January 17th, 2023 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 When the Dodgers traded middle infield prospect Jacob Amaya to the Miami Marlins for 34-year-old veteran Miguel Rojas, the team figuratively slapped a five-million-dollar Band-Aid on the shortstop position for 2023. Like a medical dressing that protects an injury as it heals, Rojas is a temporary measure, as the team searches for a regular shortstop who will settle the position for the remainder of this decade.
Who will be the long term replacement at shortstop for the Dodgers?
Gavin Lux has the five-tool talent and baseball IQ every baseball talent evaluator salivates over when looking for a Major League shortstop. But the 25-year-old Kenosha, WI native has yet to live up to the lofty expectations that followed him after he was crowned Baseball America‘s Minor League Player of the Year in 2019. While Dodgers executives continue to talk-up Lux as their heir apparent shortstop, their actions are more convincing than their words.
When the Dodgers knew that All Star shortstop Corey Seager would likely leave via free agency after the 2021 season, they made a mid-season trade with the Washington Nationals to acquire Trea Turner (along with pitcher Max Scherzer). Turner had another year (2022) of team control, becoming a one-season bridge to the team’s heir apparent – Gavin Lux.
When Turner used free agency to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies, Dansby Swanson became a Chicago Cub, Xander Bogaerts sold his skills to the San Diego Padres, and Carlos Correa signed with the San Francisco Giants New York Mets Minnesota Twins, surely the Dodgers would commit to Lux as their shortstop, right?
Nope.
They equivocated, attempting to be supportive without committing; spinning the narrative to apparently show confidence in Lux … then traded for Rojas.
(Orlando Ramirez)
What are the Dodgers plans for their future at shortstop?
Lux could surprise, finally achieving his plus-plus offensive potential to the point the team is willing to accept his erratic defense.
The other internal options are underwhelming: 32-year-old Chris Taylor, and 22-year-old prospect Eddys Leonard. Taylor could be another emergency Band-Aid, but not a long term answer. Leonard is talented, but has not yet played above High-A. That’s it. Other shortstops in the Dodgers pipeline are at least three years away from setting foot on the infield dirt at Dodger Stadium, and each comes with significant questions about their offense or defense.
Barring a break-out season by Lux and/or Leonard in 2023, the Dodgers will look for a long term solution outside of the organization, whether through free agency, or trade.
Free Agency
While the 2023-24 free agent class of shortstops does not have the same level of talent as the 2022-23 group (Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner), Amed Rosario (Cleveland Guardians) will likely be on the Dodgers watch list. Rosario is an above average defender, with the skills to become a plus defender, and his offense is ML average (career slash line of .274/.308/.404). Rosario will be 28 years old in the 2024 season, still in his prime physical years, and will be the best available shortstop in free agency.
Willy Adames (Milwaukee Brewers) will be the prize shortstop in the 2024-25 free agent class. He is a plus defender, a career slash line of .255/.322/.448, with large run-producing power (63 doubles and 56 home runs 2021-22). Should he duplicate those numbers in the 2023-24 seasons, he and his agent will be expecting contract offers in the same range as Bogaerts, Turner, or Correa.
Trades
Theoretically, the Dodgers have the time and resources to trade for a young, proven shortstop before the start of 2023 Spring Training. The most likely trade target is Adames. The Brewers have said they want to sign the talented shortstop to a long term contract, but Adames’ pay expectations may now be greater than what the team is willing to pay, leaving the door open for a Dodgers trade.
The Rojas trade actually makes it easier for the Dodgers to include Lux in the package of players going to Milwaukee. Lux would become the Brewers regular second baseman, with 23-year-old Brewers ready-now shortstop prospect Brice Turang replacing Adames. The Dodgers would likely include a couple of pitchers in the deal, considering the Brewers have four starting pitchers scheduled to be free agents after the 2024 season (Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and Brandon Woodruff).
But, will the Dodgers part with a robust package of players and prospects to obtain the All Star shortstop who could leave via free agency after two seasons? That may be the $250M question. Unless the team is ready to sign Adames to a long, lucrative contract after the trade, then they may go to another option for their future shortstop.
