January 4th, 2019 at 8:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Remember when you showed up at the ballpark – or turned on the TV or radio – knowing who the Dodgers first baseman was going to be? For years – six to be exact – you knew without even looking or no matter who was pitching against the Dodgers that it was going to be five-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glover, two-time Silver Slugger Adrian Gonzalez, who played 735 games at 1B for the Dodgers.
As AGon’s time with the Dodgers was winding down, every Dodger fan on the planet knew that young Cody Bellinger was skyrocketing his way up through the minors and was the undisputed heir-apparent to replace Gonzalez. He did just that in 2017 and ended up winning the 2017 National League Rookie of the Year title while playing 93 games at first base compared to AGon’s 60, prompting the Dodgers to trade Gonzalez to the Atlanta Braves following the 2017 season as part of a major salary dumb that also brought beloved former Dodger Matt Kemp back to the team, among others.
And then came Max Muncy.
So valuable was Muncy’s left-handed bat (.263 / .391 / .582 / .973 with what ended up being a team-high 35 home runs in 2018) that the Dodgers absolutely had to have him in their line-up every day. As a result, Bellinger played 81 games in the outfield, with Muncy playing first base in 84 games, second base in 13 games, third base in 30 games, and left field in six games.
And then came analytics.
As the 2018 season progressed, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (under orders from Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman) began platooning his entire team based solely on pitching match-ups, as dictated by analytics. As a result and in spite of Muncy’s and Bellinger’s combined successes, eight different Dodgers saw playing time at first base during the season.
Even though Chase Utley, Kyle Farmer, and Logan Forsythe are no longer with the team, the Dodgers have added minor league infielders Matt Beaty and Edwin Rios to their 40-man roster in advance of spring training 2019. They have also extended a spring training invitation to recently acquired right-handed hitting minor league middle infielder Jeter Downs, who is also a viable option to play first base, although he will more than likely begin the 2019 season at Advanced Single-A Rancho Cucamonga.
(Photo credit – Eric Gay and Curtis Compton)
So there you have it. The Dodgers first baseman in 2019 will be…
Stay tuned…
Posted in 
Max has the bat, Cody has skills – that’s a tough one. Honestly, I can see Max moving to third as Justin, ahem…ages…
Max was not very good at 3rd the games he played there. He is just not very good defensively overall, which is why he is destined for the American League as a DH. He can be serviceable at 1st because of his bat, and my guess is he platoons with Freese this year to see if last year was a fluke or not (see Taylor, Chris). If he regresses back towards his previous stats, don’t be surprised if they include him in a mid-season package to an American League team to upgrade a position of need (bullpen arm, 2nd base, SP, etc), similar to what they did last year for Machado or Dozier.
Unless they acquire a stud CF, Bellinger will be the everyday CF, at least for this year.
I personally think a muncy for gennett even up would be very smart. Gennett is a solid fielder with a lot of pop. That takes care of a platoon system at second base. I also think maeda is a viable chip as is Pederson for kluber. They moved maeta to the pen last year but the pen looks solid this year and the addition of kluber makes maeda expendable. The final chip is Harper. Maybe they can renegotiate kershaw’s contract to pay him less this year to be able to bring Harper on board and catch up on Kershaw the two following years on his contract when a ton of money comes off the books. Food for thought
With all due respect WHAT?! Why would the Reds trade for Muncy when they have this guy named Joey Votto playing 1b? Secondly it’s “Maeda”. Thirdly, the Dodgers have no interest in Harper and smartly so. Let alone him at 1b. Please people
Kershaw’s contract extension may be technically in effect but he hasn’t even warmed up under it yet. Does the union contract say anything about that?
Should we be adding Bryce Harper to 2019 1st base possibilities?
Probably not, the latest “MLB Rumor” is Nats offering “Much More than $300M”. I think he ends up back with the Nats. He is most valuable to them.
Can’t see Friedman paying “much more than $300M” for a poor mans, Max Muncy.
2018 stats:
Muncy, .263 BA, 35 HRs, .391 OBP, .973 OPS, 4.8 OWAR
Harper, .249 BA, 34 HRs, .393 OBP, .899 OPS, 4.2 OWAR
NO and hell to the no. Not gonna happen and rightfully shouldn’t. Not at any position.
Imagine if the Dodgers would’ve won the World Series how important and great analytics would be. Much more than it is and everybody, I mean everybody, would be saying, “That’s the way to go”.
Not so, Joe.
I believe that analytics are important, especially on defense for shifts and positioning outfielders, but it cannot – at least it should not – replace the eye test.
When Joc Pederson hit home runs in three consecutive games and Doc (Andrew) sat him in the fourth game for no other reason than a left-hander was starting was just plain stupid. You have to, or at least should (in my opinion) stick with the hot hand. How are left-handed hitters supposed to learn how to hit lefties if they are never given the opportunity simply because analytics dictates it?
Analytics should be used as a tool, not as an absolute.
