December 31st, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 Trevor Bauer is a lightning-rod for divergent and frequently passionate opinions, and the court of public opinion can be relentless in its judgment with or without knowledge of all relevant facts. While there is nothing wrong with having strong feelings pro or con, the purpose of this piece is to attempt an objective examination of the team’s ‘Catch-22.’
While the Bauer reinstatement to MLB, and possibly the Dodgers roster, is not a classic ‘Catch-22,’ it does communicate the immediate dilemma that team owners and executives must address: complete the 2023 roster retooling, staying below the 2023 Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold ($233M), and rationalize the $22.5M Bauer payroll conundrum.
(Ron Cervenka)
Although the team has not publicly stated its intention to remain below the CBT threshold, management’s actions certainly lead baseball analysts and fans to conclude that it is an organizational goal to reset CBT penalties by restricting payroll below the threshold. Yet, General Manager Brandon Gomes recently said that the front office is looking at numerous ways to upgrade the roster:
“We’re diving into a bunch of different avenues. Whether it’s adding another starting pitcher or different bat options. It’s more about how they all fit together and seeing what is available and balancing different aspects with that,” Gomes said.
With Bauer’s return to the Dodgers at his arbitration-reduced $22.5M salary, Fangraphs projects the team’s 2023 CBT payroll (which includes benefits) at $232,899,125 — roughly $101,000 below the tax threshold. That makes for a very shallow pool for Gomes to dive into for roster upgrades.
There are scenarios whereby the Dodgers could reduce the payroll impact of Bauer’s return, but it seems inevitable that the team will pay him the full amount, whether or not he plays for the team. The roster consequences are obvious. If the Dodgers acquire another player(s) they must either divest rostered players of equal or greater average annual value (AAV), or they will exceed the CBT threshold.
A hypothetical trade that would add Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds ($6.75M AAV) to the Dodgers roster provides a good example. In order to remain below the CBT threshold the Dodgers would be forced to trade players (not necessarily to the Pirates) like Daniel Hudson ($6.5M AAV) and Trayce Thompson (projected $1.7M AAV) in addition to the prospects the Pirates would accept for Reynolds.
Should the Dodgers want more payroll flexibility now, and at the 2023 trade deadline, they could trade a higher-salaried player like Chris Taylor ($15M AAV), or Max Muncy ($13.5M) for much lower-salaried veterans and/or non-rostered prospects.
The New York Yankees are rumored to be searching for a left fielder. Trading Taylor and reliever Phil Bickford (~$1M AAV) for second baseman Gleyber Torres (~$9.8M) would also provide enough salary room to acquire Reynolds from the Pirates.
Trading Muncy appears to be a last resort, but would return a significant group of young players/prospects. The Tampa Bay Rays are reportedly searching for a left-hand power hitter for first base, and they have a deep and talented group of prospects, including shortstops and pitchers.
What will the Dodgers do in the upcoming week and beyond? Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman is an innovative executive.
He will find a way.
* * * * * *
Posted in 
Excellent analysis, Jesse. It is so very difficult to remove the emotion from the Bauer situation and look at the Dodgers ‘Catch-22’ enigma objectively. You have help me do so significantly.
Jesse
Trading CT3 would mean you would need a back up shortstop. This is the weakest position in the organization. Lux and CT3 are the only guys on the roster that can play SS.
They should stop worrying about the CBt, add some help go at 240. All the talk about getting under the CBT to make run at Ohtani is nonsense. The new Angels owner could pay him a ton and crazy Cohen could offer him 55 a yr for 10 yrs.
Meanwhile we need to sign Urias and hopefully a healthy Walker Buehler as CK moves towards retirement.
Good point about Taylor being backup at shortstop – another example of Catch-22. If the Dodgers acquired Gleyber Torres for Taylor he would become the starter at 2b and backup SS. Cannot remember if I mentioned the following in earlier comment: I think Jacob Amaya may be ready — according to scouting reports, he is a terrific fielding SS with excellent hands and arm, plus a high baseball IQ. And, one of the players I would like to see the Dodgers acquire is Joey Wendle who combines good (not great) offense with excellent defense at SS, 2b, and 3b. If the Dodgers acquire Reynolds then they could afford to play a glove first SS. I am all for Dodgers resetting the CBT penalties, but not necessarily for Ohtani. As you mentioned, Buehler and Urias need to be re-signed, as well as Will Smith sooner than later. I think the Dodgers will go hard after third baseman Devers (Bosox) when he becomes a free agent after 2023, or Matt Chapman. And, there are terrific young pitchers who will be free agents after 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Good job Jesse. Excellent assessment. I hope the Dodgers keep Bauer, let him pitch and continue to work on a trade for him. Trade Taylor and Muncy, sign Jose Iglesias and leave Lux at 2nd base.
I think trading Bauer is the Dodgers best option, and teams like Phillies, Cubs, Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals may be interested (don’t see Dodgers trading him to the Giants or Padres). According to Cot’s baseball contracts, from Opening Day through the All-Star Game, Bauer must approve any trade to an AL club. He might approve a trade to AL but Dodgers will have to pay him $$$$ for his approval. I think Houston, Texas, and Boston would be interested.
As I have mentioned before, I have never been a fan of Bauer, but if the Dodgers players are on-board with him on the team then I’m good with him returning.
Hey, the Dodger players don’t have to sleep with him.
Think I will let that pass without comment — ALOL!
Ohio
Thanks for clarifying the Bauer situation the other day.
It would be crazy to trade Muncy. Healthy which I believe he is Muncy is as good a power hitter as there is. I would not trade him. If we trade Muncy having already lost Trea Turner our run production could be way down. Additionally at 13 million Muncy is a steal.
If CT3 goes in a package for Torres I wouldn’t have an issue with it.
I agree, it is very unlikely that Muncy is traded — perhaps a last resort — but that is one possible solution with the reinstatement of Bauer. After CT3’s 2022 offensive performance (35% K rate and 93 wRC+), teams may not be interested in taking on the remaining 3 years, $41M of his guaranteed salary.
Glad to help Steve. Taylor is certainly the first choice to be traded.
The Bauer issue is not about emotion. When you look at the list of violent perversions that Bauer has admitted to, any aspect of the Dodgers being a family entertainment destination go out the window if he stays. Especially when you can’t bring your kids every fifth day. He should never again stain a Dodgers uniform. He’s got to go.
I appreciate your well written view — thanks