April 9th, 2019 at 9:00 am 
by Ron Cervenka There is a saying in baseball that is as old as the 150-year game itself: “I’d like to buy a baseball player for what he’s worth and sell him for what he thinks he’s worth.”
By all appearances, beleaguered 30-year-old Dodgers right-hander Joe Kelly is not worth the $25 million that he will be paid over the next three seasons, with a club option (or $4 million buyout) for a fourth. In fact, with his current team-worst 1-2 record and team-high 13.50 earned run average, Kelly isn’t even worth the current MLB minimum salary of $555,000 … or “Isn’t worth a bag of balls,” as disgruntled baseball fans often say.
Here is the contract that the Anaheim, California native and St. Louis Cardinals 2009 third-round draft pick (out of UC Riverside) signed with the Dodgers on December 21, 2018 after he flat out cleaned their clocks during the 2018 World Series while a member to the World Champion Boston Red Sox:
Although Kelly’s contract pales in comparison to the 10-year / $300 million contract recently sighed by former Dodgers shortstop Manny Machado, the 13-year / $330 million contract recently signed by outfielder Bryce Harper, or the (well-deserved) 12-year / $426.5 million contract extension recently signed by future first-ballot Hall of Famer Mike Trout, it is still a ridiculous amount of money for a guy with a career ERA of 3.96 over eight major league seasons who maybe pitches an inning or two every two or three days.
(Photo credit – Jayne Kamin-Oncea)
As we all know, Dodger fans can be a brutal lot, especially on social media. In fact, after Kelly turned a 3-2 Dodgers lead into an eventual 4-3 loss to the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals on Monday evening, Twitter absolutely exploded with people demanding that Kelly be designated for assignment … or worse (this is a family website).
Obviously 11 games into the 2019 season is way too soon to pass judgement on Kelly, or anyone else for that matter. However, you would think that having appeared in five of those 11 games thus far that Kelly would have at least one decent outing.
He has not.
In fact, of those five outings consisting of a combined 6.0 innings pitched, there is only one in which Kelly did not allow at least one earned run, and that was because he exited that game after only one-third of an inning after taking a line drive off his glove that (apparently) forced it into his pitching hand.
All of this said and because of that 3-year / $25 million thing, don’t expect Joe Kelly to go anywhere anytime soon.
…unless, of course, it is to the Injured List for a ‘mystery injury.’
Stay tuned…
* * * * *
Posted in 
It’s Mystery Time.
Maybe by August, He’ll get things figured out.
Wonder if Kimbrel has been contacted yet
I’m not on-board the Kimbrel train … yet. There are just too many excellent options already in the Dodgers system; guys like Tony Gonsolin or even 22-year-old Ryan Mosely, who is currently tearing it up at Rancho Cucamonga.
IMO, Kimbrel would be Joe Kelly 2.0.
Just wondering if anyone has ever attempted to spin a baseball effectively at an altitude of over 5000 feet one day, then turn around and repeat that muscle memory at 466 feet the next day?
Joe didn’t look comfortable in his most recent outing. I personally think he will be just fine going forward. He sure put it all together in the post-season.
I would imagine most every pitcher who’s ever played at Coors Field.
Impossible to know for sure what is going on with Kelly, but I would not be surprised if it has more to do with pitch calling than Kelly’s ability. Stats from Fangraphs and BrooksBaseball note some interesting differences in how Dodgers want Kelly to pitch in comparison to his previous experience. For example: Kelly has used the change-up 26% of his pitches this season; more than double his career average of 11%; he has basically abandoned the slider which he used around 15% of the time in his last four seasons; breaking pitches over the previous two seasons were used ~ 34% of the time, this season only 17% of his pitches are breaking balls.
Nice info, thanks for sharing.
I would argue this one with you, Bum. My take is that he has lost his once outstanding fastball command and is using his change up (and breaking ball) more in an attempted to compensate. That being said, I imagine that Barnes and Martin are indeed calling for fewer fastballs because of this.
Just my $.02.
Was his fastball command that terrible during the post season?
Just wondering if you’re saying he has lost it, or he hasn’t fully recaptured it yet this season is all.
I know I don’t comment here all that much. I’m just trying to dissect what y’all have said in order to make it fit. Plus, I have fallen asleep a few times early this year and have missed a bit of Joe’s work. Most of what I’ve seen hasn’t looked all that bad, what did look bad to me, was when he spun the ball into the dirt and then he again spun the ball into dirt, only the 3 feet wide of his target as well. Both came at Coors Field. He then hopped on a plane that transported him back down to near sea level and had that days pre-game workout to get reacquainted with something he had zero confidence in just hours before.
