Go ahead, fill in the blank.
The Dodgers do not have a more important 2023 roster decision. Join in the prognostications of MLB analysts Jim Bowden, Ken Rosenthal, John Heyman, Jon Morosi, and others, as they stoke the 2022-23 Hot Stove season with this Dodgers dilemma.
The free agency of Trea Turner has the potential of leaving a huge offensive void at the top of the Dodgers lineup. Over the last four MLB seasons, 2019-22, Turner has been at the top of Fangraphs’ offensive shortstop stats with 20 wins above replacement (WAR), 110.6 Offensive Runs above average (OFF), and 33% above ML average for runs created. Losing Turner would leave a hole in the Dodgers lineup as big as the sink holes seen in the fictional TV series “La Brea.”
Fill-in the blank and add an exclamation point — Trea Turner!
“I would love to be here,” said Turner. “Whatever it is, from almost any angle you look at it, it seems like [the Dodgers] are the best in baseball, or one of the best. This place is awesome. I’d like to be here, and hopefully they feel the same way, that they would love to have me.”
Turner wants to be a Dodger, he is at the top of his game, the overwhelming majority of fans love him, the team has the financial wherewithal to sign him, and there is not another shortstop in the organization who comes close to his talent and on-field performance. Use the KISS principle – Keep it Simple Stupid – and re-sign Trea Turner!
However, free agency is a capricious mistress who can allure players with money over organizational intangibles. If Turner is swept away from the Dodgers by a team willing to exceed monetary reasonableness, in which direction will the team move to replace their All-Star shortstop?
The Dodgers can jump into the free agency frenzy and offer big money contracts to one of Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox) or Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins), or perhaps Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves) can be lured to Los Angeles by his friend Freddie Freeman. The team could fill the position internally by handing the shortstop job to Gavin Lux who has only shown flashes of the talent that earned him recognition by Baseball America as the 2019 Minor League Player of the Year. Lux could be backed up by Chris Taylor, or shortstop prospect Jacob Amaya.
The other option, Dodgers trade for a starting shortstop. But, with teams coveting talented shortstops, the trade market is far from robust.
The Boston Red Sox may be motivated to trade 30-year-old Trevor Story whose remaining $115 million could be viewed by the team as a payroll albatross, limiting the team’s ability to re-sign All-Star shortstop Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers, who will be a free agent after the 2023 season. Story’s offense over the last two seasons (2021-22) has been meh, but the Dodgers may believe they can return him to his All-Star levels when he was playing for the Colorado Rockies.
Who would the Dodgers send to the Red Sox in return for Story? Likely depends on how much of Story’s remaining contract is assumed by the Dodgers. It could be as straight forward as Chris Taylor and a lower level prospect like pitcher Landon Knack, or catcher Carson Taylor. The Red Sox may prefer a combination of higher level prospects like Jacob Amaya and Jorbit Vivas packaged with Taylor or Knack.
A higher priority shortstop for a Dodgers trade would be Milwaukee Brewers’ Willy Adames. Only 27 years old, Adames is the type of player that a team builds around, not trading. However, the budget-conscious Brewers have a payroll issue rapidly approaching with outfielder Hunter Renfroe eligible for free agency in one year, Adames and their top three starting pitchers (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Eric Lauer) in their last year of arbitration and free agents after the 2024 season.
Trading for Adames will be costly in terms of players and prospects, and may require the Dodgers taking on a bad contract. A deal with the Brewers could become an old-fashioned blockbuster. One possible scenario, the Dodgers acquire Adames, Southern California native outfielder Christian Yelich (and his remaining $156 million contract), and starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff. In return, the Brewers would receive a package of players that includes Wisconsin native Gavin Lux, infielder/outfielders Chris Taylor ($41 million contract) and Edwin Ríos, pitcher Ryan Pepiot, and infielder Jacob Amaya.
OK, Dodgers fans, fill in the blank: The Dodgers 2023 shortstop is __________.
In addition to the who, explain the how. Let’s get this Hot Stove white hot with your strategy for building a championship roster for 2023.
* * * * * *
@Dodgers @JacobAmaya3
@Dodgers Really like that proposed Brewers trade, but I don’t see Milwaukee doing it this off season.
