December 2nd, 2014 at 6:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka Tonight at 9:00 p.m. (PT) arbitration-eligible MLB players must either be tendered or non-tendered a contract for the 2015 season. Basically what this means is that if a team wishes to keep an arbitration-eligible player, they must offer (tender) that player a contract or not offer (non-tender) them a contract.
If the player is tendered a contract, they have the right to challenge the amount offered by filing for arbitration on January 13, 2015 (which nearly all arbitration-eligible players do unless they have already agreed to the tendered contract offered). Three days later (January 16) the player (through their agent) and the team exchange arbitration figures. If the player accepts the offer, they sign a contract for that amount, if they do not, a date is set for an arbitration hearing which will occur between February 1 and February 21, 2015.
If an arbitration hearing occurs (and they are rare), the arbitrator determines the amount of the contract (somewhere between the two offers) based on the salaries of comparable players and the team and player must accept this amount and cannot challenge it. History has shown that team owners generally come out ahead in arbitration hearings, but not always.
Should the team non-tender an arbitration-eligible player, that player then becomes a non-tendered free agent and can sign with any other team with their arbitration eligibility still intact. Players that are not arbitration-eligible are generally paid the MLB minimum – but don’t feel too sorry for them – the MLB minimum jumps to $507,500 in 2015.
The Dodgers have seven arbitration-eligible players who they must either tender or non-tender contracts to by tonight’s deadline: Darwin Barney, Drew Butera, A.J. Ellis, Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen, Juan Nicasio and Justin Turner. It’s pretty much a no-brainer that the Dodgers will tender contracts to Gordon, Jansen, Nicasio and Turner, but it is quite possible that they will non-tender contracts to Barney, Butera and A.J. Ellis. In other words, the Dodgers could very well be without a primary and a back-up catcher at 9 p.m. tonight.
Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis struck out 21.5% of the time in 2014
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
And what does 2014 NL Cy Young award and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw have to say about the fact that his favorite catcher and best friend might not be returning next season?
“I don’t know what I’m going to do if he’s not back,” said Kershaw.
There is nobody who would be more disappointed to see A.J. Ellis non-tendered than his best friend Clayton Kershaw. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
The painful truth is that Ellis had a horrible season on both sides of the ball in 2014. Even though his excellent .995 fielding would have ranked third best in the National League had he met the 108-game minimum requirement, his caught stealing ratio was a dismal .25%, which was ranked 29th in the league. Additionally, his two passed balls had him ranked 23rd. And while wild pitches are charged to pitchers, many of the 32 wild pitches that Ellis let get by could have or even should have been blocked.
But it is Ellis’s offensive power failure that could be his undoing as a Dodger. Ellis had a horrendous triple-slash of .191 / .323 / .254 for a weak OPS of .577 in 2014. He hit only three home runs and drove in only 25 runs. And even though he drew 53 walks on the season (fourth most on the team), he struck out 57 times and looked at way too many perfect first and second pitch strikes right over the middle of the plate.
To his credit Ellis had an outstanding postseason, albeit only four games worth. In his 13 at-bats in the Dodgers short-lived 2014 NLDS, Ellis had seven hits for a team-high .538 batting average with a home run and four RBIs. Unfortunately, it was a matter of too little, too late for the popular 33-year-old backstop.
Ellis was red hot during the 2014 NLDS hitting a team-high .538 with a home run.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)
It’s impossible to argue that the knee surgery that A.J. underwent in early April and the severely sprained ankle that he suffered in late May didn’t have a direct impact of his less-than-stellar 2014 season. But is it worth the risk of taking a flyer on him hoping that he comes back strong in 2015? And come back to what, his career .242 batting average and his career 33% CS ratio? Is this worth tendering him a contract that will probably run somewhere in the $4 to $5 million range? Keep in mind that Ellis was tendered and accepted a $3.55 million contract from the Dodgers in 2014. In all honesty, if he were to agree to a similar contract for next season, the Dodgers would probably agree to keep him, but is this something that the extremely intelligent Cape Girardeau, Missouri native would be willing to do?
All of this being said and what may end up keeping Ellis in Dodger Blue in 2015 is the fact that the team currently doesn’t have many good catching prospects in the high minors – certainly none who are MLB-ready, at least not yet. However, if Ellis is non-tendered and if 25-year-old catching prospect Chris O’Brien has an exceptional spring training, “OB” (as he is called by his teammates) could find himself on the Dodgers opening day roster as a back-up to Tim Federowicz, who will not be arbitration eligible until 2017. Now granted, O’Brien making the opening day roster is a long-shot at best, but stranger things have happened – especially when it comes to catchers. OB has another thing going for him – he’s a switch-hitter, of which the Dodgers have exactly zero of on their current 40-man roster.
