December 6th, 2020 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 We kicked-off the 2020-21 Dodgers Hot Stove Chatter discussing the pros and cons of acquiring pricy third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies or the one-year rental of Chicago Cubs third baseman/left fielder Kris Bryant. We will conclude this Hot Stove category by considering other hitter options for the Dodgers 2021 roster.
Rather than take the time to consider any further options to replace third baseman Justin Turner, we will proceed with this segment under the premise that Turner will re-sign with the Dodgers. Nonetheless, the 2021 team must replace the offense lost if either – or both – Joc Pederson and Kiké Hernandez leave via free agency. Both of these hitters were most valuable to the team in platoon roles; Pederson has a career wRC+ of 128 (28% above the MLB average) against right-handed pitchers, while Hernandez is not far behind at 120 when facing left-handed pitchers. Finding hitters, whether internal or external, to replace those runs created will be a challenge. For example, free-agent left fielder Kyle Schwarber (Cubs) has a 123 wRC+ when facing right-handers, and Franciso Lindor (Indians) has a 125 wRC+ hitting against left-handers.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
Re-signing both Pederson and Hernandez is the easy solution, but unlikely considering the Dodgers have other contract issues that will substantially increase the current payroll:
- Re-signing Turner
- Seven players eligible for contract arbitration (Austin Barnes, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Dylan Floro, Adam Kolarek, Corey Seager, and Julio Urías)
- Contractual pay increases for Kenley Jansen, AJ Pollock, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor
- Pay increases for Matt Beaty, Victor Gonzalez, Tony Gonsolin, Brusdar Graterol, Dustin May, Edwin Rios, and Will Smith
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Replacing Joc and Kiké
Finding an outfielder to platoon with AJ Pollock in left field may be as straight forward as a spring training competition between currently rostered left-hand-hitting outfielders Matt Beaty, Luke Raley, and Zach Reks; with the possible inclusion of infielder Gavin Lux and right-handed-hitting DJ Peters also in the mix.
What about free-agent outfielders? There is only one left-hand hitting free-agent outfielder with career offensive splits equivalent to Pederson – Kyle Schwarber (Chicago Cubs non-tender). Although Joc is a much better defensive player, MLB Trade Rumors projected Schwarber and Pederson to receive contracts in the ballpark of $9 million per year. Paying the same amount of money for a lesser player makes no sense, so scratch Schwarber off the list of possibilities.
Should the Dodgers trade for an outfielder to replace Joc? The Tampa Bay Rays’ Austin Meadows has a career 139 wRC+ against RH pitching, and the New York Mets Brandon Nimmo is close behind with 133. Meadows is not yet arbitration-eligible, so the Rays are not likely to trade him unless overwhelmed by a trade. But the Rays are desperate for a catcher. Would they trade Meadows for Keibert Ruiz and another outfielder like Matt Beaty? Would the Dodgers trade Ruiz for another left hand hitting outfielder?
What about Nimmo? Predicted to be paid close to $6 million in 2021, what would the Mets want in return for their outfielder? With second baseman Robinson Cano suspended for the 2021 season, the Mets might be interested in Chris Taylor for second base, a pitcher like Dennis Santana, and outfielder/infielder Matt Beaty. If the Dodgers traded Taylor, then they would be in a perfect position to re-sign Kiké Hernandez.
(Video capture courtesy of LA Dodgers)
Or, the Dodgers could take an entirely different approach by trading right hand hitting outfielder AJ Pollock ($12 million AAV), re-signing Joc Pederson, and adding free-agent outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who has scorched left-hand pitching at a 137 wRC+ rate in his career. Pederson, with a $9 million AAV, and Renfroe (projected $3 million) would solve the left-field platoon at no additional payroll cost to the Dodgers.
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Possible 2021 Dodgers lineup:
- C – Will Smith
- 1b – Max Muncy
- 2b – Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux
- 3b – Justin Turner
- SS – Corey Seager
- LF – Joc Pederson/Hunter Renfroe
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
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What do you think, Dodgers fans? How would you replace Joc Pederson and Kiké Hernandez? Internally? Free agents? Trade(s)? Or would you re-sign Joc and Kiké? What moves would you make if you were in Andrew Friedman‘s chair?
