2020 National League Cy Young award winner Trevor Bauer is a Dodger … a very-highly-compensated Dodger.

Apparently, there is a physical to be taken and passed, contractual details to be documented by attorneys, and final approval from Major League Baseball. The team must then open a spot on their 40-man roster before the deal is finalized. Those details will be addressed in relatively short order, and the possibility of this deal falling apart lies somewhere beyond The Twilight Zone and The Outer Limits.

Bauer’s addition to the Dodgers 2021 starting rotation arguably makes them the best starting rotation in MLB, but at a cost never before seen in the business. For now, Bauer is at the top of the list for highest-paid MLB players for one season at $40 million. Mull that over for a moment; higher than the Angels Mike Trout ($37.1M), and the Yankees Gerrit Cole, Mets Jacob deGrom, and Nationals Max Scherzer (all at $36M). Bauer’s 2021 salary is 21.2% higher than the highest-paid year of Dodgers future Hall of Fame pitcher Clayton Kershaw ($33M). In 2022, Bauer’s salary will jump to $45M and be paid a whopping 36.4% more than Kershaw’s highest-paid season (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

Did the Dodgers blink after the San Diego Padres made significant improvements to their 2021 roster by adding starting pitchers Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and highly-touted South Korean middle infielder Ha-Seong Kim? After all, the Dodgers had lost several key players from their 2020 Championship roster in super-utility player Kiké Hernández (now with the Boston Red Sox), outfielder Joc Pederson (now a Chicago Cub), and team leader and fan-favorite Justin Turner still on the free-agent market with (reportedly) four teams bidding for his services – including the Dodgers. Was there a degree of panic by the Dodgers in their decision to outbid the New York Mets for Bauer (although for fewer years) – worried that they were in danger of being replaced by the Padres as the NL West’s best team?

We will never know the answer to those questions. Still, it’s hard to believe that Dodgers Chairman Mark Walter, President & CEO Stan Kasten, and Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman ‘caved-in’ to actions by another team. These are experienced, mature, professional baseball executives whose strategic plans are years ahead of others.

So, why did the Dodgers make Bauer the highest-paid player for 2021, and likely 2022? By consensus, Bauer was the top free-agent starting pitcher in the class, but was he worth a guaranteed $85M over the next two seasons? The pros and cons of that question would make for an interesting debate. His career statistics are OK, not remotely close to being worth that amount of money with a 3.90 ERA and a 19.9 WAR in seven seasons. His performances in the 2018 and 2020 seasons make a strong case that he should be considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB today. In 2018 Bauer’s ERA was 2.21, and he had a 5.8 WAR, which is elite status. After a so-so year in 2019 (4.48 ERA), Bauer was dominant in the pandemic shortened 2020 season with a 1.73 ERA (hence the NL Cy Young award), with an adjusted WAR of 6.75

Some context must be included when viewing Bauer’s 2020 stats. The abbreviated, regionalized season resulted in him making only 11 starts: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Pittsburgh Pirates. Only one of those teams (White Sox) were above the MLB average in the offensive categories OPS and OPS+. And, he only faced the White Sox one time. How well would he have performed against teams with strong offenses like the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, et al.?

Then there is the disquieting question about Bauer’s significant increase in spin rates over the last two seasons. In 2018, Bauer tweeted that he could increase his fastball’s spin rate by using pine tar, causing Twitter to explode. (That type of social media stuff never goes away). At the time, his fastball spin rate averaged just below 2400 rpm; two seasons later, his spin rate had increased by more than 400 rpm – apparently not a concern for the Dodgers, and perhaps a more common practice (by all teams) than baseball fans realize.

In today’s environment, a player’s on-field skills are not the only measure teams consider when deciding whether to add them to their team or not. Bauer’s social media adventures are well chronicled, to the point of him being accused of harassment. It is likely that the Dodgers, and perhaps MLB, have vetted Bauer about these issues. It would not be surprising if his contract includes specific penalty provisions for unacceptable behaviors, including social media.

Will Bauer be worth the two-year/$85 million he is guaranteed (assuming that he opts out of the $17 million for 2023)? Only time will tell. Using Fangraphs player value calculation ($8 million value for every WAR), Bauer must pitch to a 5 WAR or better in 2021, and at least a 5.6 WAR in 2022 for his value added to the team. If he reaches those performance levels, the Dodgers made an outstanding business decision and may have two more World Series trophies to display at Dodger Stadium.

If not, Andrew Friedman’s resume will take a hit.

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