In my scenario, the Brewers motivation is to get out from under the Yelich contract, and get a good return for Adames knowing that they will not be able to keep him in free agency.
@Dodgers CT3!
CT3 may be a good option if the team can acquire at least one proven, offensive outfielder
I don’t want Yelich.
So I think the brewers send Wong to the mariners for Winker.
The dodgers trade 2b Busch, P Pepiot,Pepiot, another prospect pitcher and SS Armeya for
woodruff or burned and Adames
I don’t think Brewers will trade Adames to the Dodgers without a ready now shortstop (Lux) being in the package. While Friedman talks up Amaya, he has not yet shown that he will be able to consistently hit ML pitching.
If Lux is the shortstop than Marcus should be the second baseman. Marcus could win the gold glove at the keystone corner as he does now in right field. It’s easier to find outfielders opposed to infielders.
Thinking outside the box, Gunnar Henderson is coming and there is no chance Joey Ortiz would be made available. If the Dodgers can fix Jorge Mateo, that could be interesting and they could have him cheaper than anyone else.
Moving Betts to 2b is a viable option if the Dodgers can add a good RF’er — perhaps Michael Conforto? Or, Hunter Renfro? Or, long shot Aaron Judge???? Jorge Mateo would be a huge gamble — I think the Dodgers need to do better if Turner leaves. For me, I think Jacob Amaya has a higher offensive upside than Mateo.
I’d be very interested in the Dodgers looking at Tim Anderson. i think the Sox would look at moving him. He has multiple things the Dodgers desperately need. A guy that hits for a high average but more importantly he brings that FIRE the Dodgers clearly lacked in October. They need a dude that isn’t scared of ruffling some feathers and isn’t scared of big moments. And his bat to ball skills are a huge bonus in this lineup. Yea he strikes out a lot but who doesn’t nowadays? We’ve watched CT3 thrive for years now (minus this year) and that guy strikes out more than anybody I’ve ever seen. I don’t have time to put together a faux deal but I really hope they look at him. Go get TA Dodgers!
Anderson would be a terrific add for the Dodgers if Turner goes to another team — I considered including him, but at a $12.5M salary for 2023, and team option for 2024 at $14M, I don’t see the White Sox trading such a talented and relatively inexpensive shortstop. The downside to Anderson is his injury history that has substantially reduced games played after the 2018 season. That being said, if the White Sox trade him I would love to see him a Dodger if Turner leaves.
Today is the first of the matches that will light the torch to show what the dodgers are thinking. Belli nger is up today. Could his 18 to 19 mil be better spent.
Top notch question. I think yes, $18M could be better spent, but as you pointed out in earlier comments, the team, Bellinger, and Boras may find a much less expensive way for Cody to remain a Dodger.
i’m curious why you guys arent using Vargas in any scenario.
an infield of vargas, lux, muncy and freddie looks pretty good to me.
also having taylor, rios and perhaps JT, why would they spend mega money (other than to appease the clamoring masses) or move betts, other than to appease a bored superstar?
i definitely see value in busch and amaya but at this point in their development and given ages, i’m not sure they have true futures in LA
six of those seven guys can play at least 2 positions
My opinion: if the Dodgers lose both Turners an infield of Vargas, Lux, Muncy, and Freddie does not come close to replacing the offense from Justin Turner/Max Muncy, Trea Turner, Gavin Lux, and Freddie.
As of today, the only offense the Dodgers can count on from the OF is Mookie Betts — everyone else: Bellinger, Thompson, Taylor, Outman, Vargas, Busch, and Rios, are question marks.
Defensively, Vargas MiLB fielding average at 3b is .916 — his best position is first base and learning to play LF in the majors. And the throwing of Lux remains a work in progress (Fangraphs rates his throwing as a 30 from the 80 scale).
They could replace the lost offense by trade or free agency at another position, but those options will be expensive in either prospects/players traded, or money in contract.
My preference: Max Muncy, Trea Turner, Gavin Lux, Freddie Freeman on the infield
Dodgers must get a SS. We have the resources and Friedman will get it done.