January 17th, 2021 at 3:00 pm 
by Ron Cervenka When it was announced on Friday that 32-year-old future Hall of Fame infielder DJ LeMahieu had agreed to a six-year / $90 million free-agent contract to return to the New York Yankees, it immediately changed the dynamics for beloved 36-year-old Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner and even more so for his agent Greg Genske of VaynerBaseball Agency.
The LeMahieu signing clearly put the ball (no pun intended) back in Turner’s and Genske’s court to either reconsider their initial (and ludicrous) desire for a four-year free-agent deal with the Dodgers or anyone else looking for a veteran infielder, or risk going unsigned by anyone.
To be brutally honest and meaning absolutely no disrespect whatsoever to the extremely popular Southern California native, one-time All-Star, and former NLCS MVP, it is unlikely that there is a team out there willing to give Turner anything beyond a two-year free-agent contract (or two-year contract with a team option for a third year and performance bonuses) – period.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
Although Turner has an excellent 12-year career slash line of .292 / .369 / .469 / .838, he would be 40 years old during the final season of a four-year deal; not ridiculously old, especially if the National League adopts a permanent designated hitter as is expected, but certainly up there when you consider that the Dodgers have several much-younger and very talented players currently on their 40-man roster and several more exceptionally talented young infield prospects down on the farm.
All of this said, it is hard to believe that Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman would not be willing to listen to a reasonable offer from JT and his agent to re-sign with the Dodgers. However, that reasonable offer, in all likelihood, will not go beyond two years with, at best, an option for a third year.
It’s your move, JT.
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This is a weird situation. DJLM got %60 of his desired AAV. But the length boosted aggregate value. He got less AAV than Turner did 4 years ago with his 4/$64 deal. At this point, if Turner wants 4 years, it would be something like $32-40. Teams don’t pay for past performance like they used to. They pay for projected future value. Turner hit pretty well, last season, but staying on the field has been an issue too. I’m still irked they didn’t sign Ha-Seong Kim…
None of this would have been an issue if they had signed Kim.
I still like the talent the Dodgers have down on the farm, though.
First, a nit — at this point I don’t believe LeMahieu’s career is HOF worthy. Other than one season with the Rockies he was a terrific fielder and a below average run producer playing half his games in a very hitter friendly park. I believe Turner deserves $15M – $16M AAV per season for two guaranteed years, plus a vesting option for third year. Friedman and the agent can get creative in how to distribute the money for tax purposes — perhaps a big signing bonus that is spread over life of contract, and a buyout if vesting option isn’t met.
LeMahieu is a three-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, two-time Silver Slugger, and a two-time batting champion. He may not be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but I think he gets in.
I do, however, agree on the hitter-friendly ballpark thing. LOVE the ambiance of Coors Field, but as a ballpark to play major league baseball at, it sucks!
HOF’er or not (at this time) makes for an interesting debate. No doubt LeMahieu has had 1.4 awesome seasons with the Yankees, a ballpark tailor made for a right field hitter. Overall, his career slash line is .305/.357/.430 with 85 home runs; very good numbers, but his career wRC+ is 100 — major league average. His wRC+ for each season in Colorado: 81, 67, 66, 91, 130, 94, 87. 130 is the anomaly. To make the HOF will require 4 more seasons of the numbers he put up for the Yankees. In 2020 LeMahieu’s average home run distance was 360′ – only the Angels David Fletcher (359′) and Cardinals Kolten Wong (353′) were shorter. In 2019 it was somewhat better at 386′ with only six players shorter distance. Why is that important? Because 75% of balls he puts into play are to CF and RF — in Dodger Stadium balls that go for home runs in Yankee Stadium are outs. In his career less than 32% of balls put into play are considered “hard hit” – 54% are medium. For comparison, 48% of Justin Turners balls in play are “hard hit” and 40% are “medium.” For me, I am glad the Dodgers did not sign him as I think his offensive stats would have returned to Rockies levels.
Two years for Turner and that’s it.
Two plus vesting option for third
I think Andrew would jump all over two-plus. I also think that Genske very much knows this and is merely hoping that some team (any team) will offer JT three-plus (ain’t gonna happen) and that they can always fall back on Friedman’s two-plus offer.
I also think that if Genske and Turner wait much longer, that ship will have sailed.
1000% spot on Ron. Cubs call and tell Dodgers they can have Bryant for Pollock and Keibert Ruiz then Turner is SOL. Or Reds agree to trade Suarez for Lux, Rios, and White; or Cleveland, A’s. Turner and Genske should not overplay their hand, they are not the smartest guys in the room.
The good news is, I don’t think we’ve heard the last of this.
Ron
As soon as I heard what DJ got I said Turner now can forget 4 yrs and certainly not 20 per. He’s older and without the DH being a sure thing in the NL, how much playing time does JT get vs how much time missed.
If JT was smart he would take the best 2 year deal he can get from the Dodgers even 2 at 30 mil.
Then hopefully the NL has DH and he can finish his last yr or 2 with the dodgers as a dh.
Exactly how I see it.
👍👊✋
Free up’da Moneyman
Free it up and sign J.T.!
Ooh, you’re making me crazy
Andy, tell me you still love my swing
Ooh, you gotsta-gotsta give me big money
It’s not like I’m asking for years times 5
Ooh, quit making me fish
.
My apologies to Queen and everyone else…