November 3rd, 2020 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 The Dodgers have seven players who qualified for free agency after the final out of the 2020 World Series: Pedro Báez, Kiké Hernández, Jake McGee, Joc Pederson, Blake Treinen, Justin Turner, and Alex Wood. An eighth, Jimmy Nelson, is also a free agent after the team declined their $2 million option for 2021.
Who will return, and who will be wearing another team’s uniform on Opening Day 2021?
Pitchers
- Pedro Báez (reliever): A power reliever for the Dodgers early in his career, now a veteran middle reliever having pitched in 355 games with a 3.03 ERA, and 1.096 WHIP. Pedro will be 33-years old at the start of the 2021 season; his fastball velocity has declined by 3.5 mph since 2015, and his 6.9 strikeout rate per 9 innings was a career-low in 2020. Dodgers are loaded with young power arms in the organization, and unlikely to re-sign Pedro.
- Jake McGee (reliever): 34-year old lefty who still has a plus fastball. Dodgers signed him to a minimum contract after the Colorado Rockies released him on July 17, 2020. The Dodgers pitching coaches all but eliminated the slider from Jake’s pitching arsenal with outstanding results, averaging a career-high 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched in 2020. Team is thin in left-handed relievers with Caleb Ferguson out of the 2021 season following TJ surgery, and Scott Alexander is no longer dependable. Look for Dodgers to re-sign McGee.
- Blake Treinen (reliever): 32-year old, right-handed power pitcher who regularly reaches 97 mph with his sinker, 94 mph cutter, and 89 mph slider. His career year was 2018 when he was the best closer in MLB — and that is not likely to ever be repeated. Nonetheless, he is a solid late-inning reliever (sometimes closer) and Dodgers will try to re-sign him…but, money and length of contract will be the deciding factor. Another team may outbid the Dodgers.
- Jimmy Nelson (reliever/starter): 31-year-old, right-handed pitcher who is above average talent — if he could stay healthy. Dodgers gambled in 2020, signing him to a contract with an option for 2021. Do not expect them to make the same mistake in 2021, although a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training might happen.
- Alex Wood (reliever/starter): Left-handed sinker, slider, changeup pitcher who has dealt with injuries since his career year in 2017. He was hit often and hard by opposing hitters during the 2020 regular season (6.39 ERA; opposing hitters batting average .385). Was his 2020 postseason performance (1.35 ERA) enough for the Dodgers to re-sign him as a reliever? Reportedly he wants to stay with the team and is onboard with pitching out of the bullpen. Being left-handed is a plus for Alex (see Jake McGee), but he will have to take a substantial cut in pay to remain a Dodger. Unlikely that he returns.
Position Players
- Kiké Hernández (utility): Wherever the Dodgers play the 29-year old Hernández defensively he provides them with gold glove quality play. In addition, he is an exceptional teammate on the field and in the clubhouse. For his career, Kiké is a tick-below-average MLB hitter and run producer. Look for the Dodgers to re-sign the popular player to a deal similar to Chris Taylor’s two-year, $13.4 million contract. Re-signing Hernandez could result in either Chris Taylor or AJ Pollock being traded.
- Joc Pederson (outfield): Forget the strikeouts, the all-or-nothing swing, and the inability to hit left-handed pitching, Joc is currently one of the best run creators in MLB. If you throw out the cardboard 2020 season that saw Joc dealing with emotional family issues, his Fangraphs runs created stat (wRC+) from his rookie season in 2015 are: 116; 128; 100; 126; and, 127. That is 20% above the runs created by the average ML hitters over the same 5-year period. For comparison purposes, Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt, and Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts were 19% above average over the same period. Nonetheless, in early February 2020, the Dodgers attempted to trade Joc (along with pitcher Ross Stripling) to the Angels for a package of prospects. And, the team has an over-abundance of left hand hitting position players. The odds are stacked against Pederson being re-signed, but there is one scenario that would keep him a Dodger. The team trades AJ Pollock and re-signs Kiké to platoon with Joc in left field.
- Justin Turner (third base): Let me be brief, Turner will re-sign with the Dodgers. MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a 2-year, $24 million contract for him to remain in LA. JT is no longer an everyday third baseman, but he can still hit, and his veteran leadership is invaluable. Whether or not the National League keeps the DH for 2021, Justin will remain a Dodger.
