November 14th, 2022 at 8:30 am 
by Ron Cervenka To say that Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger had a poor 2022 season would be very kind. The painful truth is that the 27-year-old Scottsdale, AZ native and Dodgers fourth round draft pick in 2013 out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, AZ was awful in 2022, and he would be the very first to tell you so.
Bellinger finished his dismal 2022 season with a very un-Bellinger-like slash line of .210/.265/.389/.654, with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, three triples, and 68 RBIs. He did, however, steal 14 bases while being caught only three times, so there’s that.
The thing to keep in mind here is that we are talking about a guy who is a two-time All-Star and one of the most elite defensive outfielders of our generation; a guy who was the 2017 National League Rookie of the Year, the 2019 NL Most Valuable Player, and has a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series ring in his trophy case.
Unfortunately, we must also keep in mind that Bellinger’s ugly 2022 season was better than his 2021 season, when he slashed an even worse .165/.240/.302/.542, with 10 home runs, nine doubles, two triples, and 36 RBIs. He did, however, steal three bases while being caught only once, so there’s that.
To be fair, it would be negligent not to mention the fact that the one-time huge fan-favorite has had to deal with several very serious injuries that caused him to miss a combined 85 of the Dodgers 324 regular-season games in 2021 and 2022. But as we all know, baseball is very much a ‘what have you done for me lately’ sport; one that has a bevy of some of the harshest critics on the planet, and, man, are they speaking out about Bellinger’s looming (and final) arbitration eligibility – one that will either end with the Dodgers offering him another (and final) one-year contract extension (probably in the $20 million-ish range), or non-tendering him a contract, thereby sending him (and his agent Scott Boras) into the world of free agency – something that many once thought would never happen.
“We still very much believe in Belli’s ability and we got to see firsthand how hard he worked throughout the season,” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told reporters during last week’s owners meetings in Las Vegas. “Obviously, he’ll be the first to tell you that it was below the expectations that he has for himself. And right now, I know he’s working with our [hitting] guys and doing everything he can to put himself in position to be a real force for us next year. But we still have time to work through what everything looks like.”
That “time” is winding down rapidly, especially with a number of teams looking to add MVP-caliber defensive talent to their respective outfields.
“I think it’s about health and strength,” Boras told reporters on Wednesday. “We know he’s a five-tool player, an MVP-type. Unfortunately, he got hurt in the [2020] World Series. We had COVID in between that, we had interrupted elements. So, to get him a really, really solid offseason to get his strength back, it’s really about getting his strength back so he can compete at his skill level.”
This, of course, is why Boras is considered the best agent in the business. I mean, what else could he possibly say about this very unpleasant situation.
Although the so-called bottom line remains to be seen with all of this, there is a very strong possibility that Dodgers fans have already witnessed their last ‘Belli Bomb.’
…at least in a Dodgers uniform.
Play Ball!
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Posted in 
@JDodgersgirl @Dodgers Keep him
WORSE than seeing Bellinger go non-tendered by the Dodgers and even worse than seeing him in a Padres or Giants uniform would be to see him go ANYWHERE and return to near his MVP caliber play.
That would kill me as badly as when I think of Mike Piazza or Pedro Martinez being traded or worse, that Roberto Clemente was and SHOULD have been a lifetime Dodger.
I was blessed to have covered Cody when he was at (then Advanced Single-A) Rancho Cucamonga. We actually became (and remain) good friends because of it.
There is no one, absolutely no one, on this planet who wants to see him get back to his old self (besides himself) than I.
Although I may be opening a giant can of worms here, I sincerely believe that much of Cody’s struggles are the direct result of who he chose to be his agent.
There. I said it. Fire away.
Whether or not Bellinger is tendered (offered) a 2023 contract likely depends on the Dodgers projected payroll is for the season. If they pay Trea Turner (or Bogaerts/Correa) between $32 and $35M, and Kershaw ~$20M (plus incentives), paying Cody $18.1M (projected arbitration amount) may not be practical as the team tries to reign-in spending.
It would be interesting to know how the Dodgers analytics view Cody under the new 2023 defensive shift rules. For example, if the Dodgers believe that Cody will get just four more hits in every 100 a bats, his batting average will effectively increase by 40 points — and a .250/.320/.430 slash line for a Gold Glove quality centerfielder is valuable to any MLB team.
One possibility is a two year deal with an opt-out provision for Cody after 2023. Perhaps a $13M AAV, with $26M guaranteed?
One factor to consider, there has been a change to arbitration contracts. If the team and player agree to a contract before reaching arbitration that contract is guaranteed. But, if the sides go to arbitration the team can terminate the contract before the season begins and pay a prorated percentage rather than full salary. There is nothing to be gained by the Dodgers settling with Cody and Boras before arbitration unless the deal is team friendly.