As far as why the changes, could be that you are both correct. I seen the game-planner going over things with Barnes between innings, so my guess would be it’s mostly stat driven?
Anyhow, It’s raining cats and dogs in my neighborhood today, just thought I’d come see what was going on Dodger wise and also say hello to Joe P. Good to see you out and about OBF.
Go Dodgers!
So far he’s been pretty bad, 2 loses and 3 blown saves to go along with his win, but I think it’s a little too early to judge him yet.
He has yet to become successful, no argument there.
And his three blown saves accounted for all three Dodger losses.
Those words sound like a heart-broke Dylan song…
And his three blown saves accounted for all three Dodger losses. Wasteful April rains with the leaky water faucet..
Had my reservations about this winter signing from the get-go. Why pay a well-known Dodger killer like Kelly that much when there’s no more volatile position in all of baseball than the relief pitcher??? To me, this is still the same guy that broke Hanley’s ribs which pretty much kept the Dodgers from reaching the WS that 2013 year. Guess which team he was on when he did that, DEM CHEATIN’ REDBIRDS! Last night was just more of the same, except he did it in a Dodger uniform. Probably still thinks he bleeds Cardinal red, lol…
Seems to me they signed another well known Dodger killer that’s work out rather well so far.
Not a relief pitcher though.
Pollock’s an exception. I like him. Goldschmidt, too (Dodgers actually drafted him out of HS once upon a time, couldn’t free up enough slot money to lure him away from college though thanks to Mr. Parking Lot Frank McCourt-lol). Kelly’s different. He wasn’t meant to play for the very ballclub he did his best work against. Hunger’s not there for him anymore now that he finally has a WS ring under his belt with the Red Sox. This signing could end up having grave consequences for the Dodgers moving forward this season in terms of their chances of not only getting back to the WS for the third straight time in as many years, but actually winning it all upon getting there…
He wasn’t meant to play for the very ball-club he did his best work against.
I’m having a hard time understanding the reasoning behind this?
I just watched highlights of Kelly giving up not one, but two hits, on pitches that were maybe not great strikes, but they weren’t terribly thrown either. They were lower zone strikes that were plain and simple and simply got hit.
Correct if I’m wrong and if so, forgive me as well, but didn’t I just read that Ron had a chat with Kelly a few months ago and claimed he walked away with the impression Kelly was a fierce competitor?
It’s not that hard to understand what I meant. In my not-so-humble opinion, Kelly is probably the type of player that’s wired to do better against a certain ballclub than he would if he was on that very same ballclub instead. Personally speaking, I wasn’t too high on that signing in the first place because it’s usually not Friedman’s MO to hand out multi-year deals to FA relievers knowing how unpredictable that position can be from a performance standpoint. I thought they were better off using that money elsewhere or better yet, just sitting on it for the time being.
Hunger’s not there for him anymore now that he finally has a WS ring under his belt with the Red Sox.
After reading what Ron wrote a while back, which was after Kelly earned his cherished ring. I did find it difficult to understand how you came to the conclusion that he was no longer interested in winning another?
I’m not an expert on how ballplayers are wired, but I felt compelled to ask you?
I’m also not an money manager, so how it all fits into the future puzzle is something that I don’t divulge that far into.
3 million this season which will keep the team under the threshold of penalties and save the club money to use at a later date this season, seems like a good deal though. The 4 million dollar buyout seems a tad lofty.
Having said all this…I will add that I am very satisfied with the work that has come from this front-office. I also believe the team, patrons and city will see a parade at some point. This is just as good a time as any.
Even if you’re right on all counts, which I doubt, how are the Dodgers to know that until they try him?
At the least, they need to STOP putting him in game changing spots until he remembers how to throw strikes.
Enjoy the game folks!
Lets Go Dodgers, Lets Go!
You may have “just read that Ron had a chat with Kelly a few months ago and claimed he walked away with the impression Kelly was a fierce competitor,” but that was on January 7, nearly three months before Kelly made even one pitch in a Dodgers uniform. And my exact words were: “…he is as fierce of a competitor as anyone who has ever worn a Dodger uniform … and then some.”
But while I appreciate your attempt to praise Joe Kelly, for whatever your reasons, the cold, hard truth is that he has been absolutely horrible and his pitches have indeed been “terribly thrown,” with many of them bouncing two feet in front of the plate and several making it to the backstop … when they weren’t being hit out of the park or into the gaps, that is. He has given up nine runs on 12 hit – including two home runs – and has a team-worst 13.50 ERA in his 6.0 innings pitched thus far.
