Major League Baseball fans are keenly aware that the pace of 2021 free agency has been proceeding at glacial speed, with star players like preeminent catcher J.T. Realmuto, 2020 National League Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, and 2020 American League batting champion DJ LeMahieu still on the market with just over five weeks until the opening of Spring Training. Along with outfielder George Springer and third baseman Justin Turner, these players are reportedly asking for multi-year contracts that will range in average annual value from $20 million to more than $30 million. Even wealthy teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are pushing back on those types of contracts after playing a contracted schedule in 2020 (60-regular season games), with cardboard cutouts in seats and a collective bargaining agreement that expires in 11-months.

But what about the other free agents who are looking to continue their MLB careers in 2021? According to Fangraphs’ free-agent tracker, there are 249 veteran players still on the market; 134 of those players are pitchers. Why aren’t more of these players under contract and preparing to head to spring training? Perhaps the answer lies in a surprising stat; only 64 of the 249 free agents are projected to achieve a WAR (Wins Above Average) of 1 or higher in 2021 – 44-position players and 20-pitchers.

When considering a players WAR, Fangraphs ‘rule-of-thumb’ chart provides a simple-but-effective description for fans:

It is reasonable to assume that MLB teams are even more motivated to sign veteran players to minor league contracts this year with invitations to spring training (non-rostered invitations – NRIs) to compete with minor league prospects to fill the last roster spots on the team.

What about the Dodgers free agents projected WAR for 2021?

• Justin Turner (third base) – 3.2
• Joc Pederson (outfielder) – 2.4
• Kiké Hernández (utility) – 1.1
• Alex Wood (pitcher) – 1.1
• Jake McGee (reliever) – .3
• Pedro Baez (reliever) – negative .2

Based upon these projections:

• Even at age 36, a projected 3.2 WAR for Turner supports an AAV approaching $20 million for one year, but the question is total value over how many years.
• It is understandable why Joc is negotiating with other teams for a regular position.
• Kiké determining his market value to other teams, but he may have more value to the Dodgers.
• Alex Wood seemingly has value as a role pitcher, but the Dodgers are so deep in pitching that he will likely be pitching elsewhere in 2021
• Jake McGee will likely find a reliever role for a pitching strapped team.
• Pedro Baez may be a NRI for a team, but not the Dodgers.

Hopefully, the Chicago White Sox signing of Liam Hendriks will be the ice breaker for the free agency class of 2021.

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