November 20th, 2021 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 Many Dodgers fans have dreaded the day that Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager would be eligible for MLB free agency, but that time is now upon us.The young man, who former MLB first baseman Adrian Gonzalez described as “… a special kid and someone I could see being a Hall of Famer in the future,” is now free to market his exceptional baseball skills for a payday that only a handful of MLB players have ever achieved.
(Photo credit – Alex Trautwig)
Do the Dodgers consider Seager one of the foundational position players in the team’s pursuit of World Championships for the better part of the next decade? What is Seager’s value to the Dodgers, and how much money and years is the team willing to commit in order to retain him on the roster? Does Seager want to be a Dodger, or are his priorities to play closer to home (North Carolina) or perhaps play with his favorite childhood team, the New York Yankees?
“A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma…” – Winston Churchill
The Dodgers and Yankees have been serious competitors for more than eight decades, both on and off the field. Now, it appears that the two financial Goliaths are on a collision course in the battle to sign 27-year-old Seager. While Seager has been a Dodger since the team drafted him in the first round of the 2012 MLB entry draft, 2021 free agency may lead him to another team for a huge payday – perhaps in the $300 million range, guaranteed over a 10-year period.
The contract bar for shortstops was recently set by Francisco Lindor (New York Mets) at 10 years / $341 million. Reportedly, Houston Astros free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa turned down the team’s five-year / $160 million offer to re-sign with the team. A strong case can be made that Seager is comparable to both Lindor and Correa and will likely receive a contract in the $32 to $34 million average annual range.
To reach the upper tier of compensation, there is nothing better than for Corey – and his representative Scott Boras – to have the Dodgers and Yankees negotiating against each other. Reportedly, the Dodgers offered Seager a multi-year extension earlier in 2021, but at the time, they had little negotiating leverage and were rebuffed. Negotiating with Scott Boras is difficult enough, but reaching a fair deal without legitimate leverage is as unlikely as sneaking a hunk of raw meat past a ravenous wolf; in either case, it is not going to end well.
The Dodgers significantly improved their negotiating leverage when they acquired 28-year-old middle infielder Trea Turner (along with future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer) from the Washington Nationals on July 30, 2021. Statistically, Turner is Seager’s equivalent at shortstop. Should Corey sign with another MLB team, the Dodgers have a ready-now replacement as they pursue the 2022 World Championship.
Nonetheless, the Dodgers should not allow any team to pay more or offer more guaranteed contract years to Seager. If he leaves, it must be for personal reasons, not compensation.
Bottom line: The team must not make the same mistake that owner Frank McCourt and General Manager Paul DePodesta made in 2004, which resulted in (then) 26-year-old Adrian Beltre leaving the Dodgers to play for the Seattle Mariners. Beltre wanted to be a Dodger for life, but McCourt and DePodesta bungled the deal. With the Mariners, Beltre went on to become a five-time Gold Glover, four-time All-Star, two-time Platinum Glover, and four-time Silver Slugger.
(Photo credit – Mark J. Terrill)
Oh yes, to complete Churchill’s famous quote:
“A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma – but perhaps there is a key.”
Turn the key, Andrew. Re-sign Corey Seager!
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Posted in 
You said what EVERY Dodger fan on the planet is thinking, Jesse. Thanks!
Dodgers will not be outbid by anyone that they really want.
Agreed. They may need to be innovative on how they structure a deal, and offset costs by trading other contracts, but bottom line they can pay as much as any team in MLB
What do you think about signing Seager and then trading t Turner.
Trea Turner is subject of a piece I am working on now, and trading him if Seager is signed is one of the possible scenario’s. In the past, Turner has been quoted that he wants to play on the East Coast and would not sign an extension with West Coast team. Of course, he could change his mind.
Dodgers need pitching more than a premiere SS. $300M plus will buy a lot of good pitching. And, they already have a SS for 2022.
Are you kidding? T. Turner is an error machine and as his sped drops with age those cheap infield hits will turn into outs.
Turner is about the same statistically (overall) as Seager for shortstop defense — but that is a small sample size Turner did not look good at second base defensively in the 2+ months he played for Dodgers. From what I observed, Seager stays at shortstop.
