July 21st, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 Let’s get to it – no beating around the bush!
The Dodgers need another starting pitcher. Not a marginal, innings-eater for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation, a legit, top-of-rotation guy. A pitcher who can be counted upon in the postseason to shut down the best hitters on the planet as the Dodgers pursue the 2022 World Championship.
So, let’s play (If) The Price is Right.
The best starting pitcher known to be available for trade is Luis Castillo, the 29-year-old ace of the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo is a legit, top-of-rotation starter with four-seam and two-seam fastballs (97 mph), slider, and change up. His $7.3 million salary is comparatively inexpensive, and he remains under team control through the 2023 season. A highly desirable starting pitcher for any Major League team. Reportedly, the Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles (that isn’t a typo), Twins, and Yankees have varying levels of interest in the Reds pitcher.
The Reds have every reason to expect/demand a huge return in players and prospects for their star pitcher. While the Dodgers have a deep and talented farm system, it is well known that they will not overspend for any player; they stick with their evaluations, willing to walk away from a deal if the acquisition cost is beyond their evaluation.
Which players might the Dodgers be willing to trade for Castillo? The team’s top two prospects, catcher Diego Cartaya, and right-handed pitcher Bobby Miller are most likely off the table in trade discussions, along with the team’s two best hitting prospects: Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas. But the Dodgers could still assemble an enticing group of players built around their no. 4 prospect – outfielder Andy Pages, no. 7 – pitcher Ryan Pepiot, no. 9 – infielder Jorbit Vivas, and Major League pitcher Mitchell White.
Would the Reds trade Castillo for that group of players? We can only guess, but the Dodgers have other options, beginning with the Reds’ right-handed starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, who may be an overall better option for Dodgers. A year younger than Castillo, less salary ($5.2 million), and also team controlled through 2023.
Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman is a shrewd negotiator, and his reported interest in Castillo may be a diversionary tactic, with Mahle being his real target.
Mahle is not as dominating as Castillo … yet. Put him on the Dodgers with their ability to get the absolute best from pitchers and he could turn into a special pitcher, similar in production to Tony Gonsolin or Tyler Anderson. Pitching in Dodger stadium as his home field in place of the Reds’ extremely-hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park should immediately improve Mahle’s statistics. His ERA is an inflated 4.48, and he has recently been on the IL with right (pitching shoulder) discomfort. But his peripheral pitching stats are strong (3.55 FIP), and the shoulder MRI revealed only irritation, no structural damage.
Who would the Dodgers send to the Reds for Mahle? Replace Pepiot from the Castillo package with right-handed pitching prospect (no. 17) Carlos Duran and Mahle could become a Dodger before the trade deadline.
Other less detailed options for the Dodgers:
The Oakland A’s right-handed starter Frankie Montas (also team controlled through 2023). But he has been on the IL since early June with pitching-shoulder inflammation, and the Dodgers don’t need another injured pitcher. Dodgers might be willing to risk Montas if the A’s would take Mitchell White and Michael Grove in return.
The Miami Marlins could be a trade partner with the Dodgers that could result in an old-fashioned block buster deal. The Marlins are loaded with young, talented starting pitchers, but are searching for offense to be 2022 postseason participants.
Marlins right-handed starting pitcher Pablo Lopez would be a tremendous add for the Dodgers, but do the Dodgers have the immediate return that would motivate the Marlins to make a deal? To acquire Lopez the Dodgers would likely be forced to include their most advanced right-handed hitting prospect Miguel Vargas (no. 5) in the return package, along with Pages, Edwin Rios, and young catching prospect Jesus Galiz (no. 25).
Perhaps a more likely scenario for Marlins – Dodgers trade would be Fish left-hander Trevor Rogers who has struggled to a 5.42 ERA in 2022. Rogers is extremely talented, but the Marlins might be open to trading him if the return is Miguel Vargas and Andy Pages.
