Dodgers fans readily recognize the name Branch Rickey, the General Manager who was the impetus for breaking Major League Baseball’s color barrier. While Rickey’s finest achievement was signing Jackie Robinson to a major league contract on April 10, 1947, he was a supreme innovator of the game and well ahead of his time.

But the advice the Dodgers may be considering today is that which Rickey advocated some eight decades ago: “Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.” Of course, those were the days before free agency. The phrase should now be amended to include allowing a player to leave a year too early.

Dodgers fans, including the writer, are having a difficult time wrapping their minds around the possibility that Justin Turner may have played his last game for the team. Turner has been a fan-favorite since joining the team in 2014 and becoming the regular third baseman in 2015 when he replaced 36-year old Juan Uribe. But, Branch Rickey’s wisdom is as relevant today as it was more than 80-years ago; perhaps it is time to move on from Justin Turner, who, coincidentally, is the same age (36) as the player he replaced six seasons ago.

Will replacing Turner be a problem? The answer is an emphatic ‘Yes!’ Fangraphs statistical modeling is projecting Turner to play 130 games in 2021, slash .282/.372/.480/.852, with a 124 wRC+ (comparable to Nolan Arenado’s 2019 wRC+ of 128), and achieve a 3.2 WAR (almost $26 million equivalent value to the team). Turner is also a respected clubhouse leader and active in the local community.

Another Branch Rickey quote: “Problems are the price you pay for progress.”

Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has said that the team determines a future value for their players and those they may acquire through free agency or trade. The team will not go beyond that value to either trade for or sign a player. We do not know the value the Dodgers have placed on Turner’s future performance, but going beyond a two-year contract will be a roll of the dice; and as a baseball executive, Friedman is more like a chess player than a gambler.

Using the same Fangraphs modeling, what are the projected 2021 stats for players mentioned as potential replacements for Turner?

• Semien’s value lies in his defensive versatility on the infield, not a need for the 2021 Dodgers.
• Suarez projections were surprisingly low, and considering the players/prospects the Reds would likely expect in return, a trade seems unlikely.
• LeMahieu’s 111 wRC+ might surprise you unless you looked at his years of below-average offensive output with the Rockies. Seemingly, Fangraphs is projecting that he will fall back closer to previous norms.
• Arenado’s offensive projection is surprising in that it appears the model is placing significant weight on his 2020 performance when he was injured, but for consistency in these comparisons, it is what it is.
• Statistically, Bryant is a bigger and younger version of Turner. But, trading for him would be a one-year rental as his agent is Scott Boras.
• Torres is a terrific, right-handed hitter whose best defensive position is either second base or third base. If the Yankees re-sign LeMahieu for second base, then a trade of Torres for Gavin Lux (and others) could make sense for both teams.
• Chapman checks all of the boxes for the Dodgers – a right-handed, power-hitting third baseman whose defense is comparable to Arenado. But he is only in his first year of salary arbitration and unavailable in trade.
• Ramirez is the most intriguing third-base replacement possibility for the Dodgers. Although Ramirez is signed to a team-friendly contract, the Indians may not want to exercise his $11 million 2022, option, or his $13 million 2023 option. What would it take for the Dodgers to acquire Cleveland’s All-Star third baseman? A lot! Perhaps a package that includes: middle infielder Lux, catcher Keibert Ruiz, starting pitcher Josiah Gray, and infielder/outfielder Matt Beaty.

  *  *  *  

As the calendar moves closer to the start of 2021 spring training, it becomes more likely that the Dodgers will have a new third baseman in the lineup on opening day. In the long-run, that may be the best decision for the team – “…a year too early rather than a year too late.”

  *  *  *  *  *  *