(Video capture courtesy of Fox Sports)
What do you think, Dodgers fans? Which players will the team re-sign for 2021?
Next, we will look at the players the Dodgers may pursue in free agency.
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Posted in 
Jesse,
don’t you think that if a Joc/Kike platoon was good enough, they never would have signed AJ to begin with. AJ just showed a 134OPS+ (matching his career high but with more slg) and they were trying to trade Joc BEFORE AJ produced, do you think they would give up on him now? i don’t. Also, AJ is getting $18M next year. you cant trade that w/out eating some. Joc will find a job but as he only plays one position, he’s not going to be higher on the depth chart than CT3. especially when CT3 has been his defensive replacement (yes, i saw that boot in game 4)i dont suspect Joc he gets an offer here. i do suspect Kike gets one but he’ll be far more valuable to teams with glaring holes up the middle.
Excellent points. Just reading this late on east coast. Will give you my thoughts tomorrow
OK, early morning, drinking my coffee and ready to go. We did not get home from granddaughter’s softball game until 10:00 last night.
First, here is my premise for re-signing Kiké. As of today, both Corey Seager and Chris Taylor will be free agents after the 2021 season, with the unproven Gavin Lux as the only fall back at shortstop. I believe the Dodgers will try to sign Hernádez to an extension similar to Taylor’s, perhaps as long as three years. That will make Taylor or Pollock expendable. I prefer Taylor over Pollock – less expensive, better defender, more versatile, and in Dodgers career an equivalent producer as Pollock (FanGraphs wRC+ in 2019 and 2020: Taylor 107 and 131; Pollock 108 and 132).
When the Dodgers signed Pollock it was to be its regular centerfielder, not a platoon partner in LF. But, his outfield defense has steadily declined since his Gold Glove year in 2015. As a Dodger, Pollock’s OF defense has been well below average. I think this is the time to trade him, perhaps packaging him with a prospect, or paying a portion of his 2020 salary. As you point out, Pollock’s contract could be an obstacle to a trade as he is owed $19M in 2021 if a full season is played. But, he is only owed $10M in 2022, with a $10M team option for 2023, and his AAV for CBT is. only $12M. Trading Taylor would be much easier, especially to a team that needs a shortstop.
Your points about Joc are certainly valid, but letting a known run producer walk away (possibly to the Giants) would be a mistake, IMO. I think the team will offer him at least a one year deal where he can rebuild his free agent value. Of course, there are many unknowns: Will the Dodgers move Gavin Lux to the outfield, unsatisfied with his middle infield defense; or are they confident that Edwin Rios, Zach Reks, or Matt Beaty can be a platoon partner in LF?
Enjoy discussing Dodgers baseball with you.
and i with you!
i agree that your offer to kike would be reasonable. i also believe someone else will offer more. he has his ring, now his attention turns to a baby on the way and a hurricane ravaged family in PR. although i hope, i dont expect any significant discount to stay. realistically, we cant keep every run producer, sign every FA, and keep every hand on the farm. it’s the very reason 2/3 of the AL CYA are our cast offs. something has to give and the logical progression is to raise kids to replace guys just like Joc (wRC+ 88 / -0.1 WAR by the way). if Beaty bounces back, he’s exactly that but with positional flex. as you note, there are several LH options to replace him. i would have tried to keep verdugo and send AJ and Joc to Bos, (this would have roughly washed the money for price) giving us a .300 hitter w/ wRC+ 126 and strong D at min wage, while freeing up a roster spot. that didnt happen. watching AJ turn into ManRam in left while verdugo becomes a star during the next couple of years will not be easy for me, but i’ll cry into my new Tshirt and hat 🙂 ). if joc goes to SF, we certainly know how to pitch to him. a steady diet of RHP and off speed stuff will sit him quite efficiently.
i do hope your granddaughter played well and had fun.
Great stuff jalex! You should be writing articles for Think Blue! Granddaughter did play well and had fun – starting catcher, then shifts to shortstop. By he way, she is a huge Dodger fan, asking for World Series Championship gear. Stay well, be safe, and chat with you soon.
kind words, thank you.
glad to hear.
same for you, look forward to it.