March 15th, 2013 at 6:20 am 
by Ron Cervenka We all know that no one can predict the future, at least not with any degree of certainty. But being able to collect and evaluate available data and then making an intelligent, informed and educated guess (i.e. a hypothesis) is what separates a good scientist from a brilliant scientist. The same can be said for general managers in professional baseball, although their intelligent, informed and educated guesses are based more on speculation and stats (i.e. Sabermetrics) than actual hypothesis.
In the 130-year history of the Dodgers, the franchise has had some outstanding general managers and, of course, some not so good. Among the very best were Hall of Famers Larry MacPhail and Branch Rickey, and Al Campanis and Dan Evans. Some might even argue that current Dodger GM Ned Colletti is doing a pretty good job – something that couldn’t be said of him prior to May 1, 2012.
But even the most brilliant scientists are not always 100% correct with every hypothesis, nor are even the best general managers always 100% correct in their assessment of baseball talent; in fact, many times they aren’t even close.
Drafting and trading players and signing free agents is anything but an exact science. (Photo courtesy of ESPN Illustrations)
Without question, the acquisitions that the Dodgers have made over the past year are due entirely to the extremely deep pockets of the Guggenheim Baseball Management group. They have allowed Colletti to rise from the ashes of the McCourt era like a phoenix and surround himself with some of the most brilliant player development and scouting minds in the business. As a result, Colletti’s speculations have transcended into huge expectations of Mark Walter, Stan Kasten, Earvin “Magic” Johnson, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly – the aforementioned GBM group. And make no mistake about it, should Colletti’s acquisitions and Don Mattingly’s management of them fall short of GBM’s expectations, one or both of their jobs will be on the line.
One of Colletti’s biggest signings was that of 22-year-old Cuban outfielder Yasiel Puig. Talk about speculation, Puig was basically signed sight unseen having been banned from playing for unsuccessfully attempting to defect a year earlier. He eventually managed to defect and was quickly signed by Colletti once he made it to the U.S. for seven years and $42 million. He was also immediately placed on the Dodgers 40-man roster as a completely untested prospect.
Although Puig was a bit rough around the edges from having not played baseball for over a year, he soon found his stride again in the Dodgers Rookie League and in the California League (Advance Single-A). He was invited to his first major league spring training camp this spring and quickly became the buzz of camp.
In his 17 spring training appearances thus far, Puig is batting .412 (14 for 34) with 8 runs, 3 doubles, one home run and 6 RBIs. He has a .400 OBP and a .588 SLG for a phenomenal .988 OPS. In most cases, numbers like these, even for a 22-year-old untested prospect, would probably land him on just about any teams opening day roster – except the Dodgers’. Why? Because another of Colletti’s speculation signings is blocking Puig’s path to the majors – Carl Crawford, who was acquired as part of the Dodgers blockbuster trade with the Red Sox in order to get their real target, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
Crawford is certainly no slouch; in fact, as former MLB manager Kevin Kennedy said immediately following the trade: “Carl Crawford isn’t just a good signing, he is a great signing.” The only drawback is that Crawford underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm only days before the blockbuster trade, thus he is still recovering from his surgery and played in his first spring training game (a minor league game) on Thursday morning.
Yesterday’s blog post entitled Raw is Good created an interesting debate regarding what might happen when Puig is deemed 100% MLB ready? In other words, who stays and who goes?
It’s a pretty safe bet that Matt Kemp isn’t going anywhere anytime soon as he enters the second year of his six-year/$180 million contract (through 2019). Face it – he is the franchise player… for now. But with a guy like Puig, who very well may be in the same category as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper and who is under contract for seven years (through 2018); and with what he has shown in his first-ever major league spring training camp, it is hard to imagine (impossible, in fact) to think that the Dodgers would even entertain a passing thought of trading a guy who, quite frankly, might be even better than Matt Kemp.
This, of course, raises that speculation thing: Will Puig replace 31-year-old Carl Crawford (under contract through 2017) or 30-year-old Andre Ethier (under contract through 2017 with an option for 2018)?
In order for Puig to become an everyday outfielder for the Dodgers, one of these guys will have to go.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo & Luis Sinco)
When you look closely at both Ethier’s and Crawford’s career stats, you will see that they are actually quite similar. Granted Ethier has a better 162 Game Average (which is not always a great stat to rely on) in home runs, RBIs and OBP, Crawford tops him in batting average (only slightly), runs, hits, doubles, triples (by a lot), and stolen bases (WAY more). On the other side of the ball Ethier has a career .986 FPCT in his 7 big league seasons and has earned one Gold Glove and two All-Star Game appearances, compared to Crawford’s career .990 FPCT in 11 big league seasons earning four Gold Gloves and four All-Star Game appearance, including the 2009 ASG MVP. Crawford also owns four AL Stolen Base titles.
