It came as a surprise to no one that Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke opted out of his six-year / $147 million contract with the Dodgers on Wednesday morning, thereby walking away from a guaranteed $71 million still on the table over the next three seasons. And while it’s easy to say “Who in their right mind would let a guy like Zack Greinke go?” the simple truth is that the 32-year-old Orlando, FL native will absolutely positively double that amount over the next five to seven seasons and possibly even triple it.

Greinke, who is still the favorite to win the 2015 NL Cy Young award and who is coming off the best season of his 12-year MLB career, finished the 2015 campaign with 19 wins (tied for second most in the NL), three losses (fewest), 1.66 ERA (first), 0.844 WHIP (first), 225 ERA+ (first) and .864 winning percentage (first).

By opting out of his six-year / $147 million contract after only three years, Greinke immediately becomes the most sought-after free agent stating pitcher on the market. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

So why, then, would the Dodgers – the team with the deepest pockets in all of baseball – let the best pitcher of 2015 simply walk away? Although there are several answers to this question – none of which Dodgers fans will like – the two biggest are health and longevity.

Although it was kept under wraps from the media for his first two seasons as a Dodger, when pitchers and catchers reported for spring training this past February, it was reported that Greinke had received a “lubrication injection” for each of the past three springs – including 2015. And even though (then) Dodgers manager Don Mattingly downplayed the seriousness of the injections by saying that it was just something that Greinke did every spring, it certainly sends up a red flag for teams considering investing what will probably be somewhere in the $200 million range over the next five or six years.

As far as longevity, even though Greinke is coming off the best season of his career, he turned 32 years old on October 21, which will put him at 37 years old in five years and 38 years old in six. And although Greinke is coming off a phenomenal 32-start / 222.2-inning season this year, it’s inconceivable to think that even for a guy who has had no serious arm injuries during his outstanding career, he will be able to put up anything even remotely close to those numbers as a 37 or 38-year-old.

So what, then, do the Dodgers do if they elect not to offer Greinke the extremely large and extremely long contract extension that he will undoubtedly be seeking (and even more undoubtedly get)? The answer to that question is actually rather simple – at least in the eyes of Dodgers fans. The must, absolutely must pursue free agent left-hander David Price or free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto – both of whom will be 30 years old during the entire 2016 season. And while being two years younger than Zack Greinke may not seem like a big deal, Price and Cueto will both be 35 or 36 years old at the conclusion of a five or six-year contract as opposed to 37 or 38 years old as Greinke will be.

Another thing that perhaps overlooked by many Dodgers fans is that left-hander Hyun-jin Ryu is expected to be 100 percent healthy when pitchers and catchers report on or about February 17, 2016. If this is indeed the case, the Incheon, South Korea native – who will be 29 years old on March 25 – is expected to resume his role as the Dodgers number three starter. And then there’s right-hander Brandon McCarthy, who is expected to be ready sometime around the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery this past April.

Greinke made no bones about the fact that he signed with the Dodgers in December of 2012 because they offered him the most money. Will they do so again this off-season?
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

There is no argument that not having Zack Greinke behind Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw would/will be a huge blow to the Dodgers next season. But if it’s any consolation to Dodgers fans, there aren’t many teams out there that can afford the five or six year / $200 million-ish deal that Greinke will be seeking. But one of those teams is the Dodgers and Greinke has been rather outspoken about the fact that he loves playing in LA.

…then again, back in December 11, 2012 when he signed with the Dodgers, he said that he did so only because they offered him more money than anyone else.

Oh, by the way, Clayton Kershaw has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2018 season as well.

…just sayin’.