Now that the you-know-who mess is in its final stages of DFA administrative procedures, the Dodgers can turn their full attention to other roster decisions. While trades and/or free agent signings have been the front and center topics of MLB journalists and fans for the last several weeks, the Dodgers have ten players who have filed for salary arbitration. 

This Friday, January 13, 2023 is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary amounts for the 2023 season. For the Dodgers, that is a metaphorical line-in-the-sand date — once the team and player(s) exchange their respective best and final offers (BAFO) there are no further negotiations. Termed a “file-and-trial” or “file-to-go” policy, it is a straight forward negotiation strategy to motivate players and their agents to negotiate in good faith before exchanging arbitration figures.

After the figures are exchanged, an arbitration hearing will be scheduled between January 30 and February 17, 2023 where a panel of arbitrators will listen to both parties rationale for the salaries they submitted. The panel will then decide on on either the player’s salary, or the team’s salary figure — this is referred to as pendulum arbitration, there is no middle ground.

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Dodgers players eligible for salary arbitration with their projected 2023 salaries:

• Yency Almonte – ($1M)
• Walker Buehler – ($8.1M)
• Caleb Ferguson – ($1.1M)
• Tony Gonsolin – ($3.5M)
• Brusdar Graterol* – ($1.2M)
• Dustin May – ($1.4M)
• Evan Phillips – ($1.4M)
• Will Smith – ($5.2M)
• Trayce Thompson – ($1.7M)
• Julio Urías* ($13.7M – eligible for free agency after 2023 season)

*Represented by Scott Boras agency

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Eight of the arbitration eligible players should resolve their contracts with the Dodgers sooner rather than later, hopefully avoiding the often contentious arbitration hearings. But Julio Urías and Walker Buehler pose significant issues to the Dodgers in arbitration and beyond.

Over the last two seasons (2021 through 2022), Urías has been one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, and he is only 26 years old — just entering his prime professional baseball years. For comparison purposes, 30-year-old Carlos Rodón (with comparable statistics over the same period) recently signed a six-year/$162M free agent contract with the New York Yankees. While the Dodgers may be willing to offer Urías a similar, or greater, contract extension, Scott Boras, often referred to as ‘The Baseball Antichrist,’ will likely convince his client to test free agency after the 2023 season.

There is an additional element of complexity to the Buehler arbitration; it is unlikely that he will throw a competitive pitch for the Dodgers in 2023. He underwent his second Tommy John surgery on August 23, 2022 – exactly seven years and 18 days after his first. While TJ surgery is now relatively common among ML pitchers, a second surgery is more problematic, with longer recovery periods and a lower probability that the pitcher will return to his pre-injury form.

In addition, Buehler is currently on pace to reach free agency after the 2024 season, but should he fail to earn a full year of ML service time (172 days on ML roster during regular season) in 2023 and 2024, his free agency (and the associated big money contract) will be delayed. It seems improbable that the Dodgers will agree to pay Buehler $8M and keep him on their Major League 40-man roster while he rehabs from surgery.

How (or if) the Dodgers and Buehler’s agents work around those issues may go a long way toward determining whether he will remain with the team over the next several years?

Back to business indeed.

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