The next four weeks will be very interesting for Dodgers fans, and of course there is the July 31, 2023 trade deadline to consider.
Anyone else looking forward to actual baseball games to replace the Hot Stove season?
* * * * * *
Posted in 
A very timely and thought-provoking piece, Jesse. Thank you.
I sincerely hope that I am wrong and will GLADLY admit it if I indeed am, but I see the Dodgers as finishing third in the NL West in 2023 … at least at this point in time.
Although we will never know all of the facts or what went on behind closed doors, letting Trea Turner get away was, in my humble (and worthless) opinion, among the worst decisions that Andrew Friedman has made in his (thus far) eight full seasons as the Dodgers President of Baseball Operations.
That being said, there is no bigger Andrew Friedman fan on the planet that I, and I simply cannot believe that he is finished ‘wheeling and dealing’ this off-season.
Fire away.
Yes, great post Jesse.
AF never had a chance to resign Trea. He was going East. His and his wifes families are all there.
Bauer is by far the worst decision of AF’s career.
Spot on! (see my comments below)
Yordan Alvarez was a pretty bad move too. It’s easy to look good when you have a large payroll. This winter hasn’t been good but I understand it. They are lucky his #2 in SF blew their off-season as well. SD’s division to lose.
Oh yes, Alvarez turned out to be a poor trade. Not quite to the level of trading Pedro Martinez, but not far behind.
Thanks Ron.
Regarding Trea Turner, in my opinion he spoke the truth at the time of his trade from Washington to LA when he said that he wanted to play on the East Coast and have Spring Training in Florida. When he later said that he would like to remain with the Dodgers was from his agent to drive up his free agent value in dollars and years — Turner knew all along that he was not going to be a Dodger past 2022 — completely out of Friedman’s control. As far as the other free agent shortstops, each had warts that Friedman and/or his staff did want relative to the money and years involved. From what I read, Dansby Swanson may have been the one free agent SS the Dodgers had significant interest, but some in the organization believed that he has already peaked and not worth the big $ investment.
I think it was the length of the contracts for the top shortstops that drove AF away. They all got over paid. Either in money or years or both. I am happy AF didn’t tie us up with one of those 10-12 year deals.
Agreed. It seems that some teams never learn that the excessively long contracts will become an albatross sooner than later
Lol 3rd. Which one of the DBacks, Giants or Rockies are better than the Dodgers? Something would have to go DRASTICALLY wrong for the Dodgers to finish 3rd. I do however expect them to finish 2nd with a decent shot at winning the division when the Padres inevitable chemistry issues arise. Tatis is not going to be happy playing the OF and he’s already a clubhouse cancer there. Too many big money egos in that clubhouse. They’ll be good, but not as good as everybody thinks they will be.
The Dodgers won the division by 22 games last year. Losing Trea, JT and Anderson and the Padres picking up Bogaerts, Carpenter and whoever else does not equate to 22 games. The Dodgers are still very, very good. They just don’t look like it because of who they lost. I expect Muncy to be the 35 homer guy we’ve seen in the past. He was a top 5 hitter in the sport from August to the end of the season. CT will bounce back and I’m calling a big year from J.D. Martinez. He’s still only 34 and had a great first half last year. The rotation is definitely the biggest question. They need to shore that up more.
In regards to Trea, like others have said, AF never had a shot at him. The Padres threw 40 million more at him and he took less money to play on the East Coast. He was never staying.
As a native Angelino that has watched the Dodgers since the 60’s, I have to say that the game is totally different than it was during the fab four infield with Russell at short (I have an autographed baseball by Russell when he was just coming up and the Dodgers used to have players in the stands signing autographs before games, also, Russell came up as an outfielder that was converted to a shortstop if my memory serves me). In those days you groomed players or traded for someone to fill a need. These days it is mostly about free agency. My humble opinion is that we can groom players and let the kids play; Lux can play short, Smith catching, Vargas at third, Muncy at second, Outman and Taylor in the outfield; mostly homegrown talent with Muncy and Taylor as the outliers. Then to pitching, Kershaw the man of his generation, Urias, Bueller, May and Gonsolin, and I am really anxious to see Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone; all homegrown. I am grateful that we have two staples from FA Betts and Freeman. There were a lot of miscues along the way a la Bauer; Darren Dreifort and Jason Schmidt come to mind, not to mention Andruw Jones. Bauer is unique because of his off field transgressions. So, with all of that, I will root for the kids and hope for the best; let’s keep the payroll down to earthly levels and reduce the ticket prices; my humble opinions.
