The Dodgers primary position players are established veterans who will use 2021 Spring Training to tuneup their respective skills for opening day; April 1, 2021. This is an accomplished group of offensive players who are the odds-on favorite to continue the Dodgers four-season string of leading the National League in the Fangraphs’ category Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Using the Designated Hitter for the first time in the 2020 season, the Dodgers led MLB in wRC+.

Unless one has a professionally-developed algorithm with which to project player performances or a trusted Ouija Board, forecasting stats usually involves the extrapolation of past performances with the assumption that existing player trends will continue, at least in the short term. There may also be some weighting bias involved by team fanatics, whether by a SWAG or unabashed wishful hope.

Not that wRC+ is the end-all of baseball offensive stats, but it is a single number from which one can compare players and to MLB on the whole. A wRC+ of 100 is equivalent to an average ML hitter for that season. If a hitter has a 90 wRC+, he is 10% below ML average, or a 120 wRC+ is 20% above average.

How have the Dodgers primary position players fared in this statistic over the last 3-seasons?

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Will Smith – catcher

Offensively, the 26-year-old Smith has been more than a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers. In his rookie season, 2019, Smith’s wRC+ was 132, an excellent performance. In 2020 he took it to an even higher level with a 163 that earned him time as the designated hitter when he wasn’t catching. Hitting in the sixth spot of the lineup, Smith’s wRC+ was 274 in 2020. What will he do in 2021? TBD, but more likely to trend toward 2019 performance.

Max Muncy – first base

Statistically, 2020 was the 30-year-old Muncy’s most challenging as a Dodger, a Major League average run producer after a 162 wRC+ in 2018 and 134 in 2019. Why the dramatic fall off? A quick look at his batting average with balls in play (BABIP) may be the answer. After hitting .299 and .283 in his first two seasons with LA, Max hit in tough luck with a .203 BABIP. Muncy is likely to also trend toward his 2019 performance.

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Chris Taylor – second base

Taylor, now 30 years old, became a full-time utility player for the Dodgers in 2017 and has been an above-average runs creator every season, reaching his career wRC+ high in 2020 with a 132, just 6-points higher than his 2017 season. If the Dodgers believe Chris can continue to produce at the 2017 and 2020 level, then keeping him in the lineup makes sense. On the other hand, if they believe he will more likely approach his 2018 (113) and 2019 (107) performance, he will be a highly valued utility player.

Justin Turner – third base

After becoming the Dodgers regular third baseman during the 2014 season JT has been a remarkable run producer for the team with the following wRC+ seasonal performance: 158, 141, 123, 151, 154, 132, and 140 last season. While the 36-year-old Turner’s defense at the hot-corner has slipped in the last couple of seasons, his ability to create runs for the team remains strong among the best at the position in MLB.

Corey Seager – shortstop

Seager will have his 27th birthday in the first month of the 2021 season, and has been one of the MLB’s leading offensive shortstops from the moment he joined the Dodgers at the end of the 2015 season. Even in 2018, while playing with a torn UCL in his throwing elbow, Corey had a 106 wRC+. In 2020 his 152 wRC+ was second only to the Washington Nationals Trea Turner (158) for all MLB shortstops. While a wRC+ in the 150 range is a lofty goal for 2021, Seager has matured into one of the finest offensive players in MLB, and he has the added incentive of playing for a free agent contract that could pay him as much as $300 million over the remainder of his career.

AJ Pollock – left field

The 33-year-old Pollock was healthy in 2020 and that paid big dividends for him and the Dodgers. With a 132 wRC+, AJ had his best offensive season since 2015 when played a full, healthy season with the Arizona Diamondbacks (131). Will that performance carryover for the 2021 season? His ability to avoid major injuries will likely be the determining factor. If healthy, he will likely repeat his 2020 performance; if not, the team will likely move to a platoon in left field.

Cody Bellinger – center field

While many ML players would be pleased with a 114 wRC+ season, it was disappointing for a player with Bellinger’s talent and skill. Across the statistical board, Cody had career lows for the 2020 season: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, BABIP, and wRC+. Right shoulder surgery after the World Series set back his off-season hitting routine so that he may have a slow start to spring training. Nevertheless, the 25-year-old Cody and the Dodgers expect a return to his offensive game that resulted in runs created from 120 (2018) to 162 (2019).

Mookie Betts – right field

There is a reason why the Dodgers signed Betts to a twelve-year/ $360 million contract in 2020; he is simply one of the finest players in MLB, both offensively and defensively. He is not only a Most Valuable Player but also a Most Valuable Person who will lead the team through the next decade. From 2017 through 2020, Mookie’s wRC+ were: 185, 135, and 149. At 28 years of age, he is just entering his prime years, and producing at these levels is expected, by him, the team, and fans.

Edwin Rios, Austin Barnes, and ? – Bench

Edwin Rios will be 26 years old during the first month of the 2021 season. Where he will play defensively this season will be sorted out in spring training. He will likely get playing time at third base when Turner needs rest; he could play first base with Muncy moving to second base and Taylor playing third, or he could get some time in left field in place of Pollock. The bottom line, Rios is an offensive force with a career 152 wRC+, and the Dodgers will find ways to put him in the lineup.

Mookie Betts chose to work with Austin Barnes in 2020 on his hitting, and that paid huge dividends for Barnes and the team. After a career year with the bat in 2017 (142 wRC+), Barnes struggled in 2018-19 (77 and 68). Under the tutelage of Betts, the 31-year old Barnes was an average offensive catcher last season with outstanding catching skills and game planning skills.

Who may join Rios and Barnes on the bench? Several players will be competing for the remaining two or three spots.

Twenty-one-year-old Keibert Ruiz (catcher) is a switch hitter who could allow Will Smith to play other positions to keep his bat in the lineup more frequently than sharing time behind the plate with Barnes.

Twenty-seven-year-old Matt Beaty, 22-year old Gavin Lux, and 25-year-old Zach McKinstry all hit from the left side and will be competing for a spot on the Opening Day active roster. Lux was Baseball America’s minor league Player of the Year in 2019 but a disappointment in 2020. McKinstry had a terrific spring training with the bat in 2020 and is a very good defensive player on the infield and outfield. Beaty has hit well in the minors, but his 77 wRC+ in 2020 and marginal defense will be difficult to overcome, and he could be competing with fellow left-handed hitters Luke Raley (26-years old) and Zach Reks (also 27 years old) for a spot on the 40-man roster.

Sheldon Neuse, the 26-year-old third baseman/second baseman acquired from the Oakland A’s in the Adam Kolarek trade, will have the opportunity to earn a bench spot as a right-handed hitter who had a 126 wRC+ with the A’s Triple-A team in 2019. And, not to overlook the Dodgers 25-year-old outfielder DJ Peters, who only needs to cut down on his strikeout rate to earn a spot on the Dodgers roster.

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Spring training for the veteran position players may be a tuneup, but for those competing for final spots on the active roster this will be an intense competition.

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