November 30th, 2020 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 According to Wikipedia, the term ‘Hot stove league’ dates from nineteenth-century small-town America when, during the winter, people gathered at the general store/post office, sat around an iron pot-belly stove, and discussed the passing parade, baseball, the weather, politics, and current events of the day. More recently, the term describes the discussions, speculation, and predictions bandied about by baseball fans, journalists, and talk show commenters to fill the time between the end of the World Series and the start of the following spring training.
(Photo courtesy of Wikipedia)
So far, the 2020-21 MLB chatter is more akin to a cold storage locker, with little for fans to discuss other than some wild suppositions of baseball journalists trying to fill articles or on-air time. While some of the predictions seem completely implausible, others seem more credible as the team tunes-up the roster for the 2021 season.
So, let’s gather around the figurative pot-bellied stove, ignite the kindling, and crank-up the heat on the Dodgers Hot Stove chatter. No trade or free-agent signing is out-of-bounds; just state your case with facts, pro or con, why the team should sign a certain player or trade players that will put the team in the best position to win the 2021 World Championship.
We will kick-off the debate with a recent prediction by former MLB general manager and current MLB analyst Jim Bowden that the Dodgers will acquire Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado before December 25, 2020. The 29-year old Newport Beach, CA native is one of the best all-around third basemen to ever play the game and will enter the 2021 season as a five-time All-Star, eight-time Gold Glove winner, four-time Platinum Glove winner, and a three-time Silver Slugger. He is under contract with Colorado through the 2026 (age 35) season and is guaranteed $199 million, with a contract opt-out option after the 2021 season.
(Photo credit – Isaiah J. Downing)
However, Arenado recently stated publicly that he has been “disrespected” by Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich and wants to play for a winning team.
Arenado played the entire 2020 season after injuring his left shoulder in the fifth game. In the 2019 season, he had a 122 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) against right-handed pitching and raked 144 when facing left-handers. As one might expect from a player whose home games are at mile-high Coors Field, his home and away splits are significant, but he is still a better than average run producer (108 wRC+) on the road.
But trading for Arenado comes with a lot of hurdles to overcome:
- His $32.5M Average Annual Value (AAV) is higher than Clayton Kershaw ($31M) and Mookie Betts ($30.4M);
- He can opt-out of his contract after the 2021 season (although that is very unlikely);
- He has a full no-trade clause (although he might waive that provision to join the Dodgers);
- The Rockies will demand a substantial return to trade Arenado, especially to NL West Division rival Dodgers; and,
- Justin Turner would not return to the Dodgers.
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How the Dodgers could clear the obstacles to acquire Arenado:
- Payroll – By trading AJ Pollock to another team for prospects, payroll would decrease by $12M AAV for the next two seasons. After the 2021 season, Kenley Jansen ($16M AAV), Joe Kelly ($8.3M), and Chris Taylor ($6.7M) are free agents. Allowing all three to leave reduces Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll by $31M. Bottom line, the Dodgers could find a way to take on Arenado’s contract, sign Corey Seager to an extension, and re-sign Kershaw.
- Trade package – third baseman Edwin Rios, outfielder DJ Peters, catcher Keibert Ruiz, and top pitching prospect Josiah Gray would likely be enough to obtain Arenado. With prospects Kody Hoese (third base/first base/ left field), Michael Busch (second base/first base), Diego Cartaya (catcher), and Bobby Miller (pitcher), the Dodgers have the trade capital to make this deal. (Note: Arenado would have to waive his no-trade and opt-out clauses for the Dodgers to trade this package of players).
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Should the Dodgers in fact land Arenado, their potential 2021 lineup might look something like this:
- C – Will Smith
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Gavin Lux
- 3B – Arenado
- SS – Corey Seager
- LF – Chris Taylor
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- Bench: Austin Barnes, Zach McKinstry, Kiké Hernandez (if re-signed), Zach Reks
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A trade for Arenado is possible, but not probable – just too many obstacles.
What do you think, Dodgers fans? Would you trade for Arenado? If yes, how would you structure the trade and payroll?
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Posted in 
GREAT piece, Jesse!
If Turner does indeed leave, as I expect he will, landing Arenado would be HUGE! … although I do not see it happening.
I see Rios and Beaty splitting time at 3B in ’21.
If Turner signs elsewhere I expect the Dodgers to find another RH hitting infielder. I like Beaty’s LH bat, but his glove only works in LF. I really like the idea of signing the South Korean infielder Kim (who is being posted today) who can play 2b, 3b, and SS. Another possibility is to sign Todd Frazier for one year to platoon with Rios at third base. After 2021 Kris Bryant and possibly Arenado are free agent third basemen. Or, trade for Kris Bryant now (next topic for Dodgers Hot Stove Chatter).
