The annual First Year Player Draft is always a highlight of the season for me. I particularly enjoy the speculation that surrounds the draft and the mock drafts that suddenly appear as the actual draft day approaches. The first few selections are usually quite predictable although the exact order is not always quite as easy to forecast. Because the Dodgers usually are slotted in the mid-to-late twenties for their first selection, predicting the actual choice becomes more of a hunch based on supposed drafting style rather than one of any certainty.

The 2015 version is the inaugural Dodger draft for President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, General Manager Farhan Zaidi and their scouting and development staffs. That alone adds to more uncertainty regarding how the Dodgers might proceed in this year’s draft. Friedman in a 2009 interview with Baseball Prospectus revealed his preference for players he labeled as “fungible.” Those players might not be the strongest on paper but are the most versatile on the field capable of playing multiple positions. The conjecture would be that if he needed a second baseman – for instance – he may choose a player who has second base as part of his resume or has the versatility to convert to second base. Kike Hernandez is a prime example of a “fungible” type player.

Another factor in the draft selection for the Dodgers will be the ensuing international signing period to follow. Speculation is rampant that the Dodgers will be diving into the deep end of the pool in the international market because of the opportunity to sign players that other teams may not be able to afford and to close the gap in international signings left by the McCourt era.

The various mock drafts have included a number of players as plausible Dodger targets in the first round. Right-handers Kyle Colby, Ashe Russell, Cody Ponce and left-handers Kolby Allard, Tyler Jay and Justin Hooper have been named as possible Dodger draftees. Outfielder/First Baseman DJ Stewart was cited as a possible Dodger selection in one mock draft as was catcher Chris Betts and shortstop Richie Martin.

It seems most of the betting money, if there was a lottery, would be on the Dodgers selecting Brady Aiken with their 24th overall pick.

Brady Aiken
(Four Seam Images/AP photo)

Baseball fans will recall that Aiken was the first overall pick in the 2014 First Year Player Draft by the Houston Astros but he did not sign with the Astros. It marked only the third time that the first overall pick has not come to terms with the team that selected him. The last number one overall pick not to sign was former Dodger pitcher Tim Belcher in 1983 when the Minnesota Twins failed to ink a contract with him. Prior to that, first baseman Danny Goodwin did not sign with the Chicago White Sox in 1971.

The understanding seems to be that the Astros in 2014 were not satisfied with the results of Aiken’s physical, which revealed his ulnar collateral ligament in his left arm is smaller than usual. As a result they offered him a contract reduced by $1.5 million. After lengthy negotiations he and his family refused the offer.

In the spring of 2015 Aiken decided to pitch for the postgraduate team at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida. In his very first outing he felt something unusual in his pitching arm and left the game after only 13 pitches. He had suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament and in late March had Tommy John surgery. He will not pitch again until some point in the 2016 season.

In an outstanding season in his senior year with the Cathedral Catholic High Dons in San Diego, CA, Aiken thrust himself into the conversation for the first overall draft selection in 2014. He struck out 111 of the 228 batters he faced while walking only 15 and posting a 7-0 record with a 1.06 ERA in 59 .2 innings.

The 6’4″ – 210-pound left-hander improved his velocity on his fastball in that senior year from 92 to 97 mph. His breaking ball, already described as a solid curveball, also improved significantly to go along with a good change-up.

Why is there so much conjecture that the Dodgers will select Aiken? He may not even be available when the Dodgers approach the podium as he may be picked off by a team such as the Atlanta Braves. On the other hand, the Dodgers might just be the best fit for Aiken as they are not in need of immediate pitching help and can be patient with his development as an 18-year old. Additionally, they have the resources to pay a hefty signing bonus as demonstrated by their international signings.

If Aiken is still available with the 24th selection, perhaps Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi will see signing him as a low risk venture with a potentially very high upside. Maybe, just maybe, they will not be able to resist the temptation of acquiring this former first overall draft pick – especially since the Dodgers have never had a first overall draft pick. The closest they have ever come was in 1993 when they picked Darren Dreifort second overall after the Seattle Mariners selected some guy named Alex Rodriguez as the number one overall pick.