Click to enlarge
(Source – BaseballReference.com)
There is yet another issue with this whole outfield speculation thing (well two, actually) – what do the Dodgers do with 26-year-old Alex Castellanos, who currently leads the Dodgers with three home runs this spring, and even more so with 20-year-old Joc Pederson, who is among the top ranked outfield prospects in the entire country? My opinion (for what it’s worth) is that Castellanos will remain as the Dodgers 4th outfielder and Pederson will become a blue chip trading piece.
With Thursday’s announcement by Mattingly that Yasiel Puig will begin the 2013 season in the minor leagues, it appears that either Jerry Hairston Jr., Skip Schumaker or Castellanos (or a platoon of all three) will be joining Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier as the Dodgers opening day and every day left fielder until Carl Crawford is healthy enough to join the team – this in spite of the fact that Yasiel Puig is hitting better than all of these guys.
So that’s the easy decision for Ned Colletti and Don Mattingly.
The real dilemma comes on opening day 2014 when Puig will undoubtedly be MLB ready and a decision will have to be made on who stays and who goes.
Posted in 
You wrote this for me??? I feel special…
The only thing missing is the poll; Which player will the Dodgers ultimately retain: Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier?
As for the rest, can I just cop out (no pun intended!) on my response? Even better… “I’ll just wait and see what happens. These things tend to work out sooner or later.”
You are special, Kevin, but the article has been on my back burner for a few days and I was waiting see where the whole Puig situation was going before completing it. It also goes into more detail (stat wise) than what was discussed in the comments to yesterday’s post.
As you know all too well (and undoubted why you mentioned it), I don’t do well with that WJHTWAS” mentality. I understand that there is nothing that any of us as fans can do to change anything, but I simply cannot put my mind in neutral over this stuff. (It’s that collecting and evaluating available data and then making an intelligent, informed and educated guess thing).
BTW – I made some revisions to the initial post after you submitted your comment, so, if you are so inclined, give it another look. As frequently happens, additional thoughts come to mind after I have already hit the submit button.
Interesting side note: for today’s split squad game, Puig has been separated from Kemp, Ethier and Castellanos, who will travel to Peoria to face the Padres; while Puig remains at CBR vs. the Royals.
I’ve got a feeling that Yasiel will be sent to MiLB camp within a week.
P.S. Nice edit to the crystal ball guy…
Couldn’t leave the Yankee logo on it. 😉
I still think it would be a good poll question.
There’s an old proverb; you can’t have your cake and eat it too. We like having promising, young players players develop into major league ready talent, yet we enjoy the proven veterans who have gotten the job done. Too bad there isn’t an everyday, fourth outfield spot to be had… but if there were, I suppose it wouldn’t be called hardball then, would it?
The perfect storm; 1) Puig tears it up in the minors. 2) Carl Crawford returns to form and is 100% healthy. 3) Andre Ethier gives equal treatment to both right and left-handers alike. Outcome = Difficult decision. Any of these situations not coming to fruition = Easier decision.
As Don Mattingly said, “Puig will let us know when he’s ready.” Until then, it’s all speculation anyway. After all, Puig could end up being a 42 million dollar bust… but I seriously doubt it. One thing’s for certain; whichever way we slice this dilemma, eventually the Dodgers will have to eat a significant portion of someone’s contract. And that, in and of itself, may determine who stays and who leaves.
I agree with just about everything you say Kevin, except for the money being the deciding factor. If GBM have shown us anything it has nothing to do with money and everything to do with winning. IMO I still think the plan is to have Puig play every day at AA or AAA and depending on the injuries, our spot in the standings and the trade deadline, we could see him in July. And god forbid if this team is not cutting it by the trade deadline heads will roll !!
The Stats not addressed in this post are the Ethier splits against lefties. I’ve argued it before and it’s getting to the point that I am annoying people BUT that never stopped me before.
Ethier can’t hit lefties. Never has, never will,(.238 lifetime avg., .296 OBP, .649 OPS). His stats against right handed pitching are fantastic, (.311 BA, .387 OBP, .913 OPS).
Platoon Puig with Ethier in right field and we have a perfect outfield in place. Puig will get enough at bats as he can spell Crawford from time to time in LF.
The problem will be the sulking Ethier, but it’s time to stop babying his attitude. The numbers speak for themselves.
Gotta pick your poison.
Andre against lefties: .238 BA, .296 OBP, .648 OPS
Carl against lefties: .263 BA, .309 OBP, .688 OPS
Andre against righties: .311 BA, .387 OBP, .913 OPS
Carl against rigties: .305 BA, .342 OBP, .810 OPS
Andre’s total: .290 BA, .362 OBP, .838 OPS
Carl’s total: .292 BA, .332 OBP, .747 OPS
Carl has not been a man among men. He was still whining about Boston in February as if the Red Sox were the cause of his disastrous two seasons in Boston.
