January 21st, 2014 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka A little over a year ago at his introductory press conference, former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke was asked by the Dodger media what it was like being the (then) highest paid pitcher in MLB history. In true Greinke style, the 29-year-old Orlando, Florida native and proud owner of a six-year / $147 million contract glanced at reporters and said “Probably not for long.” And indeed this was the case as within two months Seattle’s “King” Felix Hernandez signed a seven-year / $175 million contract and Detroit’s Justin Verlander a seven-year / $180 million contract – not to mention Clayton Kershaw’s recent seven-year / $215 million deal signed just last week.
Zack Greinke and Magic Johnson at Zack’s introductory press conference on December 11, 2012. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
As we enter the final week of the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes the rumors continue to run rampant, just as they have for the past six months in what has become a daily soap opera. The latest rumor came via Twitter from Chicago Cubs blogger Tom Loxas who claims he was ‘told’ that the “Cubs offer to Tanaka could exceed $160 million” This was followed with a tweet from fellow blogger Ty Youngfelt saying: “Hearing Dodgers unlikely to match Cubs offer, instead using geographical, team strength issues as selling points to bridge gap…”
Of course the burning question is: ‘told’ and ‘hearing’ from whom? Unless these guys or their ‘reliable sources’ are named Masahiro Tanaka, Casey Close (Tanaka’s agent) or people directly involved in these closed-door or over-the-phone negotiations, they simply don’t hold any water and should be taken exactly for what they are – rumors.
If the name Casey Close sounds familiar to you it very well should. Not only is he Tanaka’s agent but he is also the guy who negotiated that Greinke deal and last week’s new record-setting Kershaw deal. (He is also Derek Jeter’s agent). If you want to start a rumor, there is none better than the Dodgers having the inside track on landing the highly coveted Japanese right-hander because of the well-established and (apparently) very good working relationship between Casey Close and Dodgers ownership (not to mention their very deep pockets); but then why further disappoint already disappointed Cubs fans with a rumor that probably has more merit to it than anything coming out of the Windy City.
Super agent Casey Close with his wife Gretchen Carlson – host of The Real Story with Gretchen Carlson on Fox News. (Photo credit – Marc Dimov)
Putting all of the rumors and speculation aside, one has to ask oneself: Does Masahiro Tanaka actually deserve a MLB contract that will most likely rival that of Zack Greinke’s? That’s a tough call and it really boils down to your own personal perception of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league. Do you see it as being on the same level as the MLB or is it more of a AAA or AAAA-type league? Again, that’s your call to make. But what cannot be disputed, not even a little bit, is that Tanaka is very very good.
To put it in perspective, if you do consider the NPB as being on the same level as the MLB (or relatively close to it), what Tanaka did in 2013 was not only remarkable, it was something that has never been done in the MLB. Tanaka went 24-0 in his 27 starts during the 2013 regular season with an insane ERA of 1.27. (He also picked up a save in his one relief appearance). In the 130+ year history of the MLB, no pitcher has ever had a 20+ win season without a loss. In fact, the closest any MLB pitcher has ever come is three losses, of which there have been only seven:
- Ron Guidry (NYY): 25-3 – 1978
- Cliff Lee (CLE): 22-3 – 2008
- Preacher Roe (BRO): 22-3 – 1951
- Fred Goldsmith (CHI): 21-3 – 1880
- Max Scherzer (DET): 21-3 – 2013
- Roger Clemens (NYY): 20-3 – 2001
- David Cone (NYM): 20-3 – 1988
What makes Tanaka’s 24-win season with the Rakuten Golden Eagles even more incredible is that the NPB plays a 144-game schedule compared to the MLB’s 162-game schedule – he had fewer starts to get those 24 wins, but do so anyway.
Tanaka did in the NPB what no pitcher has ever done in the MLB – win more than 20 games without a loss. (Photo credit – Kathy Willens)
Whether or not Masahiro Tanaka is worth a $140 million-ish contract is certainly debatable. But what isn’t debatable is that he is will undoubtedly get one – any I, for one, hope that it is from the Dodgers.
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It is always hard to know who will make the jump. Win/Loss isn’t always the most telling stat but, come on, 24 and 0. That is just dominant. When you count in the post season he as 30 – 0!!! Wow! “Mā-kun” or “Mā” as he is called by his nickname in Japan has some pretty incredible movement on all pitches. Take a look at this article by David Schoenfield at ESPN in particular using Pitchf/x technology to gauge release point and actual movement. http://bit.ly/tanakafx
Here Schoenfield compares Tanaka to Kershaw (4-seam FB), Greinke (Slider) and Darvish (Splitter/Changeup) as far as movement on particular pitches is concerned. Pitchf/x used his WBC footage from 2009 and I can only imagine that he as improved since then. The takeaway is that Tanaka has incredible movement and spin on all pitches from a very low release point which causes another interesting effect which is a “rising or upward” movement on his 4 seam fast ball that apparently has more movement than Kershaw’s similar pitch! All of this means nothing until he takes to the mound but he appears to be the real deal.
I agree on the win thing, but when you throw in his 1.27 ERA, it makes the win thing far more important.
Imagine how his teammates felt every six days when he took the mound. It was like money in the bank.
Tanaka apparently threw yesterday and showed off a pitch that nobody knew he had – a rising cutter to go along with his rising 4-seam fastball. Is that even possible?
I don’t think a rising fastball is possible but it can cause an illusion that it is. Since he starts so low with his release point it looks like it is rising but it is really just “not dropping” quite as fast as other pitches. His slider appears to be his out pitch but he has a lot of movement on everything. I have heard a lot about his splitter but with the whole smaller ball thing that may not translate. His metrics compare to our 1 and 2 starters on his 4 seam and slider so this thing is quite interesting.
It would be a tragedy if the Cubs get him. They are just not ready to compete. I do think that he has to be going back in forth with more $ with perhaps Chicago and NY but he really wants to come to LA. It is a natural fit.
I’m betting that a seventh year is going to be the deal maker/breaker.
It’s hard for me to judge if the NPB is equal to the MLB but just going by the reports from people who should know, he looks like he can come close to 24-0 in the MLB. How close it’s hard to say.
No one knows, at the moment, if he’ll end up with the Dodgers, but he certainly looks worth waiting for.
The key for this guy is gonna be his splitter. The ball is bigger in MLB so the pitch won’t behave quite the same. Kuroda had to make the same adjustment and he doesn’t throw his split nearly as much anymore.
I think his slider is very underrated and as Harold alluded to, compares similarly to Greinke’s (pretty damn good).
I have heard that his slider is his bread-and-butter pitch. But also that his 4 seam fastball has lots of movement on more than one plane. The highlight reels show more often than not a splitter in the dirt but the ball size appears to be an issue as he moves to the MLB. We will see. This is exciting!
Tanaka is going to sign with the Yankees. It was nice to dream for a while of the possibilities in a Dodger rotation. The “Kings of Overpaying” paid 155M for 7 years. They just needed him a lot more than the Dodgers did and with the A-Rod mess clearer and not signing Cano they had some cash burning a hole in their pocket.
It appears that this was, in fact, the case:
$22+ million is a lot of yen.