July 12th, 2012 at 7:50 am 
by Evan Bladh 
The Great Carnac
As we prepare for the official second half of the 2012 season, let me throw out some numbers and get your feelings as to whether the Dodgers will accomplish some of them. With half a season to gauge things, let’s see who the true Nostradamus is out there. It’s not like we are going in blind. We’ve had 87 games to watch they boys in blue. I suggest a game of over/under, (and in some cases: yes/no). At the end of the season, we can look back and see who was most accurate with their predictions.
1) Matt Kemp currently has 12 home runs. Can he hit 30 this season? That’ll require him to hit one every four games. He certainly has been on hot streaks before, but will the lay-off keep him from being the player that he was before. Matt Kemp – 30 homers, over or under?
2) Kenley Jansen has 15 saves. Will he finish with 35? That’s 20 more saves over the final 75 games, which would be saving 27% of the remaining games on the schedule. Jansen – 35 saves, over or under?
3) James Loney has hit 2 home runs this year. Can he hit five for the season? Loney – 5 homers, over or under?
4) Juan Uribe, will he be issued his unconditional release before the trade deadline? Juan Uribe – gone before July 31st or after?
5) Dee Gordon currently has 30 stolen bases and is on the mend from surgery for his dislocated thumb for about 5 1/2 to 6 weeks., meaning he’ll likely return around August 20th. Can he steal 15 more on the season in the remaining 40 games that he will be a part of? Dee Gordon – 45 stolen bases, over or under?
6) Chris Capuano currently has a 9-4 record on the season. Will he win 17 games? It is estimated that if he continues on and remains healthy, he will have 15 more starts on the year. He’ll need to be the winning pitcher in 8 of those 15 starts. Capuano – 17 wins, over or under?
7) Andre Ethier started strongly, but his recent slump and current injury has set him behind the league leaders in Runs batted in. He led the majors in RBIs a month ago. He has remained at 55 for about two weeks now. Will Ethier rebound and start driving in runs again. Andre Ethier – 100 RBI for the year, over or under?
8) We have all been pleased with AJ Ellis’ production this year, both with the bat and behind the plate. His on-base percentage currently sits at .404. Will his OBP remain over .400 by season’s end? A.J. Ellis – OBP .400 or higher, over or under?
9) Clayton Kershaw was a different pitcher in the second half of last season. He steamrolled his way to a 21 win season and a Cy Young Award. Currently with a 6-5 record and 2.91 ERA, he’d need to run the table and go undefeated the remainder of his starts to duplicate last year’s production, something that is highly unlikely. He leads the league in innings pitched and is scheduled to start 15 or 16 more games. How many complete games shutouts will Clayton finish with? He has one so far. Will Clayton Kershaw have four shutouts to finish the year? Over or under?
10) Ronald Belisario has been a lights out set up man. His ERA currently sits at 1.53 over 29.1 innings pitched. Will Belisario finish with an ERA over or under 2.00?
11) Ted Lilly is said to have started throwing again. He was 5-1 with a 3.14 ERA before going down with injury. Will Lilly return this season and be effective? Lilly returns – yes or no?
12) Zach Lee and Garrett Gould have been mentioned in numerous trade rumors. Do Lee and/or Gould remain in the Dodger organization beyond July 31 or are they traded for some much needed offensive punch? Zach Lee, Garrett Gould – Dodgers after July 31, 2012, yes or no?
13) The Dodgers as a team have been shut out 8 times this season. The 1968 Dodgers were shutout 23 teams that season, so they are nowhere near setting that dubious franchise mark, but will they be shutout 5 more times this season? 13 shutouts pitched against the Dodgers for the season, over or under?
14) Rubby De La Rosa is reported to have begun throwing again. His Tommy John surgery was completed 11 months ago. He had electric stuff and was viewed as a potential starting pitcher in the top rungs of the rotation for years to come. Will he be effective again? Will De La Rosa be back in the starting rotation before the season is over, yes or no?
15) Chad Billingsley has disappointed so far this year with a 4-9 record and 4.30 ERA. Will Billingsley rebound and finish the year with an ERA under 4.00? Billingsley – ERA under 4.00, over or under?
16) The longest winning streak the Dodgers have had this season is a 6 game string between May 17-22. Will the Dodgers put together a winning streak longer than six games, over or under?
17) Finally, now that we are just past the midpoint of the season with the Dodgers at 47-40 and ahead in the division by 1/2 a game. There are 75 games left to play. Where do you think they’ll finish? To win 85 games, the Dodgers will have to finish one game over .500 the rest of the way. What do you say? 85 wins, over or under?
18a) Will the Dodgers win the NL West, yes or no? If yes, will they win the division by more than 2 games, over or under?
18b) If no, will they finish over or under 2 games behind?
Posted in 
1) Under, 2) Over, 3) Over, 4) Gone – Please G-d!!!, 5)Over, 6) 17 on the button, 7) Over, but this is probably wishful thinking, 8) just under, 9) Just under (because Donny won’t let him finish!), 10) Under, 11) Yes, he returns, but he will be ineffective, 12) One goes, one stays, we get some old dude that will be of little or no help in return, 13) Under – Kemp & Ethier will prevent most shutouts, 14) No, 15) Under, 16) Over (8 games), 17) Over, 18a) over, 18b) n/a (how can you even consider such a thing?!!!