I like the idea of a multi yr with Cody. Unfortunately as Ron mentioned earlier his agent.
We have treat turners 20 mil salary from last yr, JT and Belly money that’s a lot of bread.
First things first.
Tyler Anderson if he stays solves the pitching equation. We have to start using the kids. Pitching staff is fine. We don’t need to win every reg season game and then run out of gas in October.
SS and CF are the issues.
Right now, Boras trying to convince teams that Bellinger is worth $17M to $20M in 2023 is nothing more than a snake oil salesman grasping at the air. Dodgers cannot cut Bellinger’s pay by more than 20% ($3.4M) would be the best he can expect on the open market. Bellinger become a free agent is a huge gamble if the Dodgers offer him anywhere close to $26M guaranteed over the next two seasons with a player option. Pitching? The Dodgers typically use 10 starters during a season: Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, Anderson, May, Pepiot make six with Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone perhaps in the mix. That leaves them at least one short, perhaps two if the team doesn’t want to waste a ML service year on Miller and Stone (they will not be eligible for Rule 5 draft until Dec. 2023)
steve, with respect, i feel that is reversed. they have vargas and outman ready to move up. that plugs both of your holes. the offense and defense look good across the board. i would like to see JT back for another year.
the pitching is a mess. in urias, LA has ONE dependable pitcher booked for next year. kersh, may and goose all have injury questions. buehler is out for the year, grove and pep aren’t quite there yet (both have WHIP >1.4), stone and miller should see some time, jackson has fallen off the rankings. that is some pretty patchy pitching (say that 3x fast) for a top contending team. we definitely don’t need mega deals with all of that talent in the pipeline. i’d be looking at names like heaney, wacha, kluber, stripling and ross.there are others that could be here. they are all under $10M, bounce back candidates, swing options with varying degrees of success and upside. of course the real issue is behind the scenes; how receptive are they to adjusting their pitch mix or mechanics as our team requires.
bauer could be available. will LA use him? maybe? does he get redemption like hader and osuna or a death sentence like rocker and russell? time will tell
Jalex
this was before T Anderson signed elsewhere.
But I really believe Gonsolin and May are ready. We must now sign at least 1 starter. Its time to bring up the kids, that was always the Dodger way.
look at the Braves.
Plus we have to approach this season with a goal of winning the division not winning 111 games. It wont take 100.
time to develop
let Busch Outman Vargas play.
Bellinger’s stat line since 2021 is: .193/.256/.355
Not a small sample size, we are talking 900 plate appearances.
Let Avans or Outman play. They’ll get more offensive production out of them paying the major league minimum.
Not intended to be a Belligner apologist, but I think 2022 is a better representation of his current performance. 2021 was recovery year from shoulder surgery and that is a long, and difficult rehab.
2022 wasn’t much to brag about. Bellinger swings from the heels continuously, and rarely shortens up when the situation dictates it. Whenever he did, he was an affective hitter, but those times were few and far between.
$17 million for a guy that plays stellar D and hits under .200 is too much. He has been given a few years to perform and it isn’t happening. We are talking a former MVP that bats 9th or is benched in the playoffs. Bellinger is done as a Dodger and in my opinion, it is time to move on. There is a hole in his swing the size of the Grand Canyon and he wasn’t even getting around on fastballs. The word is out to pitch him up and in and he’s toast.
I would love to be wrong about this and if he stays, I’ll root for him like no other fan, but the baseball world knows his weaknesses and Bellinger fails to adjust. Just ask Jerry Hairston, he outlined the problems succinctly.
I do not disagree with you — I am extremely frustrated with Bellinger’s mechanics, approach, and seemingly stubbornness. I was just pointing out that 2021 performance needs to be taken in context of playing less than a year after shoulder surgery. I remember Adrian Gonzalez saying that it took two years for his surgically repaired shoulder to regain all of its strength. By no means do I think 2022 was a good year for Bellinger — there were only glimpses of him fully using his talent. I wrote earlier that I thought the Dodgers would not tender him a contract for 2023, but it appears that they are trying to find a way to keep him at a more reasonable salary. I do wonder what the team’s analytics predict for Bellinger with the new shift rules that take effect in 2023? IF the Dodgers believe Cody will gain 4 hits in every 100 at bats, then his batting average is around .250 and his shoulder should be 100% — a conundrum for Friedman to work out.
Tyler Anderson just signed with the Angels
Yep, Dodgers definitely in the market for starting pitcher. Hmmm, Trevor Bauer????
Is he available?
Nothing official, but I think his suspension will be reduced to no more than one year.
Bellinger non-tendered