Attitudes aside, who is the better guy for the Dodgers? If Andre picks up somewhat against lefties, in 2014 when Puig comes aboard, Crawford becomes redundant and the Dodgers eat a big chunk of his salary. Four huge contracts in that outfield.The best option – both guys as hot as pistols so the return for either would be good.
Ron is right – Joc Pederson is now trade bait. For Joc and the team I hope he lights it up in 2013.
The outfield conundrum, self imposed, means that future drafts for a while will again focus on pitching and infielders. (C, 2B,3B) I have been reading about how big Corey Seager is. Apparently he is as big as Puig. He is our third baseman down the road as long as he doesn’t pull an Andy LaRoche when the time comes. Seager 6’4″ – 205 lb. Puig 6’3″ – 215 lb. Seager is still 18.
Not a good time to be a young outfielder in the Dodger system, other than Puig.
Well put Ron, so this leads me to believe that something has to go wrong with either Ethier, Kemp or Crawford or maybe even infielders Cruz (if Puig can play 3B) or Gonzalez (most outfielders can convert to 1B) in order to make room for Puig.
That said, that’s why I’d rather be someone who just watches to see what happens than to predict the future.
You have never missed the point of an article more so than you have with this one, OBF. Read the first paragraph again (or have someone read it to you). It’s not about predicting the future, it’s about making “…intelligent, informed and educated guesses based… on speculation and stats (i.e. Sabermetrics)…”
If you were to spend maybe 15 to 30 minutes each day reading (and perhaps even comprehending) the latest Dodger news instead of posting comments on things that you know little or nothing about, you may learn something about the Dodgers; but then again, maybe not.
There have been countless article written about Yasiel Puig, so there really is no excuse not to know that he is a pure outfielder, just as Kemp, Ethier and Crawford are. He absolutely cannot and will not ever play 3B and I do not see the Dodgers ever even trying him out at 1B – at least not anytime soon, that’s for sure.
In case you missed it, the Dodgers currently have one of the best first basemen in the game. He was acquired in the blockbuster trade with the Red Sox, which was mentioned in both yesterday’s and this article.
And I have no idea where you came up with this:
I said nothing of the sort – I never even inferred it.
The point of the article is that the Dodgers have four guys with very lengthy (and expensive) contracts for three positions, so somebody will have to go. That’s it. That’s the point of this entire article and subsequent discussion.
Again, if you had been paying even a little attention to what’s going on with the Dodgers, the team that you claim to have been following closely since 1947, you would realize that the Dodgers not only have one of the very best first basemen in the game today (a 4-time All-Star and 3-time Gold Glover with an incredible .294 career batting average and 213 career home runs), but also have a potential power-hitting 3B prospect in Corey Seager. Seager was the Dodgers’ number one draft pick this past June. You do know this, right?
Please, please, please do not feel obligated to comment on every blog or forum article OBF – especially those that you haven’t a clue about; because it shows.
OBF – there is no way that Puig is going to be at 3B or 1B regardless of what happens with Cruz and A-Gon. He is an outfielder with all the outfield tools.He is still in the learning stage and a position change to the infield would definitely not be in his or the team’s best interests.
I think as Ron mentioned he will soon be assigned to the minor league side to work on skills. It is soon time to go with the regularly expected roster to get ready for opening day. Tryouts are soon over. I wouldn’t be surprised to still see Puig come in late in ST games to get a few more AB’s.
He will start at AA I expect to work on baseball acumen to improve his decision making (judgement plays) and to gain confidence. I am absolutely hoping he destroys AA pitching.
OBF – we all wait to see what will happen. We have to as we are not GM’s or managers. Speculating on what might happen is fun, although the chances of being right are not too great, because that makes us armchair GM’s and managers and connects us to the team in another way.
Guess I was a little premature with the obligatory “I’ll just wait and see what happens…”
Joe never fails us with that.
OBF; the day you offer a knowledgeable opinion regarding the Dodgers will be a joyous day. I suppose it will have made your last 66 years following the team well worth the wait. We may even be astounded.
Carry on, Sir…
I think for the time being they should just platoon Ethier and Crawford with Castle and Puig. that makes to much sense though so they never do it.
I can see Castellanos being a platoon player, but not Puig. As Gary mentioned, I believe that Yasiel needs to play everyday.
Castellanos would be a great 4th OF for the Dodgers. In fact, he would be an everyday OF on many teams.
If Ethier continues to struggle against lefties (and why would that suddenly change now after 7 years in the Bigs), Castle would be a great RF platoon for him, but as you said, that would make too much sense.