There are other options for the Dodgers, but if the price isn’t right, look for the team to go forth with their current starters, continuing to use Ryan Pepiot, while waiting for Walker Buehler, Danny Duffy, and Dustin May to return from the IL. This may be the best option for the team going forward.
What do you think Dodgers fans? Are there other starting pitchers the team should pursue to reach their goal of 2022 World Champions?
Next, we’ll look at the bullpen.
* * * * * *
Posted in 
Dodgers might be able to get Castillo or Mahle for less prospects if they eat a bad contract. Moustakas comes mind.
Great point, although the remainder of Moustakas $16M in 2022 and $18M in 2023 may be more than Dodgers are willing to take on.
Friedman is in a great position right now – he can make a trade if he wants to, but he doesn’t have to. He has quite a few options down on the farm.
Spot on! I do believe Friedman will find another starter. One option that I didn’t mention, a trade with the Angels for Syndergaard. Not sure Moreno wants to trade with Dodgers, or vice versa, but the Dodgers could send Michael Grove, Andre Jackson, and non-roster pitcher John Rooney down the 5 Freeway in return for Thor.
Interesting thought – one that I never had.
Syndergaard could fit in nicely in the Dodgers clubhouse … as long as egos don’t get in the way.
Ron, i think there are some crazy ideas in here; White AND Grove for Montas? aside from his whooping by StL, White’s been great. that 7+ inn relief appearance last year, the no hitter thru 5 last night, this kid would be in most rotations. Thor is producing very similar stats for 30 times the money.(literately) i dont believe they have any room for payroll, which is apparently why we lost KJ while trying to move AJ. adding Moustakas makes little to no sense. his production is slightly worse than Belli’s without the defensive caveat, and he’s signed through next year. adding a healthy May, even in a limited roll will be a huge boost. if WB and/or Heaney get back we’ll have an embarrassment of riches costing us nothing but some spots on the 40. not to mention Treinen at the back end. i dont think Duffy will ever contribute, but i’d like to be wrong.
i’d be more interested in a RH like Happ if CT’s foot is going to be a nagging injury and they continue to refuse to use Mckinstry.
sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.
Some good debate topics.
White and Grove for Montas. I like White — Grove not so much. White may one day be as good as Montas is right now (IF healthy). According to Fangraphs, Montas fastball and slider are righted significantly better pitches than White, and pitching for an inferior team Montas already has a 2 WAR in 2022 compared to White’s .5. Third time through the lineup this season, opponents slash .428/.526/.688 against White — Montas .204/.240/.337.
With Bauer’s suspension, Dodgers tax bill is much less than originally projected, but fair point that taking on the prorated portion of Thor’s salary (~ $7M for last two months of season) is a consideration. But, Thor is throwing well and if he moves into a rotation competing for a WS the competitive spirit will kick into overdrive (my opinion). If Dodgers only have to give up three minor league pitchers who have little hope of pitching for Dodgers, then trading for Syndergaard makes sense (to me).
I agree 1000% about Moustakas.
Duffy is definitely a question mark considering he isn’t even scheduled for rehab assignment. Reports that he has been throwing regularly since May — but huge difference between throwing and pitching competitively.
I would love to see Happ on the Dodgers.
White battled last time out. a couple of flares followed by a couple of productive outs (something the Dodgers don’t seem to understand) got him off to a rocky start but he gathered himself and added five scoreless innings to his resume.
i’m not a stock pile guy. if players are blocked or top out in the minors, trade them. i have been comfortable trading the catchers we have over the last few years as its been a position of depth. pitching is that today as it was when montas, cottton and holmes were traded for hill. let’s not forget that the only production from those three has a PEDS suspension.
the players you offer for thor are reasonable but who do you bump from the rotation now that heaney is back (today anyway) and May is due back in another week or so? two all stars with a combined 21-2 don’t seem to be moving out. i think that goose has shown throughout his short career, that he’s much better as a starter than a reliever. (prep time perhaps?) Kersh and julio aren’t going anywhere. i just dont see the need.