The 2016 First Year Player Draft is less than a month away with round one getting underway on Thursday June 9th and the fortieth round wrapping up on Saturday, June 11th. The draft – alternately referred to as the June Draft, Amateur Draft or Rule 4 Draft – will be streamed from MLB Network’s studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. The Philadelphia Phillies will pick first overall for the second time in their history.

This is the 51st year of the draft that was instituted in 1965 to attempt to seek a more competitive balance among major league baseball teams. Although the Dodgers have never been awarded a first overall selection, Dodger fans will remember that play-by-play announcer Rick Monday was the first player to ever have his name called in the inaugural draft. The Dodgers have selected players who later became first overall selections but chose not to sign at the time they were picked by the Dodgers – David Price (2004) and Luke Hochevar (2002 and 2005).

Dodger fans may also recall that the 1968 draft by the Dodgers is largely considered to be by far the most productive team draft ever. In all 15 players selected in that draft by the Dodgers made it to majors. Nine of them played for the Dodgers – Davey Lopes, Geoff Zahn, Bobby Valentine, Bill Buckner, Tom Paciorek, Joe Ferguson, Doyle Alexander, Steve Garver, Ron Cey.

Al Campanis, the Dodgers General manager in 1968, wanted to improve his approach on the draft so he turned to football that has had an entry draft since 1936. He consulted with Los Angeles Rams owner Dan Reeves and San Diego Chargers coach Sid Gillman. Gillman directed Campanis to Chargers director of player personnel Al LoCasale who had a profound influence on Campanis.

“He actually showed me how to draft,” Campanis told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick in a 1988 story for Baseball America. “He explained the difference between drafting the best athlete or going for need. He showed us how to rank players on a scale of 100 based on fundamental skills. He took a neophyte and taught me how to approach a draft, and I think this helped us.”

In April of 1987 Campanis’ tenure with the Dodgers came to an end – and coincidence or not – the Dodgers have not made a World Series appearance since 1988.

This year the Dodgers have four of the first 65 selections. Along with their number 20 and number 65 picks they have a number 32 selection as compensation for Zack Greinke who signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. A fourth selection – number 36 – comes as compensation for not being able to sign pitcher Kyle Funkhouser whom they had drafted in the 35th round of last year’s draft. Speculation is that Funkhouser may not have improved his draft prospects as his 2016 campaign with the University of Louisville Cardinals features a 4.54 ERA along with a 1.44 WHIP and 40 walks in 70 innings.

The 2016 drafting class has been described as soft even compared to the class of 2015. There is no one player that is considered a given as the first overall selection. There is no Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant or Clayton Kershaw. However, that does not mean that teams still cannot have a strong draft relative to the competition.

The top overall selection among the many mock drafts for 2016 is still very much in a state of flux with pitchers Jason Groome, A.J. Puk and Riley Pint garnering much of the attention but recently being challenged by outfielders Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray as well as third baseman Nick Senzel.

“I think it’s the most uncertain top five in recent memory,” one scouting executive said.

Let the speculation begin. What will be the Dodgers drafting strategy? Will it follow last’s year scenario, the first with President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman at the helm? Will necessity cause a new plan to be followed? In January former Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos was hired by the Dodgers as Vice-president of Baseball Operations. Will his success at ferreting out quality young arms for the Blue Jays come into play with the Dodgers 2016 draft selections?

I expect it is pretty much a certainty that the truth will not be known until the draft has been completed and even then a drafting pattern may not emerge. Maybe it boils down to expediency or the luck of the draft. There are a number of ways to go heading into the draft. How long a plan can be followed is almost totally dependent on what the other 29 teams do with their preferred selections.

Jeff Ellis of “Scouting Baseball” perhaps sets the stage for the Dodgers’ drafting plan:” When I look at what Dodgers President Andrew Friedman did in the draft last year and the past few years with the Rays, it is clear that he has a very conservative drafting approach.”