Don’t forget Jason Schmidt and Andruw Jones as awful free agent signings
Yep, FA can be a crap shoot at times. Success will come as the overall analytics on free agency become more and more precise. The Bauer signing was a really, really bad choice.
Completely agree with the “warts” and “past his peak” concerns and I’m glad AF didn’t over commit because many felt “they HAVE to” sign a premier shortstop.
I wonder if the game in this era would allow Lux to become an everyday shortstop of the Bill Russell type? Not flashy but competent long term. I kinda doubt it. The expectations have changed and notable offense from the position is now seen as required.
I believe AF is keeping his powder dry and watching for signs Lux rises to the opportunity. Lux WILL make some errors in trying to impress (and of course people will jump all over him/AF) but as the season rolls along I hope he gets the pressure under control and emerges.
Yep Dan, Dodgers did just fine with Russell at SS. Lux will get a chance to show what he can do. Rojas is the safety net in case he bombs.
I think Russell is a good comparison. Having watched Russell his entire Dodgers career, I think he was an all around better defensive athlete than Lux. Russell moved from infield to outfield seamlessly whereas Lux looks lost in the OF — and Russell had the stronger and much more accurate arm.
Does Ron realize that the Giants lost their best pitcher in Rodon. They have nothing left but mediocre players.
Giants D Backs and Rockies will all finish bow 500. The Dodgers will surprise to the upside. Dodgers will win 93-94 because they know how to win games.
I give them a 50% chance to finish first.
I think our starting pitching and pen are ose to the top of the NL.Ourineup also is top 3 in the NL
Ron may have been referring to the Giants, but he wasn’t specific. I think the dark horse in the NL West is the AZ Dbacks. They have quietly assembled some terrific, young players — if they add another quality starter and late inning reliever they will be in good position to finish well above the Giants. While the Dbacks have not been rumored in the Pablo Lopez (Marlins) trade discussions, they have enough outfield depth to acquire the young right hander and that could put them in position to make a big move up the NL West rankings.
I think LA should trade Cartaya to Reds for 5 tool Elly De La Cruz. We have no room for Cartaya and the Reds have a bunch of highly rated ss/3b prospects. De La Cruz stats last year:
.304 avg
.359 OBP
28 HRs
86 rbi
47 sb
I have had the same thought (about trading Cartaya) but the Reds have a terrific young catcher Stephenson (sp?) and another in their pipeline. I think the Reds would be more likely to want no. 1 pitching prospect Bobby Miller and Miguel Vargas (for first base) but still a very good thought.
Overall, ZiPS sees Arizona as a team that’s broadly somewhere around .500 at the moment, perhaps a bit better. The problem is that it’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks being as good as the top three teams in the NL West in 2023. They should be thankful for the extra wild card; otherwise a successful season might be limited to lapping the Rockies in the race for fourth place.
My projection is based on AZ acquiring another, top of rotation pitcher. I also think that the year’s experience their you players gained in 2022 will result in really good seasons in 2023
Well written. Thank you. Also, it looks like Dodgers signed a handful of International SS prospects today. They also have a young hitting SS/3B named Doncon, with very impressive numbers to date. I for one am for agreement in acquiring Adames via trade. But, for whom? Lux and some pitching prospects sounds good to me. Again, very timely and well written. Thanks
Who might the Brewers accept in addition to Gavin Lux for Adames? My guess: pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May
Thank you.
2023 will be Doncon’s age 19 season, likely at Low A Rancho Cucamonga. Scouting reports like his bat, but as he matures physically they think he may out grow shortstop which is OK because the team is very thin for third base prospects. Another 19-year-old prospect is Wilman Diaz who will start the season with the AZ rookie team. Diaz is considered a plus defensive player with speed, arm, glove, etc. but his offense is a work in progress.
