As of Friday morning, the Dodgers have neither re-signed third baseman Justin Turner, acquired a replacement third baseman, nor acquired the additional right-handed hitter that Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman identified as “a team-need” in November 2020.

Nonetheless, the rumor du jour for baseball journalists and bloggers is the team’s alleged pursuit of 2020 NL Cy Young pitcher Trevor Bauer. Never mind that the team has six returning starting pitchers (Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, David Price, Julio Urias),  three pitchers on the 40-man roster with starting experience in the minors (Victor Gonzalez, Brusdar Graterol, Mitchell White), top-rated pitching prospect Josiah Gray, and highly regarded Edwin Uceta ready to contribute, the pundits think the Dodgers may pay the 30-year-old Bauer more than $30,000,000 per season to strengthen their starting rotation.

Pardon the Forest Gump paraphrase, but Bauer’s pitching stats are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get. His ERA ranged from 4.18 to 6.06 in his first six MLB seasons, then in 2018 Bauer had a significant breakthrough, pitching to a 2.21 ERA, winning 12 of 18 decisions for the AL Cleveland team, finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting. Then, in 2019, he returned to previous seasons’ norm, pitching to a cumulative 4.48 ERA with Cleveland and the Cincinnati Reds. In the abbreviated 2020 season, Bauer was limited to 11-starts, winning 5 of 9 decisions with a 1.73 ERA.

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Author’s Note

An interesting tidbit to mull over when considering whether to sign Bauer: In 2018, his fastball spin rate was 2,373 rpm. Two years later, it increased to 2,824 (19%). Bauer said in 2018 he knew for a fact that he could add 400 rpm to his fastball by using pine tar. Draw your own conclusions).

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Based on Bauers stats, does he deserve a $30 million+ per season contract?

If the Dodgers are interested in adding another starting pitcher, what other free agents may they consider?

What about another left-handed starter? When healthy, 32-year old, 6’-4”/227-pound James Paxton has a better career record than Bauer; Keywords: “when healthy” and “left-handed.” Paxton recently pitched in front of MLB scouts, registering 94 mph on his fastball (without spring training), apparently showing that he indeed is healthy … for now. FanGraphs projects Paxton to sign a two-year contract at a $15 million AAV. But do the Dodgers want another left-hander, even if healthy?

Or 30-year-old right-hander Jake Odorizzi, whose pitching arsenal is comparable to Bauer’s but a tick below in velocity. While his career ERA is 3.92 compared to Bauer’s 3.88, it has come with consistency without ever coming close to Bauer’s 2018 and 2020 performances. For the Dodgers, Odorizzi would be a number four or five starter who would consistently take the mound, eat innings, and provide the team with quality starts. Fangraphs projects a 3-year/$39 million contract ($13M AAV) for Jake.

A higher risk, perhaps higher reward pitcher that the Dodgers may consider is 28-year old Taijuan Walker, at one time the Seattle Mariners number one prospect, who has yet to achieve his immense potential. In August 2018, Walker underwent Tommy John surgery, rehabbing in the 2019 season except for one inning pitched at the end of the season. In 2020 Walker started 11-games, pitching to a 2.70 ERA and reaching the same pitch velocities he had pre-Tommy John surgery. As all Dodgers fans know, the team does not shy away from pitchers who have undergone TJ surgery and like players with top skills who may be late bloomers. FanGraphs projects Walker to receive a 2 year/$18 million contract ($9M AAV).

What do you think, Dodgers fans? Does the team need to add another starting pitcher?

If yes, should they sign Trevor Bauer? James Paxton? Jake Odorizzi? Or, Taijuan Walker?

My pick? I like the high upside/lower costing Taijuan Walker.

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