March 17th, 2013 at 8:16 am 
by Ron Cervenka Dodger manager Don Mattingly is about to make a huge decision – one that will have a direct effect on the Dodgers opening day roster. And guess what? It doesn’t involve spring training sensation Yasiel Puig.
Oh sure, the decision whether or not Puig will be on the opening day roster is a major one, but Carl Crawford has all but made that decision for Mattingly – he (Crawford) will most likely be the starting left fielder on April 1, and I admire the hard work that Carl has put in over the past week to make that happen. Of course Mattingly will be extremely cautious with Crawford and will undoubtedly pull him relatively early in one-sided games and give him an extra day or two off each week during the first six weeks of the season, but I would be shocked if Crawford is not in left field on opening day.
Crawford will make his spring training debut as the DH in Sunday’s game against the Brewers at Camelback Ranch. (Photo credit – Luis Sinco)
No, Mattingly’s toughest decision no longer involves Puig, it involves his starting rotation and who his fifth start will be, and it all hinges on Zack Greinke.
Without question, Clayton is 100% game-ready as the Dodgers’ ace and opening day starter. His 6-inning performance on Saturday clearly showed that he is in (and I hate this cliché) “mid-season form.” Clayton’s 6-inning / 2-hit performance against the Texas Rangers on Saturday made the eventual 4-0 Dodger loss completely meaningless. Had it been a real game, Clayton very well could have gone the full nine innings, this in spite of the fact that it is so early in the season. Kershaw had thrown only 70 pitches when removed from the game with the score tied 0-0.
There is absolutely zero doubt that Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw is ready for his opening day start. (Photo credit – Juan Ocampo)
And though his elbow will be a concern every time he steps on the mound this season, my guess is that Chad Billingsley will begin the season as the Dodgers’ number two starter, this in spite of having to deal with a slight groin strain. In his two outings prior to his minor setback, Bills had pitched 5.2 innings allowing 4 earned runs on 7 hits with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts, while giving up one home run. And though all of this equates to an unattractive 7.04 ERA, Chad looked impressive in a 5-inning B-game assignment earlier this week and it appears that he will be good to go on April 2.
My pick for the third spot in the rotation goes to Josh Beckett, who is having a better spring than any other Dodger starter in camp. Beckett, who reported for camp in excellent condition, has allowed only one earned run in his 9.1 innings of work for a remarkable 0.96 ERA. He has given up only 4 hits while walking 3 and striking out 11. That one earned run was the result of a solo home run given up in his last outing on March 12. Because Beckett has done extremely well this spring, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Mattingly were to put Beckett ahead of Billingsley in the starting rotation when the season opens. Whoda thunk it?
With tutoring like this, how can Dodger fans not be optimistic about Josh Beckett this season.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
The number four spot gets a little more iffy and will undoubtedly come down to the final two weeks of spring training. Although he hasn’t lived up to the hype, Hyun-jin Ryu will probably get the nod. Through 10.2 spring training innings thus far, Ryu has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits for a 5.91 ERA. He has walked 4 and struck out 12, while giving up one home run. While many are down on Ryu for his apparent lackadaisical work ethic and his reluctance to listen to his coaches, I believe that he will eventually adjust to the vast differences in pitching in Korea and pitching in the MLB. One big advantage that Ryu has over any other Dodger starter is that he has never been seen by most MLB hitters, but this will only carry him so far into the season – especially against teams in the NL West.
This is where things get dicey for Mattingly and boils down to whether or not Zack Greinke will start the 2013 season in the starting rotation or on the DL with his inflamed elbow. One huge advantage for the Dodgers (and more so for Greinke) is that a fifth starter will not be needed until April 13, almost a full two weeks into the season – this because of scheduled days off. In his limited spring training work, Greinke has allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings for a 3.60 ERA. He has given up 6 hits, one walk and struck out 3, while allowing one home run. Greinke’s role as the Dodgers number five starter (instead of a top-of-the-rotation spot) is predicated on his questionable health, not his effectiveness.
But what if Greinke isn’t ready by April 13?
