February 9th, 2021 at 8:30 am 
by 0799291000348 As the Dodgers 40-man roster is presently assembled, the 2021 average annual value (AAV) team payroll is projected at $237.8* million (including health & welfare benefits and arbitration salaries). That amount does not include re-signing free-agent third baseman Justin Turner (or his replacement) or an additional right-handed hitter, which has been at the top of Andrew Friedman’s to-do list.
During the 2020-2021 Hot Stove season, many baseball pundits and fans assumed that the Dodgers would stay below the current Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $210M to avoid the 12% surtax for payroll above that level. Now it appears that the Dodgers may exceed the threshold by $40M (or more), incurring a 42.5% surtax for every dollar above $250M.
There is an additional penalty for teams with payrolls at or above $250M in 2021 – their first draft pick in the next MLB entry draft is moved back ten spots with the associated reduction in their draft bonus pool. The Dodgers could see that penalty as more onerous than the surtax dollars and may have a self-imposed hard cap below the $250M level. If so, re-signing Turner will be next to impossible, unless the team can reduce payroll by trading players like David Price ($16M AAV), Joe Kelly ($8.33M), AJ Pollock ($12M), or Chris Taylor ($6.7M).
But what about future years? It appears that the Dodgers have been planning for the 2022-2023 roster payrolls for the last several years. Other than Mookie Betts’ record-setting 12-year contract in 2020, and Pollocks’ 5-year deal in 2019, the team has been negotiating two and three year deals with Trevor Bauer, Tommy Kahnle, Kelly, Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy, Taylor, and Blake Treinen. Reportedly, the team made two-year contract offers to Turner and free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna (signed by the Atlanta Braves for 4-years/$64M), as it looks forward to future payrolls.
So what does this mean for 2022 and 2023 payrolls?
After the 2021 season, the Dodgers will have six free agents with total AAV salaries of $81.03M: Kenley Jansen ($16M), Kelley ($8.33M), Kershaw ($31M), Corey Knebel ($5.25M), Corey Seager ($13.75M), and Taylor ($6.7M). The total 2022 payroll is currently projected at $124.6M, including the $45M owed to Bauer. The payroll could be even lower if the team sheds other contracts like Scott Alexander, Austin Barnes, and Dylan Floro, with replacements Caleb Ferguson, Keibert Ruiz, and a plethora of right-handed reliever prospects. Reducing payroll would align the team to aggressively participate in one of the best free-agent classes in MLB history.
In addition to its own free agents Kershaw and Seager, the 2021-2022 free agent class will include notable players like Cubs shortstop Javier Baez, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, and Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard.
It would be shocking if the Dodgers and Kershaw do not reach an agreement for a new contract to keep him with the team for the remainder of his playing career. Shortstop is a different issue. If the team does not re-sign Seager, they will likely target one of the other top shortstops – like Lindor or Story – with an AAV approaching $30M or higher.
After the 2022 season, the Dodgers have an additional six players eligible for free agency: Alexander, Barnes, Muncy, Price, and Kahnle, with a projected 2023 team payroll at $90.3M. The team has positioned itself well for 2023, the free-agent walk years for Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias. The team is likely planning for contract extensions for both players and for Walker Buehler, whose free agency walk year is 2024.
The 2023 MLB free-agent class is not projected to be as robust as 2022, but there are several players who may be of interest to the Dodgers, including Padres starting pitcher Mike Clevinger, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, and Nationals shortstop Trea Turner.
It is not a coincidence that the Dodgers payroll in 2022-2023 is well-positioned for contract extensions and free agency participation, as the team readies itself for future World Championships. Unfortunately, Justin Turner could be a necessary casualty for the team to achieve its roster plans for the short – and long – term. Whether the team is able to find enough payroll space to retain Turner will depend on its ability to jettison enough salary without damaging its competitive position for 2021.
Will Andrew Friedman find a way for JT to return? To be determined. But, if any baseball executive can do it, Friedman can.
* * *
* (All salary information courtesy of Cots Baseball Contracts)
* * * * * *
Posted in 
GREAT piece, Jesse! Thanks!
