December 3rd, 2022 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 * * *
“If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”
– Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman
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A proverb to remember when Dodgers fans consider free agent options for the team’s 2023 and future rosters. And, words that Friedman would do well to remember as he retools the team in pursuit of future World Series. That axiom resulted in the contracts for Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer (cringe), and Freddie Freeman – but a seemingly rational approach that put Corey Seager into a Texas Rangers uniform in 2022.
(SportsNet LA)
That being said, Friedman and the Dodgers foray into the current free agent market may be complicated by internal and external payroll issues. The internal issue may be a self-imposed cap on 2023 total team payroll at, or below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $233 million. Considering the players who will be eligible for free agency after the 2023 and 2024* seasons, it would be prudent for the Dodgers to reset their tax penalties to zero by restraining spending now to be aggressive in next two years.
The external issue is the pending Trevor Bauer arbitration decision. Fangraphs forecasts the Dodgers 2023 payroll just under $169 million (including projected salaries of currently rostered players). When the Clayton Kershaw contract is formalized, the payroll will be ~ $190 million. Should the arbitration panel reduce Bauer’s suspension to one year the team payroll could increase by his $32M to $222 million — just $11 million below the 2023 CBT threshold. (Note: Bauer has the option of a $15M buyout)
Until the Bauer arbitration decision is final, do not expect the team to make any major free agent signings. If his two-year suspension is upheld, the Dodgers decision tree goes in a more aggressive direction; if reduced to one year, the Dodgers will be much more conservative participants.
So, who which free agent(s) will the Dodgers sign for the 2023 season?
Conservative/moderate approach – (Bauer suspension reduced to one year, he exercises $15M buyout and becomes free agent. Team does not re-sign Trea Turner, or any of the high profile shortstops).
Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard – (Dodgers pitching gurus work their magic and return Thor to top of rotation performance).
Left Fielder Michael Conforto (caveat, if healthy) – Motivation playing for big 2024 free agent contract. Dodgers hitting coaches help him return to big, left-handed bat output.
Third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson – hitting coaches work their magic
Syndergaard, Conforto, and Anderson – lower base salaries with playing time incentives. Aggressive approach (MLB wins Bauer arbitration)
Shortstop Carlos Correa – put him in Dodger uniform and all is forgiven
In either scenario, look for the Dodgers to be active in the trade market to finish the roster renovation, the subject of our next article.
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* The 2023-24 free agent class: third basemen Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, and Manny Machado (player option); pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani; and, pitchers Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and their own Julio Urias. 2024-25 may be one of the best starting pitcher free agent classes in MLB history: Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Corbin Burns, Gerritt Cole (player option), Max Fried, Tyler Glasgnow, Eric Lauer, Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff, et al.
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Posted in 
The Dodgers 2023 season could very well be determined in the next 48 hours.
Trying to figure out Friedman’s time line is always a challenge
The 2022 Dodger lineup was the best in the history of the team. And a historic playoff failure. Roberts was unable to finish his purpose. None of the alleged Dodger Free Agent Targets excites me. The idea of replacing Trea Turner with Carlos Correa makes me vomit. Hopefully Friedman will resign the Turners, bring up the Bobby Millers of the world and put Dave Roberts on the short leash he deserves.
Everybody saw the dodgers didn’t go to the WS, but look like anybody remember that we didn’t have buehler and May as starter and Treinen as RP, that was significant lost.
How bout a trade for Brian Reynolds of the Pirates. Prospects?
Back up plan if we don’t go big on
SS-sign Julio Iglesias, he’s a plus defender and has hit well everywhere. He can split SS with Lux. Trade for Reynolds.
Sign a SP.
Fill needs at the trade deadline.
I like the thought of trading for Bryan Reynolds — and he has requested a trade from Pirates. Will be discussing that very trade possibility in upcoming article. Jose Iglesias doesn’t excite me (other than his glove), I would rather see the Dodgers sign Jean Segura for second base and backup at SS.
I like Segura as well.
I don’t think they will be very active. If financial than is ridiculous. With all the fans they’ve brought in over the years the owners are making money like you wouldn’t believe. We should be ready for the dodgers to step back from being one of the better teams in the NL west for a few years.
First, staying below the 2023 CBT $233M threshold is my guess — I provided the reasons why I think that will happen, but it is still a guess. I have no doubt that Andrew Friedman will find ways to keep the Dodgers competitive in 2023 and beyond. If the team does reset and avoid all taxes and draft penalties in 2023 they will be in great position to exceed the 2024 and 2025 thresholds for top notch free agent classes.
I didn’t like the cringe remark after mentioning Trevor Bauer, the man was innocent and I for one hope that he comes back. I assume you would have liked him better if he would have just paid her like, lets say, DeShawn Watson.
The “cringe” was relative to all of the chaos Bauer has caused the Dodgers. Being placed on paid administrative leave was a significant blow to the team — and then disciplinary unpaid suspension. The “cringe” had nothing to do with guilt or innocence, simply a recognition that he was paid tens of millions without pitching for the team.
Rumor
Dodgers offer Senga 5 yrs 70 m.
Questions about his ability to command his pitches, would the Dodgers commit to 5 years? Think I would rather have Taillon for about same AAV and fewer years
No way Bauer opts out if he is reinstated. Do the Dodgers take a $32M hit or play him. I would play him.
Seem logical, but I think Bauer and his legal team are looking for more. Take the $15M, become a free agent and market to all other MLB teams. With the dearth of pitching some team (like the Astros, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, etc.) will likely give him a three year deal.
Get Brian Reynolds in a trade. Plenty of farm system trade chips for that. Burnes and Adames too. Stay under CBT. If no Bauer then sign Rodon or Senga. If Bauer is ruled eligible don’t play him. If so, do not sign any expensive free agent big time starter to stay under the CBT. Wait for 2023 and 2024.
Reynolds makes perfect sense for Dodgers, as do Burns and Adames. Cover those possibilities in upcoming piece. Bauer depends on the facts that come out in arbitration. If Dodgers have to pay $32M I think they will pitch him unless the facts support the team sues him for breaking the contract.
I won’t watch a single inning if that garbage if they sign that cheating scumbag Correa
All is not forgiven if Correa puts on a Dodger uniform! I have already told my friends that I am season ticket holders with, that if the Dodgers sign that cheat, I will not renew my season tickets until he is not a Dodger. The feeling was mutual…Lux came up as a shortstop. I’d much rather root for Gavin! Go Dodgers!
I’ve been going to about 30 games a year since 2011 or so. It will be a cold day in hell the day I cheer for Carlos Correa. No way.
Now that Trea is gone and Judge is back in the Bronx. The Dodgers main need is a SS.
I would be fine with Bogaerts and or Swanson. Then add a solid SP.
I could live with Outman and Thompson in CF if we get a star SS.
This may tick-off many Dodgers fans, but I would like to see the Dodgers sign Correa for shortstop as long as Clayton Kershaw, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman are OK with him on the roster. In the long run, Correra will likely be a better all around SS than Trea Turner. Some team is going to sign Correa — are Dodgers fans OK with him as the Giants, Padres, or even Diamondbacks shortstop for the next 5 to 6 years?
The players and coaches did what they did.
The Commissioner should have stripped the Astros of the title or made dodgers and Stros co champs or said no champ.
Then a statement would have been made and it would have set a precedent and everyone could have moved on.
You absolutely nailed the real issue — a weak commissioner without the guts to do the right thing(s)