February 4th, 2020 at 9:00 am 
by 0799291000348 The original title of this piece was, ‘Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts.’ After all, baseball fans have read or heard that a trade “was close to being finalized” and “a deal was imminent.” Sure, the San Diego Padres were (are) still lurking on the perimeter hoping to put the Boston Red Sox right fielder on their 2020 roster, but if the Dodgers truly want Betts, they have the wherewithal in money, players, and prospects to get a deal done.
Unfortunately, the pursuit of Betts has become a never-ending story akin to their quests for Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, who signed with the New York Yankees and Anaheim Angels respectively.
Arguably, the 27-year old Betts is one of the five best players in Major League Baseball and is exactly the type of player that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman had in mind when he said that the team would pursue elite players for the 2020 roster.
There is no doubt that Betts is worthy of a significant return to the Red Sox from any acquiring team, except that he will be a free agent after the 2020 season. The Dodgers and Padres must assume, for trade purposes, that Betts is a one-year rental. Fans can hope that their team would sign Betts to an extension prior to the 2020 offseason, but this is more of a wish than a hope.
There are a couple of complicating factors making a trade for Mookie Betts a daunting process. The Red Sox obviously want the very best return in players and prospects, they want to convince their fans that they will compete for 2020 postseason play, and have the goal to reduce their 2020 player payroll average annual value (AAV) by more than $28 million to get below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $208M. They also have three highly paid/under-performing players in left-hander David Price ($31 million AAV), right-hander (and former Dodger) Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million AAV), and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11 million AAV). Ideally, Boston would include one of these players along with Betts to another team.
According to a recent supposition (rumors), the Dodgers are willing to include extremely popular outfielder Alex Verdugo, highly regarded catching prospect Keibert Ruiz and left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson for Betts. That is a very good offer for a one-year rental, who could re-sign with Boston after the 2020 season, or another team like the Padres, Giants, Cardinals, et al.
So what’s the hold-up? It is not unreasonable to assume that Boston wants the Dodgers to also take one of Price or Eovaldi or Bradley Jr. for that same package of players, which is likely a deal-breaker. Or, Boston wants right-handers Tony Gonsolin or Josiah Gray in place of Ferguson if the trade is for Betts only.
There are several options that the Dodgers and Red Sox could pursue to consummate a trade. One is for the Dodgers to take David Price in return for AJ Pollock ($12 million AAV) and Kiké Hernandez ($5.9 million), which effectively reduces Price’s AAV to $13 million in 2020 and $19 million in each of the following 2021 and 2022 seasons. The Dodgers then flip Price to a team which is desperate for starting pitching (Angels? Royals? Orioles?), either paying a small portion of the remaining salary or including a prospect like right-handed pitcher Michael Grove in the deal. Taking on Price’s contract would be a huge win for Boston, but the cost would probably be the exclusion of Alex Verdugo from the trade. He could be replaced by a couple of players like first baseman/outfielder Edwin Rios and top outfield prospect DJ Peters or infielder Jeter Downs (or other prospects), which would most likely remove Alex Verdugo under that scenario.
Perhaps the trade will actually happen before you read this. Putting Betts in the Dodgers lineup in 2020 would be awesome regardless of how the trade is constructed.
‘In Friedman We Trust’
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Great stuff, Jesse. Thanks!
Verdugo, Ruiz and Ferguson would be a HUGE haul for Betts, a one-year rental.
Add in taking on Price’s three year anchor contract seems like betting it all on one blackjack hand. The consensus is Dodgers will easily win the division, but we need Betts to get us over the hump in the playoffs. Betts has a career .227 BA, .313 OBP, .341 SLG, and .654 OPS in 88 playoff ABs. He better be RED HOT in the 2020 playoffs or this would be a major fail.
We’d be giving up major financial flexibility and a huge trade package and still wouldn’t have that 2nd ACE or addressed the coming hole at 3rd base.
If we do send Pollock and Hernandez to Boston to reduce the financial hit, combined with sending Verdugo in the trade, we are suddenly not very deep in the outfield. When Pederson leaves after 2020 with Betts the cupboard is going to be pretty bare.
Totally agree, I find it hard to believe that supposition is correct — no matter how good Betts is, for one year that group of players is too much for what is likely a one year rental. Your point regarding future outfield depth if Verdugo is traded is one others should closely consider. Dodger 2021 OF without Pederson, Betts, Verdugo, and Hernandez would go to Bellinger, Pollock, Taylor, Beaty, Rios, and perhaps DJ Peters — OUCH! Should the Dodgers take on a contract like Price there is no way that Verdugo would be included in the deal – Boston would have to decide if it wants the player more than the significant reduction in payroll.
Jesse and Ron, my take here and unless I we hear otherwise concerning this Betts saga, he will begin the year remaining in Boston and quite frankly, as SoCalBum suggested on another page, Dodgers and Cubs should get together in a deal for kris Bryant instead. And we can get to and win a possible WS without expecting Bryant to win a gold glove at 3rd. he fits Freidman and Robert’s desire for versatility, as Bryant can also play LF as I understand it. What do ya think?
exactly right. this would be ridiculous if the names listed go.
i would trade joc and pollock for betts and price. that would solve boston’s payroll problems and clear space on the roster in LA.
if they want prospects, i would want them to pay more of price’s $. as noted above, the dodgers can then flip price to reduce the financial impact or even swing a 3 team trade where someone else sends boston prospects for price and the dodgers throw in some of the cash. if its a chicago trade, joc for kris reduces the cubs payroll and flips a LHH for RHH in LA.
there are plenty of prospects to trade from this system but the top line guys should not be in the mix for a rental. rios, beaty, wong,..would names i’d consider.
Betts in Dodger Blue is an extremely exciting idea. I find Peter Gammons rumor hard to swallow though. Verdugo, Downs and Ferguson. I think Verdugo is likely to improve if healthy, and Ferguson could be a monster in the bullpen if he is coached up exclusively as a reliever. That’s a lot of controllable talent (not to mention Downs who hit like crazy as a middle infielder). Trading Ruiz after a “down” year is suspect as well. Will Smith could be the catcher of the future, but having another guy in AAA is part of the depth model that has become the MO of Friedman and company. I guess I’m a prospect hugger!
If bellinger is going to play CF, Lf in 21 could be Beatty/Pollock if Joc P leaves. So losing Verdugo for a shot at Betts and a real shot at winning it all might be worth it.