Longtime baseball fans know better than to draw conclusions from one game, or even a few weeks of games. Patience is not only a virtue but is essential, as players work through injuries and the inevitable slumps during a MLB season. But when a pattern of poor play continues for one-third of a season, there is a rational cause for concern, and continued patience becomes procrastination when obvious changes are not implemented.
There is no greater issue for the Dodgers at this time than the unreliable performance of 30-year-old Dodgers right-handed starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Statcast advanced pitching metrics confirm what Dodgers fans have witnessed in 2023 – that Thor, as he is affectionately known, is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB over the first third of the season.
The Dodgers signed the Mansfield, TX native and 2010 first-round draft pick by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Legacy High School in Mansfield to a $13 million contract (plus incentives for innings pitched) in December 2022, believing that their pitching coaches and consultants could fix his pitching mechanics, thereby returning him to a quality ML starting pitcher. After 10 starts, it appears that the team’s gamble was a poor decision. Thor has actually regressed from his 2022 performance (LA Angels and Philadelphia Phillies), including a 2-mph reduction in his average fastball velocity.
Currently, the team has five starters on the injured list: Walker Buehler, Michael Grove, Dustin May, Ryan Pepiot, and Julio Urías. While an argument can be made that Syndergaard is currently needed in the rotation to eat innings until another pitcher returns, moving Thor out of the rotation could be addition by subtraction for the team with 2023 World Series aspirations.
Who would take Thors’ place in the rotation for his next scheduled start on Wednesday, May 31?
The timing may be perfect for a bullpen game. The Dodgers could recall right-handers Andre Jackson and Michael Grove, or reach down to its outstanding Double-A pitching staff to bolster the relief staff against the struggling Washington Nationals. Thursday, June 1 is a scheduled off day, which would rest the bullpen. Fortunately for the Dodgers, their June schedule has six off days, including every Monday, and Urías should be ready to return in the next couple of weeks.
Another addition by subtraction is outfielder Trayce Thompson. The Dodgers ignored his career reverse splits (better offense against right-handed pitching) and expected him to platoon in the outfield against left-handed pitching. Thompson is currently hitting .054 (that is not a typo) when facing southpaws, striking out in 51% of his plate appearances. After hitting three home runs on opening day, Thompson has only 4 hits in 61 at bats and has not had a base hit since April 17.
Thompson has been miscast by the Dodgers. He needs a fresh start with a team who will use him in a role that capitalizes on his strengths. The Dodgers must replace him with an outfielder who can consistently provide quality offense against left-handed pitching.
Additions by subtractions are difficult management roster decisions, but necessary actions for the Dodgers to improve the roster in pursuit of a World Championship in 2023.
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Two obvious candidates to be replaced. And I believe they will be at some point. Just a matter of when.
Barnes is another candidate for addition by subtraction. How long can they keep him?
Fair question about Barnes. His framing stats have steadily declined and are now only average, his arm strength has always been suspect, and now his offense is negative 10 (wRC+). But I don’t see an alternative at this time. The Dodgers do not seem interested in their Triple-A catchers and Double-A need further seasoning. Other teams are in the same predicament — not enough good catchers to go around.
Perhaps the team decides to carry a third catcher so they can pinch hit for Barnes, but that doesn’t help control the running game of other teams. The Dodgers pitchers must do a better job of holding runners closer to bases to give their catchers a chance. Or, perhaps MLB comes to its senses and rethinks the rule about the number of pick-off attempts a pitcher may make.