Switch-hitting catching prospect Chris O’Brien hit .266 with seven home runs and 53 RBIs at Double-A Chattanooga in 2014. (Photo credit – Tim Evearitt)
It is well worth mentioning that the Dodgers do have 24-year-old Kyle Farmer, 24-year-old Tyler Ogle (both of whom played at Advanced Single-A Rancho Cucamonga in 2014), 22-year-old Spencer Navin (who played at Low-A Great Lakes) and soon-to-be 19-year-old Julian Leon (who played at Rookie League Ogden) down on the farm, and all of these guys appear to have major league potential – but are all at least two (or more) years away from being MLB-ready. As such, Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman is more likely to look at the free agent market or the trading block for a full-time catcher if Ellis is non-tendered.
Is A.J. Ellis worth tendering a $4 to $5 million contract to? Perhaps. But I’m not convinced that Andrew Friedman is convinced to do so.
Posted in 
RT @Think_BlueLA: New: Has A.J. Ellis played his last game as a Dodger? – http://t.co/LpoqHDmHnb #Dodgers
I, for one, would hate to see him in any color but Dodger Blue. Concerned what effect it would have on Kershaw if he is not the catcher and that should matter.
As Harold has said many times, A.J. is a true team leader. He is also great with the media and always gives a great interview.
But the bottom line is winning and A.J.’s defensive wins above replacement (dWAR) is 0.5 – which ranked 14th in the NL (ironically, he tied with Drew Butera).
His WAR (offensive) was 0.0 – which ranked 28th in the league. By comparison, Jonathan Lucroy’s WAR was 6.7 and Russell Martin’s 5.5.
It’s great being a good guy and a good clubhouse leader and all, but if you can’t put up decent MLB numbers, you got to go.
It certainly appeared that A.J. found his stroke late in the season (it was pretty cool watching his two HR game at Wrigley) and he was able to carry his hot hitting into the all-to-brief postseason, so it is still possible that the Dodgers will tender him. They can also non-tender him and and re-sign him to a lesser amount, but here again, is he willing to do this?
We’ll know the answer to that in a few hours.
Wow great article 53, and I’ve never been so at a loss for words.
ICYMI – Has A.J. Ellis played his last game as a Dodger? – http://t.co/dM4wJBAZ9a http://t.co/Kd1zjGLGSs
@Think_BlueLA Nah
@DustinNosler @Think_BlueLA I highly doubt it. And even when he is done I’d bet $$ they try and keep him in the organization as a coach
The answer to the question is, “No, A.J. has not played his last game as a Dodger.”
I must admit I find it difficult to be totally, well even remotely objective, as A. J. is my favorite Dodger. He is a throw back – well groomed, uniform neat, respects players, teammates, fans, media, plays hard, prepares well with the pitchers and knows how to smile.
I know baseball is a business but even in the business sphere there is place for the A.J. ‘s of the world. I personally have never gotten caught up in the WAR statistics as I think they too are subjective. A.J. had a down year following two injuries and Dodger fans want him to walk the plank. Look what happened with Uribe after two expensive disastrous years. Brandon League and Brian Wilson are still on board.
I loved Steve Yeager. I wonder if Dodger fans remember how important he was to the team with a bat that didn’t equal A.J.’s. He only topped A.J. with CS % – 38 % to 33%. Steve was frequently injured. A.J.’s caught stealing percentage in 2013 was 44%, the best in MLB. A career .242 BA isn’t great unless you are Steve Yeager who came in at .228. MLB fans might not realize that only seven catcher in MLB had a batting average higher than .242 in 2014, one of them being Dioneer Navarro. Would indeed be nice if A.J. came back to that.
A.J. finished the year strongly in the post season. It would not have been too little too late if even one of his $20M teammates had performed in the same manner.
A.J. is the least of the Dodgers problems in my opinion, if he in fact is a problem. The outfield mess, the shortstop mess, the bull pen mess and the need for a starting pitcher certainly top any need at catching.
He may not be tendered but he will be signed before arbitration and yes he will sign for $3.55M or whatever the amount is that is reasonable. I say that because I believe A. J. would feel he has not earned a raise.