1. Under (but I hope I’m wrong)
2. Over
3. Under
4. Gone – they can’t be idiots
5. Over (he’ll never let that thumb stop him)
6. Yes
7. Under I fear
8. Over
9. Under
10. Over
11. Yes
12. Have no idea
13. Under – absolutely
14. No
15. Over
16. Over
17. Over
18. Yes – you didn’t need to have an 18b
As a relative newcomer to the forum, Evan, you may not be aware that I always make predictions for the upcoming season over on the TBLA forum (the blog site wasn’t up and running when I posted this year’s predictions; I’ll post them on the blog site from here on out). I post them solely in fun and entertainment and only after having spent quite a bit of time at spring training watching the team (especially the pitching). I base my predictions solely on my own personal observations, knowing the game, my gut feelings and heretofore knowing how Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti operate. A couple of our forum members have taken exception to my predictions in the past which, of course, is their prerogative, but as I always do, I call ’em like I see ’em – even if the truth hurts.
Last year (for the 2011 season) I was scary-close on roughly 75-80% of my predictions and I’m not doing too bad this year either. I don’t do them quite as you have in an over/under format, but rather as… well… predictions.
Here are my 2012 predictions which I posted the morning of Opening Day. You tell me how I did/am doing: My 2012 Predictions.
1) Kemp – Under 30 HRs.
2) Kenley – Under 35 saves.
3) Loney – Under 5 HRs (he will be gone in three weeks).
4) Uribe – Gone before July 31
5) Gordon – Under 45 SB (he will be gun shy when he returns).
6) Capuano – Under 17 wins (but probably 15).
7) Ethier – Under 100 RBIs.
8) A.J. – Under .400 OBP. (I’ll stick with my original prediction of .360).
9) Kershaw – Under4 CG SO’s.
10) Belisario – Over 2.00 ERA, but not by much.
11) Lilly – He will not return to the rotation.
12) Lee and Gould – Both will used as trade bait and will be gone by July 31.
13) Shut outs – Under 13.
14) De La Rosa – No if the Dodgers sign Dempster or Hamels / Yes if they do not.
15) Billingsley – Over 4.00.
16) Winning streak – Over 6 games – if not, they will not win the West.
17) 85 wins – Over (but not by much).
18a) Will the Dodgers win the NL West – No
18b) More than 2 GB – (There is no homer here).
1. O
2. U
3. U
4. BEFORE
5. O
6. O
7. O
8. O
9. U
10. U
11. N
12. 1y / 1n
13. U
14. Y
15. O
16. O
17. O
18. Y AND O
I never did leave my picks:
1) Matt Kemp finishes with just UNDER 30 HRs
2) Kenley Jansen saves OVER 35.
3) James Loney hits OVER 5 homers, WHOOPPEEEE!
4) Juan Uribe, will not be DFA’d. I pray to God that I’m wrong.
5) Dee Gordon steals OVER 45 bags.
6) Chris Capuano finishes with just UNDER 17 wins.
7) Andre Ethier finishes with OVER 100 RBI.
8) AJ Ellis finishes with an OBP in the .375 range, so I say UNDER .400.
9) Clayton Kershaw finishes with exactly four shutouts.
10) Ronald Belisario finishes with an ERA UNDER 2.00.
11) Ted Lilly returns.
12) Neither Zach Lee or Garrett Gould is traded. Chris Withrow or Ethan Martin may be gone though.
13) The Dodgers are shutout UNDER 13 times this season.
14) Rubby De La Rosa will be in the rotation by mid September and he’ll shine.
15) Chad Billingsley’s second half is better and he finishes with an ERA UNDER 4.00.
16) The Dodgers longest winning streak will be OVER 6 games.
17) The Dodgers finsih with OVER 85 wins. I say 90.
18a) The Dodgers win the NL West in the last series at home against the Giants by 1 game. It’ll be a final series that is talked about for years to come. But it might be the D-Backs that finish in second.
18b) Not applicable.
1 – Over
2 – Over
3 – Over
4 – After
5 – Over
6 – Over
7 – Over
8 – Under
9 – Under
10 – Under
11 – No
12 – No
13 – Under
14 – No
15 – Over
16 – Over (8 game)
17 – Over
18 – Over
1. Under
2. Over
3.. Loney 5 homers? NO WAY,UNDA!!
4. P. U-ribe WILL be gone before July 31st
5. Dee under45- I say just under 43
6. Capuono- Over 17 wins
7. Ethier over 100 RBI’s
8. Ellis OBP .400- Hells yeah OVER
9. Kersh under 4 shutouts. BUT………here is a bold prediction, I say he throws a NO-NO by years end!!!
10. Belli Over 2.00 ERA
11. Put a fork in Lilly he is done!
12. Can’t answer right now, have to wait and see:))) lol
13. 13 shutouts— NO WAY, UNDA!!
14. DeLaRosa back this year? NOPE, S’matter of fact I say he is trade bait!
15. Bills OVER 4.00 ERA
16. Under 6 game win streak
17. Over 85 wins, JUST! 87
“14. DeLaRosa back this year? NOPE, S’matter of fact I say he is trade bait!”
Now there’s something I never considered. That is a real possibility, Mike.