Dodgers have the payroll wherewithal to retain Seager and fill out its pitching rotation. Retaining Seager is a long term need, just as it was for Adrian Beltre (IMO)
Jesse
1-bauer will never pitch again for the dodgers.
2-they must know from discussions with the Commissioner that Bauer will be suspended from playing in 2022 without pay.
3-dodgers may be able to cancel his contract due to the Morals clause.
4-they can afford to eat his contract.
My thoughts –
1 – Unless some extremely unlikely scenario comes out of the investigation (like, Bauer was the target of some organized gambling conspiracy), I agree that he is unlikely to pitch again for Dodgers
2 – Would not surprise me if Bauer’s agents are now negotiating with MLB over the length of suspension that he would accept under the condition that Dodgers and MLB do not attempt to void his contract. Unless Pasadena DA presses for felony criminal charges, I think the suspension will be 1/2 season.
3 – Unless Bauer’s legal team reaches some type of agreement with MLB, I think Bauer may be the test case for voiding a contract.
4 – If no conspiracy (see no. 1), and facts are as reported in press, I think Bauer will be released regardless of the monetary cost to the Dodgers. And, another team (Houston Astros is my pick) will sign him to pitch in 2023.
1st) i love when people decide what other people or companies can “afford”. the rich didn’t get rich by following middle class ideas about what they can afford.
2nd) much as i loved beltre, he’s a terrible example of what should have been. after the botched surgery he lost so much weight and was a shadow of himself until he suddenly wasnt. he gained an incredible (as in not credible) amount of muscle and with 48HRs, hit more than 2x what he ever had before. in sea’s 5 years he produced a pedestrian OPS+101, hardly worthy of a (then labeled) mega deal. he never hit more than 26 HRs for them but led the lead in errors twice. in his 1st year with sea his BA dropped 80pts, slg dropped 200+ & his OPS+ dropped 70 pts so i suspect there may have been some buyers remorse.
the business of baseball makes it very difficult to retain this FA while promoting the likes of Lux, Beaty, McKinstry, & and Rios as well as protecting tomorrows youth. the 40 man is full while the starting rotation is two deep and all those free agents remain unsigned.
realistic isnt always pleasant.
Jalex — trying to reply, but working on glitch in my comment
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(Posted for Jesse verbatim due to technical difficulties)
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Thanks for the different perspective. No sarcasm intended, it is good to have differing opinions to debate.
To your first point, I don’t think there is any doubt that the Dodgers are in the financial position to compete for any player they believe is worth the contract. They have proven over the years that spending large sums on players is part of their strategy while retaining their very best prospects rather than trading. Consider the tens of millions that they committed to free agent players like Erisbel Arruebarrena ($25M), Alex Guerrero ($28M), Hector Olivera ($62.5M), Yadier Alvarez ($69M), Trevor Bauer ($40+M in 2021) — I could go on. Paying a highly regarded player like Seager is a much better investment for the future of the franchise than any of those players.
Regarding Adrian Beltre, I think he is a perfect comparison to allowing Seager leave in free agency. The 101 OPS is a little misleading considering that Beltre had two seasons of 106, and one season at 110. Over his five year Mariners’ career Beltre accumulated a 16 WAR (Fangraphs). Fangraphs projects that a MLB player’s value is ~ $8M for each WAR, so Beltre’s total value to the Mariners over that period was ~ $108M compared to his $65M contract. While Beltre was playing in Seattle the Dodgers had players like Willie Aybar, Wilson Betemit, Blake Dewitt, Andy Laroche, and an older Nomar Garciapara (1.2 WAR in three years in LA). Not until the Dodgers traded for Casey Blake (at the cost of Carlos Santana) did the Dodgers have a third baseman who came close to Beltre’s combination of offense and defense.
As far as the 40 man roster is concerned, there is no doubt that the Dodgers would gladly part with Beaty, or McKinstry to make room for Seager. For that matter, Seager is much more valuable than Lux, or Rios.
guys i have posted a response twice and it disappears. is there a glitch in uploading? is there a character limit?
We had some ‘technical difficulties.’ Should be ok now.
Corey Gone. On his way to TX