Before the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was the grandmaster at utilizing his bullpen based on specific roles and what inning it was, leading up to ‘California Love’ time, when Dodgers All-Star closer Kenley Jansen was called upon to save the games like clockwork.
But all of that changed in 2020 when COVID-19 protocols required relief pitchers to face a minimum of three batters (except to end an inning). The idea, of course, was to speed up the game, and it’s hard to argue that it did not, even if only by several minutes.
But what it also did was take away one of Dave Roberts’ most valuable trump cards – his oft-used LOOGY (Left-handed One Out Guy) – of which he had several but especially 31-year-old left-hander Adam Kolarek, who basically made his living as a LOOGY.
Not anymore.
In addition to taking away his LOOGY, the COVID-19 protocols also forced Roberts to eliminate – or at least modify – specific roles of his bullpen arms. No longer did you hear terms like “long man” or “short man” (including LOOGYs). Oh sure, there were still “set-up men” and, of course, the crucial “closer” role, but even these assignments were frequently shared during the 2020 regular season and especially during the postseason. Instead, Roberts was forced to use his bullpen based on percentages – i.e., the number of left-handed batters and right-handed batters due up, which opposing managers exploited regularly with pinch hitters.
Although fewer pitching changes denied television audiences of highly-coveted commercials (yeah, right), the end result was the Dodgers winning their first World Series championship in 32 years. In other words, it worked, and there is no reason to believe that it won’t continue to work in the future. As they say: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
However, (and you had to know a however was coming), by every indication, many – if not most – of the COVID-19 forced protocols will, in all likelihood, continue to be used going forward, coronavirus notwithstanding; in particular, the three-batter minimum rule. As such, one has to believe that Roberts will continue to play the lefty/righty numbers game and let the pinch-hitter chips fall where they may. Then again, it’s hard to argue with success, right?
That being said, one has to believe that Jansen will no longer be the Dodgers automatic closer, especially after his struggles during the 2020 season and with guys named Blake Treinen, Dylan Floro, and Brusdar Graterol also available in the ‘pen, along with a bevy of left-handers.
To his credit and overshadowed by said struggles, Jansen was actually quite effective as the Dodgers closer in 2020. In fact, of his 13 save opportunities, Jansen blew only two of them. The problem, of course, is that two blown saves in an abbreviated 60-game season are the equivalent of (approximately) six blown saves during a full 162-game season, hence the harsh criticism he received for those two blown saves. Ironically, Jansen led all of baseball with 24 games finished in 2020, including those 13 save situations.
Even though 24-year-old Dodgers left-hander Julio Urías made one relief appearance during the 2020 regular season (with 10 starts) and six relief appearances in the postseason (with two starts), he figures to be a lock in the Dodgers starting rotation in 2021.
When all is said and done, it’s hard to argue with success. And here again, the success that Dave Roberts’ bullpen enjoyed in 2020 was based (almost) entirely on results, not roles.
Play Ball!
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2020 was definitely reflective of the idea that bullpens are “fungible”. Hard to predict how relievers will perform year to year, given small sample sizes and high leverage situations. It’s wonderful it worked so well this season. Crazy to think had Jansen not blown those two saves they’d have had a .750 winning percentage.
Losing Treinen, Baez, Wood, and McGee to FA and Ferguson to TJ suggests a lot of change is coming. Jansen, Kelly, Gonzalez, Graterol, Floro and Gonsolin (I don’t think there is much reason for him to pitch in minors/alternative sight at this point) is a reasonable start. My guess is they’ll sign another veteran to a minor league deal for starter depth to go with JGray. The bullpen market is likely to be depressed, given nobody claimed Hand for $10 million (crazy the Phillies or Angels didn’t jump at the chance.) I think signing Hand AND Hendricks would be the best way to upgrade the whole pitching staff somehow.
“Necessity is the Mother of invention”
Dodgers may have found their future closer in 2020 — Victor Gonzalez. He does not have the velocity of Graterol, but his location, movement, and 4-pitch mix sets him apart as a potential closer.
Works for me.