The Dodgers will not trade 2 controllable started and Lux for a Pending UFA. That would leave us down 3 Starters next season. I really think Kershaw is going to call it a career after 2023, especially if they win a WS this year.
This is all moot. The writing has been on the wall since Ohtani said he wants to play for a winner. Coming to the Dodgers just means his commute is a bit longer.
This is why we did little in this offseason. Friedman will throw 50mm a year or more at Ohtani, while the other teams who shot their wad this offseason look on. With the exception of Cohen. Ohtanti wouldn’t take a meeting east of Arlington when he was a free agent.
So while playing walk a mole at SS, envision the single most talented player in Baseball. Then start building the team with a perennial Cy Young Pitcher candidate. Plus a perennial MVP Candidate at DH.
Fair points, although Adames is not a “pending free agent.” He will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season.
Here is what I noted about an Adames trade: “But, will the Dodgers part with a robust package of players and prospects to obtain the All Star shortstop who could leave via free agency after two seasons? That may be the $250M question. Unless the team is ready to sign Adames to a long, lucrative contract after the trade, then they may go to another option for their future shortstop.”
My reasoning for guessing Gonsolin and May: Gonsolin will be 29 years old in May and IMO just had his career year by morphing into a breaking ball pitcher — his best pitch by far is the splitter — everything else is graded as average or below average — and the splitter is extremely hard on a pitcher’s elbow. Dustin May is the pitcher I have difficulty including in the trade — he could become the ace of a pitching staff.
For me (just a fan) I prefer Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Gavin Stone over Gonsolin. It will take the inclusion of May to get Adames who I think will be all around better than Trea Turner.
In addition, I believe the Dodgers will trade for another starting pitcher. My guess, it will be the Miami Marlins (Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rodgers, or Jesus Luzardo?).
Spot on Doc! Do you think they would offer Ohtani 1 or 2% ownership in the franchise?
JP I would not overpay for Adames. Roberts has 3 yrs Adames 2 yrs.
Gonsolin even at 3.00 Era and 150 innings on the open market would be worth 15m plus per yr.
Lux and Rojas will play SS.
JD Martinez will replace JTs offense.
Whoever plays CF will be better than Belly offensively. So CF improvement will contribute to making up the loss of Trea Turner. Vargas, Outman, Trayce Thompson and a bounce back yr from CT3 and the Dodgers will be a top 3-5 offense. Pitching will be a strength Dodgers will be fine. Can always add at any time.
I guess it comes down to how much value one puts on each player, and I think Adames settles shortstop for rest of the decade (assuming Dodgers sign him to extension). The Dodgers are once again loaded with high potential pitchers and no ready soon shortstops or third basemen.
JP
My concern like yours is Gavin’s arm,
And turning the dp.Rojas is a gold glove SS.
Can he hit 240 and hit in the clutch.
Our strength SPitching and bullpen.
My only concern with Rojas defensively is the October 2022 surgery on his right wrist, and the reported “cleanup” procedure on the same wrist that has yet to be scheduled. Offense? For his career, he is 15% below ML average. The Dodgers can afford to have a great fielder at SS with a below average bat as long as the rest of the team can supply the offense. Right now, LF and CF offense is very questionable.
Everyone has made very good points. I am looking forward to a season where games in August and September could really mean something.
Spot on!
The Dodgers are basically hoping and praying in 1923 hoping for their shot at Ohtani. This is fine if it works out, but they can’t be shy when the time comes. I for one do not buy into the Lux full time at short. He is not a great fielder and I believe he’s a 275 hitter with 15 homers and 50 rbi per season guy, that’s not good enough.
Lets lets Lux a shot, with defensive specialist in late innings, if needed,for this year and see how things go.
Good option that may be the Dodgers plan for 2023. For me, I would like to see the Dodgers tell Lux “You are the second baseman, now and future; don’t concern yourself with shortstop, become the best offensive second baseman in the game and we will find someone else to hold down shortstop.”