When free agent right-hander Jordan Zimmermann signed with the Detroit Tigers this past Monday, we reported here on ThinkBlueLA that it would undoubtedly opened the flood gates for teams pursuing the remaining top three starting pitchers on this year’s free agent market. It also officially started the clock for the Dodgers if they were to have any hope of re-signing their 2015 Cy Young runner-up or risk losing him to the (gulp) San Francisco Giants, who appear to be the only other team willing to spend the kind of money that it will take to land the 32-year-old Orlando, FL native.
Things heated up even more late Tuesday morning when prized left-hander David Price – who many pegged to go for slightly less than what Greinke is expected to make – signed a record-setting seven-year / $217 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, thereby topping the previous record of seven years / $215 million set by Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in January 2014. Price’s new contract carries an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $31 million as compared to Kershaw’s AAV of $30 million. In other words, Zack Greinke is going to get PAID.
At age 32, many baseball experts did not expect Greinke to get a seven-year deal, as did the 29-year-old Zimmermann and 30-year-old Price. But all of that changed on Tuesday morning with the Price signing. You can now absolutely bet the farm that Greinke will receive a contract with a higher AAV than Price and it probably will be for seven years (or at least a six with a huge option for a seventh).
Because of the (generally) good working relationship between the Dodgers and Greinke’s (and Kershaw’s) agent Casey Close, the Dodgers might still hold a slight edge over the Giants to land Greinke. However, should the Giants top the rumored (but unconfirmed) six-year / $210 million deal reportedly offered by the Dodgers (and why wouldn’t they?), even that $35 million AAV Dodgers offer may fall short – at least in terms of years.
While speaking with reporters immediately following Tuesday’s Dave Roberts introductory press conference, Dodgers co-owner Magic Johnson had this to say:
Although this certainly sounds good and is exactly what Dodger fans want to hear, it may have actually hurt the Dodgers chances of re-signing Greinke. With the announcement of the David Price deal, it leaves only Greinke and right-hander Johnny Cueto as the best two top-of-the-rotation free agent starting pitchers available this winter. And to be brutally honest, Johnny Cueto can’t hold a candle to Zack Greinke – not to mention Cueto’s questionable right elbow that probably won’t make it through a six or seven-year contract. As such, and should the Dodgers lose out on signing Greinke, the best they could hope for is settling for a substantially less and higher risk starter in Cueto while allowing Greinke to go to their fiercest division rivals.
What this all means is that with Tuesday’s David Price signing and Magic Johnson’s comments about making Greinke their number one priority, Magic may have very well upped that rumored six-year / $210 million ante for Zack Greinke, who will now probably insist on a seven-year deal and with an AAV higher than that of David Price.
The time for Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi to pull the trigger on Zack Greinke is right now – because if they do not and should another team land Johnny Cueto before Greinke signs (or re-signs), that ante will go up even higher.
Like I said – Zack Greinke is going to get PAID.
Let’s just hope that it’s the Dodgers doing the paying and not the Giants – especially on an even numbered year.
The signing of Zack Greinke may well determine what happens in the NL West in ’16.