Arenado: Dodgers Fans’ White Whale! That trade proposal is probably reasonable for both sides. And given the economics, Nolan may be willing to wave his opt out. He’d make the team better, but that contract is massive for a guy coming off an injury. I think waiting until next off-season would be the time to hunt for Nolan. If he has a good year and opts out, only take money and forfeiting a draft pick to sign. If he has a bad year, he’s not likely to be worth the contract, but won’t opt out. Let him stay in Colorado if that happens.
As mentioned in the comments Ha-Seong Kim could be a great fit. At only 25 his contract will be his upswing years, not the downswing years like Arenado. I’d love to see an infield of Muncy at 1st, Lux at 2nd, Kim at SS and Seager (if willing with an extension) at 3B.
I think Arenado will be traded before the 2021 season, but not to the Dodgers; just too many obstacles. I think Atlanta is in position to make a very good trade package to Colorado, and the Rockies may be willing to retain some of Arenado’s salary (which they would not likely do for the Dodgers). The Washington Nationals, and St. Louis Cardinals could also make a deal for Arenado. From what I have read about Kim, and reviewing the projections for his MLB stats, he is definitely worth pursuing. Kim would immediately become the heir apparent to Corey Seager (if Corey leaves via free agency), or he becomes the second or third baseman if Corey signs an extension.
Keep it simple stupid
Sign Turner same salary, hopefully he shares third base with Rios. ARenado is way too high priced.
AMEN! Preaching to the choir. My only concern, a team like the Braves overpay Turner to take him away from Dodgers while filling an immediate need on their infield. St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals are in a similar situation, and of course the Blue Jays have been very aggressive as they intend to compete for the AL East next season.
Dodger pitching should be fantastic.
Imagine if Price is added to
CK Buehler Urias May.
Pen should be outstanding also.
Departures
Kiki Joc P 2021
Jansen 2022
Lots of payroll leaving
To keep Seager Belly and Buehler.
I am not as enthusiastic about the Dodgers bullpen as you — at this point. But faith in Friedman fixing that area before spring training
I’m thinking they pass on Kiki and use his money to get a guy like Brad Hand make him the probable closer, then use KJ in spots he can succeed in and V Gonzo Graterol Floro and Gonsolin with Kalorek and maybe a guy like Mcgee would round out a good solid pen.
JT will be back and really valuable if the NL adopts the DH
Put Pollock in the deal to Colorado, remove Peters and I think you’re close. The Dodgers are not going to take all of his money and give them that type of a prospect haul. That’s not the way Friedman does things. With the financial shape the Rockies are in they don’t have the leverage and there are very few teams they can even make a deal with. Do you think the Cardinals would take on $199 million in this economy and deal away that type of prospect haul?
I think you are correct. I think he is better defensively than Turner but not really a better hitter. Those Coors field number are inflated. Way too many atbats with men in scoring position.
If ARenado was a free agent right now or a yr from now he is not getting that contract. No way
The only way Arenado opts out of the contract is if he has a monster season in 2021 and believes that he can come close to making the same money while playing for a more competitive MLB team. The Rockies best option is to get the best deal possible in trade for Arenado, and if Trevor Story will not sign an extension then trade him as well, then rebuild with the prospects obtained in both deals. Trade Charlie Blackmon as well. Blow up the team, get a better GM, and start over.
Including Pollock would be ideal, but I don’t see the Rockies taking back that contract. Cardinals (or Braves) will take on $199M in contract, but I think the Rockies would be amenable to paying some of the contract for those teams when they will not do so for the Dodgers. I believe the Rockies are petrified with the fear of trading Arenado to the Dodgers period, and even worse to be paying some of his salary for the second most valuable franchise in MLB. IF the Dodgers were to acquire Arenado it will have to be an overwhelming offer of players/prospects for the Rockies to agree. As I noted, such a trade is possible, not probable, as there are too many obstacles to overcome.
The Braves wouldn’t even spend the money to add Lance Lynn at the deadline. They just spent money on Morton and Smyley. Freeman will need an extension soon. I don’t see them adding 199 million. The Rockies just released Dahl over $2.6 million and are at the bottom of the division looking up. They’re in no position to take lesser deals because of an intradivision thing.
Fine points
Dodgers adding David Price is like making a major trade/free agent SP aquisition.
Fix the pen. Need to add a Lefty and a righty or agree to make Urias the closer.
Jt back make us whole. Let Kiki and Joc P walk .
Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now.
Love to sign Seager but if he goes free agent the Dodgers will have multiple options and maybe back to back Championship s under our belt.
Love the position we are in.
Yes indeed, David Price could be a huge addition to the 2021 Dodgers. Missing the 2020 season may have been the best thing that could have happened for Price as he should be 100% healthy in spring training.