How is that for an attention grabber?

Flies directly in the face of baseball pundits, Las Vegas oddsmakers, and my own prediction of a World Championship for the 2020 Dodgers. There is a caveat to this gloomy forecast … if Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy continue to play as they have thus far this season. The team needs both players to play to their potential to reach the championship goal.

There are legitimate concerns with the health, youth, and inconsistency of the starting pitching staff, recent struggles of several relievers, and the statistically mediocre team defense. Nevertheless, these issues can be overcome if Bellinger and Muncy begin to play as they have in the past – both offensively and defensively.

Let’s begin with the basics – the pair’s respective slash lines (batting / on-base / slugging / on-base + slugging) for both players:

• Bellinger – .211/.292/.422/.714
• Muncy – .199/.342/.410/.752

These slash lines may be acceptable for defensive specialists whose value to a team lay in the runs they save above what is normally expected for their position. But for middle-of-the-batting-order players, those averages will not get the job done.

How have Bellinger and Muncy been performing with runners in scoring position? Bellinger is batting .189, and Muncy .152 in this critical stat; 13th and 14th respectively of the team’s active roster of position players. Statistically, Matt Beaty (.385) or Kiké Hernandez (.308) are both much better than either Cody or Max with runners in scoring position. OUCH!

Fangraphs has developed another statistical measure to value a hitter, wRC+ that weights the type of hits (single, double, triple, home run) while adjusting for ballpark effects. Each year the values are adjusted so that the value of an average major league hitter equals 100. In 2019, Bellinger’s wRC+ was 162, or 62% above average; Muncy’s was 134. Bellinger’s 2020 rate is 91, nine percentage points below average, and a whopping 71 percentage points below last season. Thanks to Muncy’s 16.5% walk rate, his wRC+ has only dropped from 134 to 112.

Then there is the very subjective eye-test. Muncy easily passes this test as his swing mechanics appear to be sound, and there is no question about his hustle. If anything, Muncy may be trying too hard, putting more pressure upon himself than anyone else.

The Bellinger eye-test? He regularly takes some of the worst looking swings of anyone playing MLB, usually using a vicious, flying-open, uppercut swing, often ending with some form of slap-and-go style reminiscent of ex-Dodger Juan Pierre (albeit with less contact). Hustle? Comes and goes with Cody. There are times when he reminds older fans of the ‘3-Dog’ Willie Davis running the bases and chasing down long fly balls in centerfield; then there are the occasions when his jogging to first base (instead of running it out) on an infield ground ball, which is infuriating.

Legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden (GOAT) had players like Cody in mind when he said: “Don’t measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.”

Where Muncy is a blue-collar type player who will do whatever is necessary to win games for the Dodgers, Bellinger is blessed with five-tool talent comparable to the very best players ever to play the game. The Dodgers need both if the team is to fulfill its potential to win the 2020 World Series.

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