See what I mean?
Dodgers traded away puig kemp and woods
Trust me they got there 2nd base covered w Jeter Downs will have 1st opportunity to lead off as well…they will definitely try to give muncy the job…belly will remain their main flex player if they can’t lock up left field with someone else
You really think they will give Downs, a player play rookie ball and Lord level in the minors and batted .250 chance to lead off with the big team?
Downs has really good baseball skills, but he will not compete for a spot on Dodgers Roster earlier than 2020 and more likely 2021.
By every indication, Jeter Downs has superstar written all over him. But he won’t be 21 until July and his highest level played thus far has been Low Single A.
Even if he has an exceptional spring, I see him at least beginning the 2019 season at Advanced Single-A Rancho Cucamonga and maybe finishing it at Double-A Tulsa.
…but you just never know.
I guess I’m an anachronistic baseball fan. I recall Garvey playing first for the Dodgers in the 70’s and would not play if he was hurt or had the game-off. I’m Not a fan of analytics, I’d prefer one or two guys at most per position.
Interesting memories. My memory is that when Garvey left the Dodgers he was on a consecutive games streak second only to Lou Gehrig, well over 1000.
I was actually going to use The Garv in my article but figured that some of the “kids today” might not know much about him.
Here are the all-time Top-10:
1. Cal Ripken, Jr – 2,632
2. Lou Gehrig – 2,130
3. Everett Scott – 1,307
4. Steve Garvey – 1,207
5. Miguel Tejada – 1,152
6. Billy Williams – 1,117
7. Joe Sewell – 1,103
8. Stan Musial – 895
9. Eddie Yost – 829
10. Gus Suhr – 822
We will NEVER see anything even remotely close to this again with today’s analytics.
OK, reckon he was third. Cal, Jr. came later.
to Robin Mosqueda: Are you sure you wasn’t referring to some other player?
Offensively, I think Muncy is the next Justin Turner if the Dodgers will allow him to play regularly at 1b (forget 2b and 3b) with only occasional games off for rest and keep Freese sharp (also gives Turner at least one game off per week during the regular season). His defense really improved at 1b later in the season although he will never be a gold glove candidate. Leave Bellinger in CF and he will become gold glove quality.
Justin Turner is a right handed hitter who is much more of a line drive-gap hitter than Muncy. He also play 3rd base, and is an excellent fielder. Max is a left handed power hitter who hits fly balls. He is not good defensively, even at 1rst base. Turner also does not strike out nearly as much. Not to sure him being the next Justin Turner; he needs to concentrate on just being Max Muncy
Intent of comparison was that both players were released by their respective organizations (Turner Mets, Muncy A’s) and Dodgers signed them as free agents. Both worked hard to change hitting mechanics and approaches and when given the opportunity to play exceeded all expectations. Obviously there are physical differences and are not the same type of hitters.
As long as the Dodgers have Muncy they’ll play him most at 1B….assuming he doesnt regress hard.
If people think Muncy belongs in the A.L. Why don’t they think that of Harper? In my opinion he’s got DH written all over him for his poor defense & strong bat. But if he were signed by the Dodgers (I doubt it) why not put him in LF with Verdugo in RF?
I agree, Harper in LF makes sense. Ditto for Castellanos if he is acquired rather than Harper. I thought Muncy’s 1b defense really improved toward the end of last season. He has the reputation of a hard worker so if Dodgers will leave him at 1b I think he could become an average fielder there.
I think Harper has DH/LF/1st base written all over him, and he’s going to be a liability at the last two positions soon. Dodgers will pass on Harper and rightfully so, with the money being thrown around and the loss of the 31st pick in this years draft. I suppose Harper could make it happen by SUBSTANTIALLY lowering his contract demands, but he won’t. I think he goes back to the Nats, which is a good situation for him.
I’m starting to think Dodgers won’t be making ANY major moves. Although, Machada could also make it happen with a high AAV 5-6 yr contract with opt-outs. But again, the rumors are he’d rather be with the Yankees and they’d sign him if he gives them the above contract. He probably isn’t coming to LA.
Latest Realmuto rumors have Marlins wanting Bellinger and Verdugo. I wouldn’t trade either of them for him let alone both. I see Grandal coming back on a 2 yr, 28-30M contract with a one year opt-out. Maybe even a little front end loaded contract to encourage an opt-out (How’s that for using an opt-out to the teams advantage) but giving Grandal a little extra security over a one year deal if he’s hurt/sucks in 2019.
I do see us signing one of LeMahieu, Dozier or Marwin Gonzalez for 2nd base and the right handed hitting impact bat. Yeah, a little disappointing, but probably reality. I don’t see Castellanos unless Detroit gets real.
Maybe Kluber could happen (but probably not) if Cleveland would take something like Taylor, one of Maeda, Stripling or Hill and a middle of the road prospect or two.
Lastly, with Friedman’s tendency to look for potential high impact, cheap relievers maybe we’ll sign somebody like Kelvin Herrera. I’d like that.