• Although Friedman may be conservative in his approach, will circumstances dictate a deviation from that plan and force him to turn early – seemingly not his preferred choice – to high school players, more specifically to high school pitchers?

“The strength of this draft is high school pitchers,” a National League scouting director said. “There are a whole lot of general managers who don’t want to take high school pitchers early, but you have to adjust to the talent that’s out there. The guys who are better at the Draft are the guys who know that.”

Certainly some viable options with the 20th pick may well be: Joshua Lowe (3B), Kevin Gowdy (RHP), Reggie Lawson (RHP), Alex Kirilloff (OF), Carter Kieboom (3B), Braxton Garrett (LHP), Matt Manning (RHP).

Joshua Lowe
(Photo courtesy of popeathletics.com)

• Will the Dodgers follow their 2015 plan in which they took pitchers Walter Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with their first two selections most likely knowing Buehler would require Tommy John surgery and Funkhouser was thought to be a steal but signability might be an issue, which it was? It seems Andrew Friedman has an eye for players who have fallen out of top-10 selection territory.

Two definite possibilities for the Dodgers in June would be Stanford’s Cal Quantrill and Oregon’s Mark Krook both of whom have had Tommy John surgery and fallen in the draft as a result of their surgeries, perhaps out of the top-10. Quantrill, the son of Paul Quantrill who spent the 2002 and 2003 seasons with the Dodgers, had his surgery in March of 2015. Krook returned to action in 2016 after his Tommy John surgery in 2014.

Cal Quantrill
(Photo credit – Andrew Prezioso)

• Will the Dodgers look more specifically to position players who may tumble into their laps? Prep players Joshua Lowe and Nolan Jones, both third basemen, may well be available with the 20th pick. Another choice that most likely might be taken without much hesitation would be outfielder Nick Banks if still available that late in round one.

Nick Banks
(Photo courtesy of 12thman.com)

• With their first selection will the Dodgers be looking for projectabilty? That is, a player with a good frame that has not yet filled out meaning the player has an untapped ability to grow, mature and improve. It can be a skinny pitcher with a very fast arm. It can be a great swing from someone who will fill out and become stronger. It can be many things that could cause a scout to think a player is projectable. It requires looking ahead a couple of years trying to determine what his ceiling might be.

Taylor Ward of “Baseball Scouting” suggests the Dodgers have built their farm system predicated on safe, projectable picks: “The Dodgers have one of the top farm systems in baseball and they take projectable players who are also safety picks. Jefferies is another case for one of the best pitchers in the nation who could be an undervalued arm. The Dodgers can save some bonus money here and use the rest with their pick that is 12 selections away.”

The Jefferies to whom Ward refers is 6’0” -180 lb Daulton Jefferies out of California University. Although not comparing Jefferies to Sonny Gray, MLB.Com makes a case for smaller players that also may be projectable: “While many teams prefer their pitchers big, tall and projectable, sometimes they come in different sizes. The success of starters like Sonny Gray in the big leagues will undoubtedly give teams more confidence to take a closer look at Jefferies.”

• Logic would dictate that the Dodgers will select the best player available with the first round selection and all successive picks. They have a draft bonus pool of $9,273,900 which is not insignificant but still must be managed in a judicious manner. The slot value of their first pick (20) is $2,315,800 while the two compensation picks (32 and 36) have a slot value of $1,940,700 and $1,791,000 respectively.

While it’s certainly possible to simply take the best players on the board and sign them for close to the slot value, the Dodgers are among the organizations that will have some elbow room with the bonus pool to pursue creative combinations of players. It also means that they must have a relatively good idea if the best players available that they are pursuing early will sign.

The best player still on the board with their twentieth selection might be a Jordan Sheffield, a right-handed pitcher out of Vanderbilt. Perhaps Dakota Hudson out of Mississippi State, also a right-handed pitcher, is still available when the Dodgers make their first pick.

Jordan Sheffield
(Photo credit – Shelley Mays)

In any event, buckle up and enjoy the ride beginning on June 9th.