgers blog, so we are not going to get into the nitty-gritty of the recent Padres roster maneuvers; just give credit where credit is due and move on.
Meanwhile, baseball pundits, writers, and fans reacted quickly, wanting the Dodgers to counter the Padres moves by:
- Strengthening the starting rotation with the addition of free agent Trevor Bauer (the 2020 NL Cy Young award winner),
- Signing free-agent pitcher Liam Hendriks (the 2020 AL Fireman of the Year) as the team’s closer,
- Outbidding the New York Yankees and Mets to add DJ LeMahieu (AL 2020 Silver Slugger) for second base or third base,
- Trading for Colorado Rockies perennial Gold Glover Nolan Arenado or the Cincinnati Reds Eugenio Suarez to play third base,
- Acquiring a starting pitcher like the Reds Sonny Gray.
These players are really good to great – What Dodgers fan wouldn’t want to add players like them to the roster for 2021?
For all we know, some of these players have been on Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman’s shopping list for the last couple of months. But what we do know is that Friedman does not make knee-jerk transactions. He has a strategy and contingency plans for the 2021 season and several seasons in the future, and transactions that other teams make – even division rivals – will not alter his long-term plans.
Bobby Fischer, the great chess champion, once said:
“Winning in this game is all a matter of understanding how to capitalize on the strengths of each piece and timing their moves just right.”
Friedman’s roster-building is equivalent to a chess Grandmaster – building on the strengths of his players and strategizing eight moves ahead in order to win – and continue to win – the ultimate prize.
Of course, free agency, injuries, and a pandemic in 2020-21 adds other levels of complexity to a baseball executive’s plans. But that is why great executives have contingency plans; and make no mistake, Andrew Friedman is a great baseball executive.
(Photo credit – Tom Pennington)
Nonetheless, the Dodgers Hot Stove chatter is all about fans discussing player moves they hope the team will make to assure a second consecutive World Championship. So, what player moves do you believe Andrew Friedman should make?
- Does the team need another starting pitcher? If yes, which free agent do they sign? Or, which pitcher should they trade for, and which player(s)/prospect(s) would you be willing to give up in a trade?
- Is a closer needed for 2021, either a free agent or via trade?
- If the team re-signs Justin Turner, should they add another right-handed hitter? If yes, which free agent should they sign, or what trade would you make to fill that need?
- If Turner signs with another team, how would you replace him? Internally? Free-agent? Trade?
(Photo credit – Tom Pennington)
You’re the General Manager. Let us know the roster moves you would make for the 2021 season and who would be on your Opening Day 26-man active roster? Payroll implications? You decide whether you are going to avoid the Competitive Balance Tax threshold ($210 million), or you are going to blow through that number regardless of the tax implications.
Enjoy the exercise, have some fun, but be prepared for some good-natured banter amongst Dodgers fans who may disagree with your strategies. In the end, you can trust that Andrew Friedman will have the 2021 Dodgers well positioned for another World Championship.
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Posted in 
I’m not entirely convinced that Andrew is going to make a major acquisition this off-season.
If he re-signs Turner then a major trade is unnecessary. The one I think could be lurking out there, even if Turner comes back, is a deal with the Yankees for Gleyber Torres to play second base (now that Kim is in San Diego). Yankees really want a better catcher, and more left handed bats. Would probably take Ruiz and Lux which would be an overpay, so Yankees would have to include a lower level prospect in the deal. But that trade will not happen unless the Yankees re-sign LeMahieu for second base.
Would you rather have JT at 3 for 70-75 or Lemahieu at 5 for 120?
I don’t think it will take that much to sign JT; more likely 3 for 48-50 — and, he might take two guaranteed years with a third year option that vests based on games played/plate appearances in first two years of deal. But, using your numbers I would still take JT for a shorter contract. Turner’s career offensive stats are significantly better than LeMahieu (124 wRC+ to 111). Turner can still flat out hit, and his clubhouse intangibles are a huge plus.
At those numbers for JT wrap him up.
Then go get a strong arm for the pen.
Jimmy Nelson could be ready to contribute as a spot starter and long reliever.
I am hopeful that Dodgers and Turner will get a deal finalized in the next week. But I am still concerned that the Braves could give him $60M for 3 years to take him out of LA and become their starting third baseman. An additional $10M would be impossible for JT to turn down at his age.
Keep in mind
Dodgers projected payroll for
2022 is 126mil. Analysis
CK gone may be re signed
Seager or a suitable replacement will be added.