Plan B without JT
Right hand hitting 3B on the cheap
Franco
Gyrko
Todd frazier
Jake Lamb
Right handed outfield bats
Braun
Duvall
Pillar
Relief pichers still out there
rosenthal
shane green
What about Franco on the cheap say 3 mil platoons with Muncy and or Rios
I know Brauns a cheater but how bout a 5 mil deal for 1 yr of Ryan Braun
I like the Maikel Franco option. Dodgers tried Gyorko and he looked awful. Frazier could be a one year guy, but I would rather take a chance on the upside (and fielding) of Franco. I think Braun’s OF days are long gone — first base and DH type now — if any team would take him. I like Rosenthal (or Greene) better than Kelly IF there is a way to dump Kelly’s $8.33M on another team
Why not pay turner a 3 year 18 mil per year and defer 40 mil for the next 10 years that would free up a let of flexibility for the team. Just my thoughts.
I don’t know how the MLB CBA handles salary deferrals in determining a player’s AAV, can you explain what Turner’s AAV would be under that contract?
How bout a swap of Ruiz Joe Kelly and another prospect for Bryant from the Cubs.
Dodgers only increase salary by 10 mil.
Interesting proposal packaging the Dodgers no. 2 prospect with a bad contract like Kelly’s $8.33M. That might work. Will Friedman part with a no. 2 for a rental? Or, can he get a younger, less costly third baseman by packing Ruiz, Matt Beaty, and Mitchell White for the Marlins Brian Anderson who can also play the OF? I think Anderson’s 2021 salary is less than $4M.
No, the target for the Dodgers should be Alec Bohm. They might try a Gonsolin/Beatty swap and to get a counter from the Phils.
If they are looking to add a RH bat as it has been projected. Why would they trade a RH bat? Muncy makes 11 million or so, plus another 12 or so next season His bat and glove could be replaced by Gavin Lux. Kenley failed to earn anyone’s trust let alone his pay scale come time for the post season, so why not dangle him? Price is a big question mark and would have to elevate his game to be productive with all of the arms around him that are capable of under 4.00 ERA’s.
Just thinking out-loud…carry on. I enjoyed the article as always Jesse.
Excellent point about including right-handed hitters Pollock & Taylor. Very unlikely to happen when the team is looking to add more right-handed hitting. Muncy is considered one of the best offensive first basemen in MLB, so I don’t see the team trading him. I agree, trading Jansen would be a good move; but, at this point the team would likely have to pay more than half of his remaining salary for another team to take him.
Muncy has a big row to hoe due to his success. I agree it would be a longshot if they traded him. I’m thinking a pitcher or two are gonna fall ill in the Spring. And then that pitchers employer will need a valid replacement. One thing about Friedman that we should have learned by now is that he is a great evaluator of talent. So he could use prospects he deems better iff in another organization as leverage to get a team to take on money…I assume??? I value your imput mote then kine at this GM role playing stuff.
Great article. Make no mistake about it. The Dodgers will not worry about salary excess in both 2021 and 2022. They’ve got an excellent chance to reset in 2023, and depending upon “contract creativity” they could retain all of their superstars (Seager/Belly/Kershaw/Buehler and even Urias) and still dip under in 2023. That’s the target year. Creativity in the Kershaw/Seager 2022 contracts is the key to getting it done.
I love all of the positive energy.
The key here is can we unload Price or Kelly in a deal that clears space for JT to return.
Or is Price very valuable for 32 mil for 2 years.
I think we deal Joe Kelly and a big-time prospect or 2 for Bryant.
[…] Story continues […]
Would Garrett Cooper from the Marlins and Mickail Franco be possible replacements if we can’t sign JT
Yes. Perhaps only Gooper (or the Brewers’ Hiura) is necessary; an option that I have liked since JT became a free agent, move Will Smith to either 3b, or 2b, with Barnes and Ruiz catching, and add another RH bat.
i believe smith already proved he cant play third or second even in the minors. i shudder to think how much worse it could be at this level.
A fair point that his stats (58 total games) at third base were not good with an .891 FA. And, he might not ever be good there, but he is considered to be an exceptional athlete (played SS in high school) and I think he would become an average or better fielder at third (or second) is committed to the position switch. For comparison purposes, Justin Turner minor league fielding average at third base was .926. Nonetheless, you raise a fair point.