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Posted in 
RF Betts/Bellinger
CF Bellinger/Taylor
LF Pollack/Taylor/Lux/Beaty/Rios
This is approximately how they stack up now, with the second player being the backup in the event of injury.
I don’t imagine too much activity for the outfield. I’d bet they’ll get Lux some time on the grass to get him at bats. Brining back Kiké and/or taking a gamble on David Dahl would be nice to back up all 3 OF positions. Betts and Bellinger aren’t going anywhere. Muncy is at first, so Cody probably won’t be there any time soon. So left field is a bit of a mixture. Despite his bounce back, I doubt anyone trades for Pollack. He’s a good fit for LF, or CF/RF in a pinch anyways. They’ll probably want to get Beaty, and Rios at bats somewhere too, so LF seems like it could be a revolving door in a similar way 3B projects to be (even if Turner is re-signed).
I have a feeling any major moves for 2021 season would come at the trade deadline. Position player group is deep and versatile as is. Although I’d love to see them sign Ha-Seong Kim because of 2B, SS, 3B questions after 2021 season.
I too hope the Dodgers can sign Kim for the infield which would expedite Lux moving to the outfield. The speed and athleticism of Lux, Bellinger, and Betts in the OF could be one of the best defensive groups in MLB today. I think Reks has the offensive talent to be a regular OF’er.
I think competition will be between Recks and Raley and more ABs for AJ in LF. McKinstry takes over for Kike. This is something that doesn’t need to be fixed. The only concern for the offense is a full time RH Bat in the No 3 hole. If that’s Turner, than so be it.
Beaty is so redundant. Rios is superior with the glove and with the bat and plays the same positions better. They should consider trading Beaty for a RH bench bat and sign a couple more relievers and of course, that RH Bat.
I agree with you about Beaty, he is more likely a trade chip for the Dodgers than a bench piece. First base has been Rios best defensive position as a professional, but he has also played 30+ games in the OF in the minors. I am not sold on Rios as a defensive third baseman — he was much better in 2020 than 2019, but still well below ML average (statistically). I think Reks is a legit hitter against all pitching, with power; and, his defense in the OF is quite good, plus he has handled first base in the minors.
Our solution is mostly in house; and his name is Edwin Rios. He can handle LF just fine. Give him a bunch of reps in spring training for both third and LF. In the meantime, tell him right now to get ready. Have some intensive defensive training prior to spring training. He also may learn to hit lefties if given a chance. Think about resigning Kike if necessary for utility. Beatty is a good trade candidate.
I am not as big a fan of Rios as many are (hope I am wrong), but his 30% strike out rate in the minors (1,670 at bats) and 28% rate as a Dodger is a concern. His best defensive position is first base — shift Muncy to second base (statistically his best defensive position), or third base?
Is G lux ready? Then let CT go make his money
Sorry for delay in responding. I think Michael Busch has supplanted Lux as future Dodgers second baseman. Lux either moves to the OF (I think he would be a great left fielder), or is a trade chip.
I kinda lean towards the idea that Lux is expendable, the kid can hit though. I also agree that CT3 is a better hitter then Kike, albeit they both slump from time to time. The overpay on Pollock would be hearsay if you ask me. Not that I’m an expert on the subjects, just my thoughts.
I am in complete disagreement with you guys on Kiki/ct3. CT3 plays everywhere well and is a way better hitter than Kiki. I would keep CT3 and let Kiki walk.
Ct3 should have been given the starting LF job or platoon with Joc P and we could have avoided the overpay for Pollock.
If we can’t sign
100% in agreement with you about Pollock/Taylor as the left fielder. Why I would sign Kiké and trade Taylor (some of this is repetitious). I think the regular second baseman in 2021 will be one of: Kim, Lux, Muncy, or perhaps a trade for Javier Baez (Cubs instead of Bryant), or Gleyber Torres (Yankees) which makes Taylor a one year utility player who the Dodgers will not make a $18.9M qualifying offer; and, at 31 the Dodgers will not sign him to an extension. So, I would re-sign Kiké as the super utility player who is a much better defensive player than Taylor at every position. I think the Dodgers could acquire a couple of nice prospects from a team like the Reds, Brewers, or Indians (if they trade Lindor) in return for Taylor.