We have a competitive team already with a very good probability of getting into the playoffs in 2019. Friedman won’t majorly sacrifice the future just to increase our 2019 Championship chances.
Why bring Grandal back other than a one year deal? Absolutely do not take the chance, even with a front loaded contract, that Grandal suffers an injury or such a horrible year that he does not opt out of second year. Just say NO to Grandal! Marwin Gonzalez for 2b and move Taylor to LF — I am all in on that move, but I think Tigers will come around and take a good package for Castellanos. Another option, Hunter Renfroe from the Padres. They want starting pitching so give them Kenta Maeda who is under team control with a very team friendly contract and 3b prospect Ed Rios for Renfroe. Indians want OF’ers rather than starting pitching so package Pederson and Toles along with 2b/C prospect Conner Wong for Trevor Bauer if Indians want to keep Kluber.
I see a two year contract with Grandal as the cheapest way to get decent catching depth for 2019. I don’t like any of the Realmuto rumors and I didn’t like the Stripling for Cervelli rumor either. I think Stripling is a potential big time stud and with his remaining 4 yrs of control a very valuable asset.
Even if Grandal didn’t opt-out of the 2nd yr of his contract, if he was only owed $10-12M, the then 31 yr old Grandal would probably be very trade-able if the Dodgers desired.
You may be correct that Tigers come around on Castellanos, he made $6.5M in 2018 and is probably due a decent raise. However, with only one yr left on his contract, how is he worth any more than what Grandal should be worth in a year? So far Tigers don’t see it that way.
Sign me up for former 13th overall pick, 26 yr old Hunter Renfroe. With his 4 yrs of remaining control he’d be a huge get. I’d even give more than Maeda and Rios for him.
Cleveland wants outfielders, but they also look like they are lacking in starter depth, especially if they traded Kluber or Bauer. I’d really like to see us get one of those two if possible and agree one of our catching prospects would probably be in any deal with them. I just don’t see Cleveland actually pulling the trigger except for a huge haul.
I am through with Grandal. I cannot take another season of pitches going between his legs, off to the side, loosing balls at his feet, missing throws from the OF, regularly crossing up pitchers, and LONG periods of hitless games. I don’t want him if he would take the same pay as last season — and I believe he feels the same way about Dodgers (being benched in consecutive post seasons) and its fans (being boo’d off the field after 2 passed balls and 2 errors). I am all for passing on Realmuto unless Marlins become very reasonable in their trade expectations, but I would rather find a catching partner for Barnes and keep both Smith and Ruiz. Good point, it may take more than Maeda and Rios — perhaps Conner Wong, or Cristian Santana — but putting Renfroe in RF and Verdugo in LF (Renfroe’s defensive stats in LF are really bad whereas he is above average in RF) with Bellinger makes a very good OF. Then Pederson can be used to strengthen another area. What would it take to acquire Jason Castro from the Twins in his walk year?
Good day, SoCal. I am pretty much on board with moving on from Grandal for all those reasons and examples you pointed out. In any event, on this day I believe the most important move Dodgers can make is for an impact RH bat to go in the middle of lineup so we have at least some defense against the LHP Dodgers may be bound to see, especially in light of what took place in this past WS with Boston. As for catching, trading for Realmuto appears to be impossible to consider, what with the Marlin’s demands for him.. he only has 2 years of team control as well. A stop gap catcher to go with Barnes for this year anyway should be the way to go, thereby allowing Dodgers to fill other needs. Hunter Renfroe is someone to consider in a deal as well. He is a RHB and that is key IMHO.
I keep thinking about the Dodgers having two catcher prosects that are “a year away.” What does that really mean? Why couldn’t either Smith or Ruiz emerge in Spring as a viable option on the big club?
Another thought is Puig was a plus-plus defensive player (at times & IF he hit his cutoff) but had become an average offensive player. Isn’t Harper essentially the exact opposite? Plus-plus offensive player and has become an average defensive player (if that?). Will Harper grouse about being platooned – if he were?
Last, I remember how highly sought after Dozier was before the Dodgers “settled” for Forsythe. Was his time with the Dodgers an anomaly, was he over touted for his time with Twins, or is he due for an offensive rebound?
Yes, Smith and/or Ruiz could have a terrific ST, or they could struggle. Smith only had a brief taste of AAA ball and struggled offensively, Ruiz has never played above AA. Going to ST with only the hope that either could emerge as a catching partner with Barnes is not a good plan for a team intent on winning the WS in 2019. Puig had one good defensive season in 2017, but no better than average for his career and still overthrows cutoff, sails throws, and misjudges fly balls. Harper is by far the better player and no team, including the Dodgers, is going to platoon him. Dozier? If he will take a modest, one year contract I think the Dodgers could be interested if they cannot acquire a legit, offensive OF’er. Dozier at 2b with Taylor moving to the OF could be a fall back position.