Herein lays Mattingly’s dilemma – a dilemma that, quite frankly, is entirely unnecessary. You have Aaron Harang and his horrible 10.00 ERA (10 earned runs in 9 innings pitched); Chris Capuano with his even worse 10.61 ERA (11 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched) and his team-leading 4 home runs allowed; and the oft hurt (or sick) Ted Lilly, who has pitched exactly 4.2 innings this spring and given up 2 earned runs (one a home run) for a misleading 3.86 ERA.
And then there’s Stephen Fife, who has not only answered the bell when called upon, but has done so in such a way that it would be a crime for him not to be in the starting rotation should Greinke be unavailable. Fife has been nothing short of outstanding this spring. He has allowed 4 earned runs in his 9.2 spring training innings of work for a 3.72 ERA, has given up 8 hits, walked 2 and struck out 9, allowing only one home run. I simply do not know what else this kid can do to convince Mattingly (and Ned Colletti) that he is a viable MLB starting pitcher. Granted, he is a back of the rotation guy (for now, at least), but he is a far better option than Harang, Capuano or Lilly. In fact, there isn’t (or at least shouldn’t be) any comparison – Fife is way better than any of those guys, not to mention a much younger 26 years old.
When will Mattingly finally realize that Stephen Fife is a far better option than Harang, Capuano or Lilly? (Photo credit – Juan Ocampo)
The bottom line here is that Don Mattingly is making a very simple decision far more difficult than it needs to be. In the event that Zack Greinke is forced to start the season on the DL, a rotation of Kershaw, Billingsley, Beckett, Ryu and Fife will work – and probably very well.
Will Don Mattingly make the wrong decision?
I certainly hope not.
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Mattingly and Colletti give far more weight to “Major League Experience” than we do. Therefore, I suspect that Fife will have to wait for the others to prove they can’t do the job before he gets his chance. I would hope that Honeycutt and Howell would have input that leads to the decision. If they do we might be happier with the outcome!
And how many losses will that take, losses that can never be recovered? And when they occur, we will have to listen to all of that “it’s still early” bullshit. As I’ve said countless times, losses in April and May are just as important as losses in August and September, and so, too, are wins.
You would think that Mattingly and Colletti would put winning ahead of egos. That’s what championship teams do. One need look no further than the hated Giants to see this when they stuck Lincecum in the bullpen – and look how that worked out for them.
Colletti has proven time and again that he tries to justify his horrible signings by trying to force these high-priced failures into doing well – even if it takes the team out of contention. I had hoped (and still do) that Stan Kasten and the rest of GBM were (are) smarter than this, and perhaps they are.
Unfortunately, with as bad as Harang and Capuano have been this spring, they have pretty much lost all of their trade appeal, which means that the Dodgers will get very little in return for them – if anything at all. Man, I miss Kuroda.
You said it all.
I wasn’t suggesting that I like their thinking, quite the opposite. But, old habits die hard.
I never took it that way, my friend; just frustrated with that losing mentally.
I know what I’d do. But hey… it’s not my money. Whatever helps you sleep at night, Ned.
Will they make the wrong decision? My guess is yes. Experience is over-rated unless all other things are equal. In this case all things aren’t equal other than experience.
Maybe Fife takes his knocks if he is cast in the role of fifth starter but that is what getting experience is all about. He is young compared to the other three and seems to have been injury free during his career. His ST results have been far better than Lilly, Harang or Capuano. The kicker is that Harang makes $7M this year while Capuano makes $6M and Lilly $12M.
It has become difficult to trade them because of a poor ST showing and a big contract. I’m guessing the team does not eat all of those contracts which means Fife goes to AAA again. I know money isn’t supposed to make any difference with the team now but it does or will. As pointed out, Ned may well hang on to these guys praying for a miracle to validate his decision in initially signing them to more than one year.
Speaking of veterans, how ’bout that Ted Lilly?!!!
Check out tomorrow’s blog article. 😉
My money is Grienke spend the first 3 weeks on the DL, Harang and Capuano both get traded, Lilly goes to the pen and Fife is our #5