Perhaps there are some Dodgers fans who were more in tune with the team’s plans at shortstop for the 2023 season, but for most, the team’s trade for Miguel Rojas (34 years old next month) for 24-year-old middle infield prospect Jacob Amaya came as a bit of a shock. Dodgers fans have grown accustomed over the last decade to having Hanley Ramirez, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, or Trea Turner as their regular shortstop. For the team to acquire Rojas seems more like a desperation, last alternative than a strategy.

The last time the team needed a veteran to plug-in at the position was 2015 when they acquired a then 36-year-old Jimmy Rollins from the Philadelphia Phillies for pitching prospects Tom Windle and Zach Eflin. In 2008 they traded outfield prospect Juan Rivera (not of Angels fame) to the Kansas City Royals for 30-year-old Angel Berroa, who was then playing in Triple-A. Both Rollins and Berroa were major disappointments. Although Rojas is a superb fielder, his acquisition is reminiscent of the Rollins and Berroa acquisitions – not a difference maker.

There is still ample time for Dodgers General Manager Brandon Gomes to strengthen the roster in other areas. Several of the Dodgers major acquisitions were completed shortly before the start of Spring Training (Chase Utley in 2018; AJ Pollock in 2019; Mookie Betts and David Price in 2020; Trea Turner, Alex Vesia, Trevor Bauer, and Blake Treinen in 2021). However, with the Rojas acquisition on Thursday, the Dodgers are technically* over the 2023 CBT threshold by approximately $4.2M (Rojas $5M AAV less Amaya’s rookie salary $720K).

The sense is that the Dodgers (i.e., Gomes and President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman) are not finished retooling the roster, and will find a way to add more offensive firepower through the acquisition of an established outfielder, preferably for center field. However, the team will need to create 2023 payroll wiggle room to add the right player(s) and still reset the CBT penalties.

Trading larger contracts is an obvious way to reduce payroll, but there are other means available to the Dodgers. One simple step is to guarantee the team options for Chris Taylor ($12M – 2026) and Max Muncy ($10M – 2024). Taking that action alone would reduce the team’s 2023 CBT payroll by $3.15M.

Walker Buehler‘s contract is another (though more complicated) method to reduce the payroll. He is projected to receive $8.1M in arbitration for 2023, but that amount could be substantially reduced by innovative contract structuring with Buehler’s agents (fortunately, not Scott Boras):

• Buehler could be signed to a split contract – Major League portion for anytime on the active roster (unlikely), and a Minor League portion for the period of his rehabilitation. Buehler has two minor league options remaining, so there isn’t an issue with a split contract. Dodgers payroll could be reduced by ~ $8M. There is a significant downside to Buehler under that scenario, he would fail to earn a year of ML service time, thereby delaying his free agency until after the 2025 season.
• Or, his salary could remain the same as 2022 ($4.25M) and earn a full year of ML service by agreeing to a new contract that would not begin until 2024 (possibly include a 2025 option with vesting provisions). Under that scenario the Dodgers would reduce payroll by ~ $4M and Buehler would be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season.

For Hot Stove discussions, those moves collectively could free up between $7M and $11M of payroll. While that amount may seem relatively insignificant in today’s exorbitant MLB market place, it would provide the Dodgers with enough payroll wiggle room to sign or trade for other players and remain below the 2023 CBT threshold.

Bottom line: the Rojas acquisition is just one move in the Dodgers annual roster chess game. While we fans tend to judge each acquisition as a stand alone transaction, Andrew Friedman is a Grand Master, looking at the entire board (roster) to win the game, not a single move.

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*(Actual CBT payroll is not determined until after the completion of each Major League season).

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