As my father often said: “You can paint a turd gold, but it’s still a turd.”
He needs to improve and I’m not saying any different. And like I said, I have missed some of his work. I’m just saying I have seen some good in what he has shown so far. And think it’s a bit early to jump on the not worth the money spent band wagon that folks are so eager to hop aboard.
You can find people who only look at the negative side of things anywhere. I try to see the good as well. If I’m wrong, I have no problem in saying so.
I still think Joe will prove all the naysayers wrong.
I’m not one to complain much. I find it highly unproductive as whole. It usually only serves the mind that is doing the complaining.
If I get a chance today, I will watch more of his work…to get a better understanding of what you profess.
I do hope you’re right. We could sure use the pitcher that owned the Dodgers last October.
I never claimed all of Kelly’s pitches were golden.
Opening Day Joe Kelly.
Served up a homer after failing to throw a 3rd strike with his fastball, curve and change-up. The fastball was a tad off of the plate, the curve and the change up, bit the dust respectively. The pitch hit for a homer was also a curve, that would have hit Martins mitt dead center. The second run scored on a fastball that drifted over the center of the plate. For the most part his fastball was the pitch he was able to command the most. He struggled to get any feel with the others.
Not as bad as it appears, plenty of room to improve.
Albeit he did allow two runners to cross home-plate.
Which makes the overall performance unacceptable, as folks have declared.
The second run is actually run #4. But the second series of run producing hits.
April 1st Joe Kelly
The very first pitch to Belt was spot on in the heart of Barnes mitt, you know had it not been belted over the wall for a run.
That inning he missed the strike zone 5 times, twice with his curve, twice with the change and once with the fastball which was with a high and away target that got away. He threw a large amount of strikes that inning with his fastball.
The next inning he surrendered a single to begin with that was hit on the end of the bat and again came against a fairly well executed pitch that was just off of the plate outside and up. He is pitching fairly well up to this point, but without results. He was able to get Parra out with good fastball command for out #1. He was able to use his fastball to get Panik out 3 pitches the first two solid strikes, the 3rd might have been a tad high on purpose? In any event Panik bit on it and hit the pitch back to Kelly. Now, he has showed a good amount of promise up to this point even while struggling with his off-speed stuff. Run #2 scored when Panda hit a well thrown curve…again it would have hit the heart of Barnes mitt. Dugger then moves Panda to 3B on a fastball that was maybe 2 inches off of Barnes mitt. He was then replaced and doesn’t pitch again until he is at Coors Field a place where most pitchers struggle with off-speed stuff. He came into Denver struggling with his off-speed stuff.
This is how I am able to THINK BLUE and say that his entire body of work, whether you paint it gold, green, or whatever isn’t all that horrible. Calling it a turd only represent the end result. Which from what I just witnessed was as much pitch calling as anything else, except maybe his wayward control with his off-speed stuff.
I heard an interview with Kelly where he was implicitly asked if he hit Hanley Ramirez on purpose. He said that he did, in a joking manner. But my sense is that he was telling the truth. Sometimes our lies betray us so why not tell a littler lie by pretending to lie when actually telling the truth. Looking at how voracious a pitcher he is when he competes against the Dodgers one gets the idea that he doesn’t like the Dodgers much but decided to take their money. Just an intuitive take.
Has anyone noticed how well the pitchers have been at getting bunts down successfully.
They have also been running more then in the past.
Well, I haven’t really noticed the pitchers running more, but have seen much more success in bunting.
Bob, please excuse me…I meant that the team, has been actively running more it seems.
I like the focus they have this year…they said they would work on bunting and it looks like they did.
A few players made it known on media sites how hard they were working to improve in many aspects…Kenley with his workout regime. Turner and a few others at Dodger Stadium this winter in the cage and the study room. Seager gave up pizza in order to get stronger…
These are things that even if they have done them in the past, they have a deeper focus on this season. I’m certain there are more, such as the clubhouse guy beating the team bus to the hotel, so the players can grab their stuff and reset faster.
Manuel made the comment that he hasn’t seen many changes this season…I would say different. On that note, Manuel does make a multitude of very informative comments…I’m enjoying them.
I kinda figured that, just inserting a bit of levity.
Don’t forget Kenley giving up ice cream.
But giving up pizza? Now I know they’re really sacrificing.
This is #40.
Bob, I think we can do better.
Let’s shoot for 50 before the All-Star break!
It is also comment #677669. That is the total since inception :0)
Now it’s 42 on this thread.
I assume you’ve seen my comment below.
Ron, are we getting close to the record for most responses yet? I think this is #37.