So add in say 50 mil.
That’s still only 176.
2023 David Price drops off as well.
Dodgers are in great position to spend 30-35 mil right now and still be under the luxury tax in 2022 with signing Seager and bringing back CK at somewhere around 20-25 mil.
So the dodgers should be able to signHand or Hendricks for closer and either sign Lemahieu or JT.
Very good payroll points, even though the Dodgers will have to pay some big dollars to Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler who are all arbitration eligible and getting closer to free agency. Kelly and Pollock will be gone ($5M buyout for Pollock).
Regardless of the amount, giving Turner more than two years is a recipe for disaster and definitely not Andrew’s style.
In the past Friedman has negotiated deals with one more year based on vesting hurdles, like games played, games pitched, etc. Another factor in favor of giving Turner a longer deal — there is no doubt that the NL will have the DH by 2022 — and there is a reasonable chance that it could be here in 2021. Turner’s swing mechanics remind me of Manny Mota – effortless. – that will allow him to hit for several more years.
Tough to upgrade rotation. Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo would work. Maybe Bauer which would take just cash and draft pick. He has CY upside and mediocre downside though.
3rd base/infield: Turner would be fine on just about any 2 year deal. 3 years seems like a stretch unless it really dings AAV. He’s not getting $16 mil per again, modern front offices don’t pay for past performance anymore. I think LaMaheiu is they’re best target now. Maaaybe Semien if he would be amenable to roving infield except 1st.
Chapman in Oakland, Suerez in Cincinnati or Ramirez in Cleveland would be nice targets.
LaMaheiu, Hendricks, AND Hand would shore up the less certain spots of roster. Save something for trade deadline.
A blockbuster with Cleveland (Ramirez/Bieber), or Cincinnati (Suarez/Castillo) would be worth trading several top prospects — I think a Cincinnati trade is more likely than Cleveland. Suarez and Castillo for Lux, Keibert Ruiz, Julio Urias, and outfield prospect DJ Peters would work for me. Chapman would be a terrific acquisition, but he so lowly paid to his value that I don’t see the A’s trading him unless the Dodgers are willing to send Dustin May and Gavin Lux in return. I would like to see Castellanos in LF in place of Pollock, but Dodgers would have to trade Pollock to make room. Turner? His WAR for each of the last 3 seasons: 4.2; 3.4; and 3.5 (prorated for short season). According to Fangraphs value calculation (~$8M in salary for 1 WAR) Turner is worth more than $20M per year. A 2 WAR puts in at $16M. I agree about two years, but give him a third year option that vests by number of games played in second year?
A massive trade with Cleveland for Bieber and Ramirez or with Cincinnati for Castillo and Suerez or maaaybe Castellanos could be cool be more towards Friedman’s liking though.
OK, I have a couple of deals — one of which will not be popular with most (all?) Dodgers fans.
Team wants a quality RH hitter? Sign free agent centerfielder George Springer — 5 years, $115M would likely put him in Dodger blue. He takes over CF, Bellinger goes to first base that will significantly upgrade the infield defense, Muncy shifts to second base.
Dodgers then trade for Red’s Suarez and Turner signs with another team.
Mookie Betts RF
Corey Seager SS
George Springer CF
Eugenio Suarez 3b
Cody Bellinger 1b
Will Smith C
Max Muncy 2b
AJ Pollock/Edwin Rios share LF
For Suarez the Dodgers send Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty, and Josiah Gray to Cincinnati
When Pollock’s contract is up move Springer to LF, Bellinger back to CF, and put Kody Hoese at first base. When Muncy’s contract is up put Michael Busch at 2b — plenty of money left to sign both Seager, Bellinger, and Buehler to extensions.
I LOVE the Bellinger at 1B thing.
The first time I laid eyes on Belli was at Rancho Cucamonga as a first baseman, and I was VERY impressed.
Now, this is certainly not to say that he isn’t an All-Star outfielder, but I have ALWAYS considered him a potential All-Star first baseman.
Seldom do I miss watching a Dodgers game on TV, and I am convinced that Bellinger at first base would improve the entire infields defensive rating.
As a dodger fan im not worrying about the padres,not one bit.My boys in Blue are Better.Being that Andrew Friedmen Dodgers president of baseball operations & World series champions.Thats Rigth”World Series Champions”.An incredible JOB you have done Andrew,once again Congratulations for bringing a world series to Los Angeles one of the best president of baseball operations if not the Best.